MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

24 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Targeting LT Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2686 LT Weekly Bear Channel top (Off 2008 High)

*RES 3: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014

*RES 2: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 1: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2302 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 2: $1.2213 Low Jan 22 

*SUP 3: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2111 Hourly support Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips has now resulted in fresh 2018 and 3+yr

highs and adds support to the case for a test of the LT weekly bear channel top

around $1.2686. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger band top ($1.2373) remain

key concerns for bulls. Bears now look for a close below $1.2270 to gain

breathing room and below $1.2156 to hint at a correction back to $1.1857-1.1914

with below $1.2075 to confirm.

     CABLE TECHS: 200-WMA Now The Focus

*RES 4: $1.4612 Low June 21 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4397 200-WMA 

*RES 2: $1.4349 Low June 20 2016 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.4152 Weekly Bull channel top

*PRICE: $1.4027 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3962 Hourly support Jan 23 

*SUP 2: $1.3914 Low Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $1.3837 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 4: $1.3739 Low Jan 16

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on $1.4006 took its toll with close above that sees bulls

targeting the 200-WMA although the weekly bull channel top may slow the move.

O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls. Layers of support

accumulating add to bullish confidence with bears now needing a close below

$1.3914 to hint at a correction back to the 21-DMA ($1.3671) with below $1.3837

to confirm.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Initial Focus Shifts To Y109.52

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.76 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 1: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23

*PRICE: Y109.89 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.67 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Y109.52 Low Sept 15, Daily Bear Channel base 

*SUP 3: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: Y104.95 Low Now 10 2016

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of the 200-DMA (Y111.76) last week left the

pair looking a little heavy and immediate focus now on Y109.52 following the

break of Y110.18. Bears continue to look for a close below Y109.52 to add weight

to the case for a test of 2017 lows. O/S daily studies remain a concern for

bears. Bulls need a close above Y110.55 to ease bearish pressure and hint at a

correction back to Y111.23-76 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Supporting, Y134.81 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5, Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*RES 1: Y135.71 Hourly resistance Jan 23

*PRICE: Y135.33 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.22 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 3: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: The recovery form dips below the 55-DMA and channel base in recent

weeks sees the pair supported ahead of the 21-DMA. The Y134.81 support remains

key. Bears still need a close below Y134.81 to ease bullish pressure and shift

focus back to the 21-WMA (133.34) and 100-DMA (Y133.25). Below the 100-DMA

shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03. While Y134.81 supports focus remains on the

close above Y136.62 needed to confirm focus on Y139.02-141.05.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8869 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8841 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8796 High Jan 23

*PRICE: Gbp0.8776 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8690 Monthly Low Dec 8 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8568 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8869) and

rejections ahead of Gbp0.8928 resulted in a sell-off and closes below key DMAs

that sees focus back on Gbp0.8690-0.8759. Bears look for a close below Gbp0.8690

to reconfirm a bearish bias and target tests of Gbp0.8313-80 where 2017 lows are

noted. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to ease renewed bearish pressure.

Above Gbp0.8928 shifts initial focus to Gbp0.8981-0.9048.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Hesitation A Concern For Bulls

*RES 4: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 3: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 2: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*RES 1: $0.8038 - 2018 High Jan 19

*PRICE: $0.8011 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 2: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 3: $0.7916 - High Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was again lacking on Friday's 2018 & 4mth highs

which is a concern with daily studies looking to correct from O/B. The break of

$0.7959 lacked follow through Thursday with bears needing a close below $0.7916

to target a correction back to $0.7774-0.7874 where the 100-DMA is noted. While

$0.7916 supports bulls remain focused on 2017 highs and then $0.8295 2015 highs

on a close above $0.8162.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Targeting 88.125

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.704 - High Jan 22 

*RES 2: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 1: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24

*PRICE: 89.887 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014

*SUP 2: 89.563 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*SUP 4: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped ahead of 91.011 has taken its toll and

resulted in a break of 90.113 adding weight to the case for a move targeting

88.125 Dec 2014 monthly lows with O/S daily studies remaining their key concern.

Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need a close above

90.294 to gain breathing room and above 91.011 to hint at a correction initially

targeting 91.526-751.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.571 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 

*RES 3: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 2: 2.672 - 2018 High Jan 22 

*RES 1: 2.639 - Hourly resistance Jan 23

*PRICE: 2.621 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.611 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 2: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.541 - Hourly support Jan 17

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 3+ year highs lacked follow through and remained capped

ahead of 2.692 with the sell-off leaving the yield looking a little offered. The

2.571 support remains key with bears needing a close below to hint at a

correction back to 2.489-523 where the 21-DMA (2.523) is noted. Very O/B daily

studies add weight to the case for a correction. Bulls need a close above 2.692

to confirm focus on 2.763-821 where the daily bull channel top is situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Above $65.17 Initially Targets $69.54 

*RES 4: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 

*RES 3: $65.81 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance 

*RES 1: $64.88 - 2018 High Jan 23

*PRICE: $64.46 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $64.19 - Hourly support Jan 23 

*SUP 2: $63.70 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 

*SUP 4: $62.23 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips so far this week provides bulls comfort

although the lack of follow through on fresh 2018 and 3+yr highs is a concern

when combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B. Support layers

building see bears now needing a close below $63.70 to gain breathing room.

Overall a close below $62.05 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, ending

bullish hopes and shifting focus back to the 55-DMA ($59.17).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1344.5

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 1: $1344.5 - 2018 High Jan 15

*PRICE: $1341.0 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 2: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 3: $1320.5 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: Gold was rejected ahead of recent 2018 highs last Wed with the

sell-off so far lacking follow through and bulls taking comfort in recovering

lost ground. Bulls still need a close above $1344.5 to reconfirm focus on 2017

and then 2016 highs. Layers of support remain with bears looking for a close

below $1315.4 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target $1289.5-1293.5 where

55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]