MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2322 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014

*RES 3: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 2: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 1: $1.2459 Hourly resistance Jan 25 now support

*PRICE: $1.2414 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2362 Low Jan 25 

*SUP 2: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 4: $1.2213 Low Jan 22

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection ahead of $1.2569 sees the pair looking

heavy which is less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/B

and the Bollinger band top ($1.2460) limiting follow through. Bears now look for

a close below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2092-1.2156 where the

21-DMA ($1.2151) is noted. While $1.2322 supports bulls remain focused on the LT

weekly bear channel top around $1.2686.

     CABLE TECHS: Rejected Ahead Of 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1.4397 200-WMA 

*RES 3: $1.4349 Low June 20 2016 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4344 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: $1.4231 Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.4170 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4073 Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 2: $1.3962 Hourly support Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $1.3914 Low Jan 23 

*SUP 4: $1.3837 Low Jan 19

*COMMENTARY: Gains continued Thursday only to be aggressively rejected ahead of

the 200-WMA. Correcting O/B daily studies remain a concern for bulls and

increase correction risk. Bears now need a close below $1.4073 to shift initial

focus back to $1.3914-62. Initial resistance is noted at $1.4231 with bulls

needing a close above to gain breathing room. A close above the 200-WMA then

targets $1.5018 June 2016 monthly highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.18 Resistance Key

*RES 4: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y109.76 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*PRICE: Y109.46 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.14 Hourly resistance Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 2: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 

*SUP 3: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base 

*SUP 4: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive move lower from last week's highs saw the pair

closing below the daily bear channel base and Y109.52 support with immediate

focus now on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and the weekly triangle base are

located. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y108.96) remain concerns. Bulls

now need a close above Y110.18 to target a correction back to Y111.22-98 where

key DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below Y109.14 to gain breathing room.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.81 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.73 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 1: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*PRICE: Y135.89 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y136.41 Hourly support Jan 25 

*SUP 2: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 3: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: The Y134.81 support confirmed significance with the pair bouncing

from ahead of this level following dips below the 21-DMA (Y135.32). Bears need a

close below Y134.81 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-WMA

(133.36) and 100-DMA (Y133.37). Below the 100-DMA targets Y130.59-132.03. While

Y134.81 supports focus remains on the close above Y136.62 needed to confirm

focus on Y139.02-141.05.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8796

*RES 4: Gbp0.8884 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8861 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8845 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8796 High Jan 23

*PRICE: Gbp0.8758 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8719 Hourly support Jan 25 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8649 Low May 8 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 8mth lows lacked follow through Thursday with the

Bollinger band base noted at Gbp0.8727. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8796

to ease bearish pressure and see a correction back to Gbp0.8845-84 where the

bear channel top and key DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S daily studies

increase the risk of a correction. While Gbp0.8796 caps bears retain immediate

focus on Gbp0.8599-0.8649.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Aggressively Rejected Ahead Of 2017 High

*RES 4: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 3: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 2: $0.8105 - Hourly resistance Jan 25

*RES 1: $0.8066 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.8052 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 4: $0.7920 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of the 2017 high is a concern for bulls & when

combined with correcting O/B daily studies increases the risk of a correction

back to $0.7874-0.7920 where the 21-DMA ($0.7920) is noted. Initial resistance

is noted at $0.8066 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.8162 to shift focus to

$0.8295-0.8542 where the weekly bull channel top ($0.8450) is noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 90.113

*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22 

*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 1: 89.581 - Hourly support Jan 24 now resistance

*PRICE: 89.207 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 88.861 - Hourly resistance Jan 25 now support

*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 3: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 4: 87.701 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped ahead of 91.011 took its toll and resulted

in a break of 90.113 adding weight to the case for a move targeting 88.125 Dec

2014 monthly lows with O/S daily studies remaining their key concern. Layers of

resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above 90.113 to

gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA (91.139) to shift focus to 92.617-964

where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Rejection A Concern

*RES 4: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 

*RES 3: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 2: 2.672 - 2018 High Jan 22 

*RES 1: 2.650 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.624 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.609 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.539 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 2.692 resistance remains a concern for

bulls with momentum divergence noted and daily studies correcting from very O/B

levels weighing. Bears now need a close below 2.609 to ease bullish pressure and

2.571 to hint at a correction back to 2.489-539 where the 21-DMA (2.539) is

noted. Above 2.692 to is needed to confirm focus on 2.763-821 where the daily

bull channel top (2.782) is situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Initial Focus On $69.54 

*RES 4: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 

*RES 3: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $66.46 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $65.70 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $65.40 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $64.87 - Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 2: $64.19 - Hourly support Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $63.70 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 4: $62.88 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips so far this week provides bulls comfort

although the lack of follow through on fresh 2018 and 3+yr highs is a concern

when combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B. The $64.87 support

is key today. Bears need a close below to ease bullish pressure and then below

$62.78 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially focusing on $58.82-60.75.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1339.2 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 17 

*RES 3: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 2: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 1: $1359.7 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016

*PRICE: $1352.2 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1342.7 - Low Jan 25 

*SUP 2: $1339.2 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 3: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 4: $1327.5 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the mid Jan correction has resulted in fresh 2018

& 18mth highs with immediate bullish focus currently on 2016 highs and a close

above then targeting $1391.8-1433.3. The lack of topside follow through is a

concern when combined with modestly O/B studies. Bears now look for a close

below $1339.2 to add weight to the case for a correction back to the 21-DMA.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]