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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

29 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2322 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014
*RES 3: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014
*RES 2: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25
*RES 1: $1.2494 High Jan 26
*PRICE: $1.2411 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2362 Low Jan 25 
*SUP 2: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24 
*SUP 4: $1.2213 Low Jan 22
*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through and hesitation ahead of $1.2569
remains less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/B and the
Bollinger band top ($1.2491) limiting follow through. Bears look for a close
below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2092-1.2171 where the 21-DMA
($1.2171) is noted. While $1.2322 supports bulls remain focused on the LT weekly
bear channel top around $1.2661.
     CABLE TECHS: Rejected Ahead Of 200-WMA Repeatedly
*RES 4: $1.4385 200-WMA 
*RES 3: $1.4349 Low June 20 2016 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.4344 2018 High Jan 25 
*RES 1: $1.4208 Hourly resistance Jan 26
*PRICE: $1.4136 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4073 Hourly support Jan 24 
*SUP 2: $1.3962 Hourly support Jan 23 
*SUP 3: $1.3914 Low Jan 23 
*SUP 4: $1.3837 Low Jan 19
*COMMENTARY: Gains continued Thursday only to be aggressively rejected ahead of
the 200-WMA with the pair again capped ahead of this level Friday. Correcting
O/B daily studies remain a concern and increase correction risk. Bears need a
close below $1.4073 to shift initial focus back to $1.3914-62. A close above the
200-WMA is needed to target $1.5018 June 2016 monthly highs.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.18 Resistance Key
*RES 4: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23 
*RES 3: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y109.76 High Jan 26 
*RES 1: Y109.05 Hourly resistance Jan 26
*PRICE: Y108.77 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 
*SUP 2: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 
*SUP 3: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base 
*SUP 4: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive move lower from last week's highs saw the pair
closing below the daily bear channel base and Y109.52 support with immediate
focus now on Y107.31-64 where 2017 lows and the weekly triangle base are
located. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y108.44) remain concerns. Bulls
need a close above Y110.18 to target a correction back to Y111.14-98 where key
DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below Y108.12 to add weight to their case.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Topside Failures Weighing
*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015
*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5
*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8
*RES 1: Y135.46 Hourly resistance Jan 26
*PRICE: Y134.96 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y134.53 Low Jan 26 
*SUP 2: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 3: Y134.02 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y133.86 Daily bull channel base (off Aug 18 low)
*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of the Y136.32-62 region have taken their
toll with a break of Y134.81 increasing the risk of a correction that initially
targets Y133.40-134.02 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are
situated. Initial resistance is noted at Y135.46 but bulls continue to look for
a close above Y136.62 to confirm focus on Y139.02-141.05 monthly highs last seen
in 2015.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8796
*RES 4: Gbp0.8884 Daily Bear channel top 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8858 100-DMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8846 200-DMA 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8796 High Jan 23
*PRICE: Gbp0.8777 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8719 Hourly support Jan 25 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8649 Low May 8 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 8mth lows lacked follow through Thursday with the
Bollinger band base noted at Gbp0.8724. Bulls still need a close above Gbp0.8796
to ease bearish pressure and see a correction back to Gbp0.8831-80 where the
bear channel top and key DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S daily studies
increase the risk of a correction. In saying that, while Gbp0.8796 caps bears
retain immediate focus on Gbp0.8599-0.8649.
     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.8162 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15
*RES 3: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015
*RES 2: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26
*RES 1: $0.8123 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: $0.8094 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.8041 - Hourly support Jan 26 
*SUP 2: $0.8002 - Low Jan 26 
*SUP 3: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24 
*SUP 4: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23
*COMMENTARY: Bulls reconfirmed dominance following Thursday's topside rejection
with fresh 2018 and 2+ year highs. The $0.8162 resistance remains key. Bulls
continue to look for a close above $0.8162 to shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542
where the weekly bull channel top ($0.8455) is noted. Layers of support continue
to follow the pair higher with bears needing a close below $0.7990 to ease
bullish pressure and below $0.7916 to shift focus lower.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 90.113
*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22 
*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 
*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 
*RES 1: 89.581 - Hourly support Jan 24 now resistance
*PRICE: 89.126 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 88.723 - Low Jan 26
*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25
*SUP 3: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014
*SUP 4: 87.576 - Weekly Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Remaining capped ahead of 91.011 took its toll and resulted in a
break of 90.113 adding weight to the case for a move targeting 88.125 Dec 2014
monthly lows with O/S daily studies remaining their key concern. Layers of
resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above 90.113 to
gain breathing room and above 91.011 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift
focus to 92.519-941 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.692 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 
*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 
*RES 2: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 
*RES 1: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014
*PRICE: 2.680 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26 
*SUP 2: 2.609 - Low Jan 24 
*SUP 3: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 
*SUP 4: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support remains key with dips last week remaining
supported around this level and immediate pressure remaining on 2.692. Bulls
continue to look for a close above 2.692 to confirm focus on 2.748-912 where the
daily bull channel top (2.787) is situated. Bears need a close below 2.609 to
ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA (2.553) to initially pressure
2.482-522 where the bull channel base is noted.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Initial Focus On $69.54 
*RES 4: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 
*RES 3: $67.66 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 2: $66.90 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25
*PRICE: $66.37 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $65.95 - Hourly support Jan 26 
*SUP 2: $64.87 - Hourly support Jan 24 
*SUP 3: $64.19 - Hourly support Jan 23 
*SUP 4: $63.70 - Low Jan 23
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips last week provided bulls comfort although
the lack of follow through on fresh 2018 and 3+yr highs is a concern when
combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B. The $64.87 support
remains key this week. Bears need a close below to ease bullish pressure and
then below $62.78 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially focus on
$58.82-60.75 where the 55-DMA ($59.51) is found.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1339.2 Support Now Key
*RES 4: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 17 
*RES 3: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 
*RES 2: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 
*RES 1: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance
*PRICE: $1349.0 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1342.7 - Low Jan 25 
*SUP 2: $1339.2 - Low Jan 24 
*SUP 3: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23 
*SUP 4: $1330.0 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the mid Jan correction has resulted in fresh 2018
& 18mth highs with immediate bullish focus currently on 2016 highs and a close
above then targeting $1391.8-1433.3. The lack of topside follow through is a
concern when combined with modestly O/B studies. Bears now look for a close
below $1339.2 to add weight to the case for a correction and below the 21-DMA to
target $1302.5-1305.6.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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