MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

30 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2322 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 2: $1.2494 High Jan 26

*RES 1: $1.2435 High Jan 29

*PRICE: $1.2371 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 3: $1.2213 Low Jan 22 

*SUP 4: $1.2187 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through and hesitation ahead of $1.2569

remains less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/B and the

Bollinger band top ($1.2506) limiting follow through. Bears look for a close

below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2092-1.2213 where the 21-DMA is

noted. While $1.2322 supports bulls remain focused on the LT weekly bear channel

top ($1.2661) but need a close above $1.2435 to gain breathing room.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3914

*RES 4: $1.4344 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 2: $1.4172 Hourly resistance Jan 26 

*RES 1: $1.4096 Hourly resistance Jan 29

*PRICE: $1.4041 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3962 Hourly support Jan 23 

*SUP 2: $1.3914 Low Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $1.3804 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3837 Low Jan 19

*COMMENTARY: The 200-WMA ($1.4385) capped last week with the pair now looking

offered. Correcting O/B daily studies remain a concern and add weight to the

bearish case. Bears are now focused on the $1.3914-62 supports. Below $1.3914

shifts initial focus back to $1.3720-1.3804 where the 21-DMA is noted. Bulls now

need a close above $1.4208 to gain breathing room and initially target 2018 high

retests.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Support Emerging, Y110.18 Resistance Key

*RES 4: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 3: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y109.76 High Jan 26 

*RES 1: Y109.20 Hourly resistance Jan 29

*PRICE: Y108.76 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.50 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 2: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 3: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 

*SUP 4: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base

*COMMENTARY: Immediate bearish focus remains on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and

the weekly triangle base are located. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base

(Y108.23) remain concerns and currently limit follow through. Support layers are

starting to emerge, but bulls still need a close above Y110.18 to ease bearish

pressure and target a correction back to Y110.97-111.98 where key DMAs are

noted. Bears need a close below Y108.12 to add weight to their case.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Topside Failures Weighing, 100-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 3: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*RES 2: Y135.46 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 1: Y135.01 Hourly resistance Jan 29

*PRICE: Y134.54 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.31 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 2: Y134.03 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y133.91 Daily bull channel base (off Aug 18 low) 

*SUP 4: Y133.43 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of Y136.32-62 took their toll with a break

of Y134.81 increasing the risk of a correction initially to Y133.43-134.03 where

55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are situated. Initial resistance is

noted at Y135.01 but bulls continue to look for a close above Y136.62 to confirm

focus on Y139.02-141.05 monthly highs last seen in 2015. Bears need a close

below the 100-DMA to target Y130.26-132.03 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bear Channel Top Now Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8876 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8856 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8848 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8829 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8811 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8790 Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8754 Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8719 Hourly support Jan 25 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 8mth lows lacked follow through Thursday with the

Bollinger base noted at Gbp0.8725. The recovery has resulted in an easing of

bearish pressure and immediate focus back on key DMAs and the bear channel top.

Bulls now need a close above the bear channel top to end bearish hopes and shift

focus to layers of resistance Gbp0.8928-0.9048. Bears now need a close below

Gbp0.8754 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8685-0.8719 where 2018 lows are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.8162 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15

*RES 3: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 2: $0.8137 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26

*PRICE: $0.8076 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8059 - Hourly resistance Jan 26 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.8041 - Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 3: $0.8002 - Low Jan 26 

*SUP 4: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: Bulls reconfirmed dominance following Thursday's topside rejection

with fresh 2018 and 2+ year highs. The $0.8162 resistance remains key. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $0.8162 to shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542

where the weekly bull channel top ($0.8456) is noted. Layers of support continue

to follow the pair higher with bears needing a close below $0.8059 to ease

immediate bullish pressure and below $0.7916 to target $0.7229-0.7802.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 90.113

*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22 

*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 1: 89.619 - High Jan 29

*PRICE: 89.409 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 88.723 - Low Jan 26

*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 3: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 4: 87.576 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Remaining capped ahead of 91.011 took its toll and resulted in a

break of 90.113 adding weight to the case for a move targeting 88.125 Dec 2014

monthly lows with correcting O/S daily studies their key concern. Layers of

resistance remain and weigh. Bulls need a close above 90.113 to gain breathing

room and above 91.011 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus to

92.431-918 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Initial Focus On 2.748-912

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 2: 2.792 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014

*PRICE: 2.709 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.690 - Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support has now provided the base for fresh 2018 & 3+

year highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.748-912 and overall focus on 3.041

2014 highs (Jan 2). The Bollinger band top (2.744) is a concern and currently

limits follow through. Layers of support are building with bears needing a close

below 2.676 to ease bullish pressure and below 2.654 to hint at a correction to

2.568-609 where key supports and the 21-DMA are noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below $64.87 

*RES 4: $67.95 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $66.78 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: $65.68 - Hourly resistance Jan 29

*PRICE: $65.05 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $64.87 - Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 2: $64.19 - Hourly support Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $63.70 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 4: $63.45 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips last week provided bulls comfort although

the lack of follow through on fresh 2018 and 3+yr highs is a concern when

combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B. The $64.87 support

remains key this week. Bears need a close below to ease bullish pressure and

then below $62.78 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially focus on

$58.82-60.75 where the 55-DMA ($59.66) is found.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below 21-DMA Targets $1302.5-1305.6

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 1: $1345.5 - Hourly resistance Jan 29

*PRICE: $1337.5 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23, 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's 2018 high remains

a concern for bulls and leaves gold looking a little heavy. Daily studies

correcting are also weighing. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to

shift initial focus to $1302.5-1305.6. Initial resistance is noted at $1345.5

but bulls need a close above $1352.3 to gain breathing room and above $1374.9 to

confirm focus on $ $1391.8-1433.3.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]