MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Weekly Bear Chanel Top Lurking Above

*RES 4: $1.2661 LT Weekly Bear Channel top (Off 2008 High)

*RES 3: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014

*RES 2: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 1: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*PRICE: $1.2498 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2475 High Jan 31 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2425 Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 3: $1.2378 Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 4: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2322 support confirmed significance with bulls taking

comfort in the bounce Tuesday. Thursdays gains see focus back on 2018 highs.

Bulls look for a close above $1.2536 to add support to the case for a tests of

the LT weekly bear channel top. Support layers are building but bears need a

close below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2156-1.2250 where the

21-DMA ($1.2250) is noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Pressuring $1.4286-1.4386 Region

*RES 4: $1.4425 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1.4386 200-WMA 

*RES 2: $1.4344 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: $1.4286 High Jan 26

*PRICE: $1.4260 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4188 Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 2: $1.4119 Low Jan 31 

*SUP 3: $1.4096 Hourly resistance Jan 29 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3977 Low Jan 30

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support layers emerging following the dip

back to $1.3977 Tuesday with immediate focus returned to the $1.4286-1.4386

region where 2018 highs and the 200-WMA are situated. A close above the 200-WMA

was last seen in 2014. Bears now need a close below $1.4188 to gain breathing

room and below $1.4119 to shift focus back to $1.3907-77 where the 21-DMA is

noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y110.18

*RES 4: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.51 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y109.76 High Jan 26

*PRICE: Y109.62 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.23 Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 2: Y108.87 Hourly support Jan 31 

*SUP 3: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 4: Y108.27 Low Jan 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in hesitation ahead of recent 2018 lows with

follow through lacking as support emerges on dips. Bears still need a close

below Y108.12 to reconfirm initial focus on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and the

weekly triangle base are located. Bulls look for a close above Y110.18 to ease

bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to confirm focus on Y111.22-112.66 where

key DMAs and bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Targeting Y139.02-141.05

*RES 4: Y139.57 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 21 2015

*RES 2: Y137.58 High Aug 26 2015

*RES 1: Y137.10 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y137.02 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y136.64 Hourly support Feb 2 

*SUP 2: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 3: Y135.37 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y135.10 Hourly support Jan 31a

*COMMENTARY: The Y133.53-134.15 support confirmed significance Tuesday. The

recovery has resulted in fresh 2018 & 2+yr highs and confirms overall bullish

focus on Y139.02-141.05 where monthly highs are located. Support layers

accumulating add to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below Y135.95 to

ease immediate bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to return focus to

Y133.57-134.15 where 55 & 100-DMAs and bull channel base are found.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Key DMAs Capping

*RES 4: Gbp0.8852 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8833 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8808 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8776 Hourly resistance Feb 2

*PRICE: Gbp0.8761 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8649 Low May 8 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort as the recovery from 2018 lows remains capped

ahead of key DMAs and the daily bear channel top. Bulls need a close above the

bear channel top to end bearish hopes and shift focus to layers of resistance

Gbp0.8928-0.9048. The pair remains heavy following topside failures with bears

now initially focused on 2018 lows and then the 100-WMA (Gbp0.8578) on a close

below.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Looking For Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26

*RES 3: $0.8118 - High Jan 29

*RES 2: $0.8079 - Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 1: $0.8046 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*PRICE: $0.8003 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7985 - Low Feb 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7970 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 4: $0.7916 - High Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 remains a concern given daily

studies correcting from O/B. Bulls look for a close above $0.8079 to gain

breathing room and above $0.8162 to shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542 where the

weekly bull channel top ($0.8456) is noted. The break of $0.8040 following

Wednesday's topside failure leaves the pair looking heavy and risks a correction

to $0.7802-74 with below the 21-DMA to add weight to their case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 88.438 Targets 86.879-87.627

*RES 4: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 3: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 2: 89.637 - High Jan 30 

*RES 1: 89.328 - High Feb 1

*PRICE: 88.726 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 2: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 3: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: 87.526 - Weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The index remains heavy with immediate focus on 2018 lows and the

break lower needed to add weight to the case for a test of 86.879-87.627 where

the LT bear channel base and monthly lows are situated. O/S daily studies remain

a concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above 86.637 to gain breathing room

and above the 21-DMA (90.387) to hint at a move back to 91.751.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressuring Bull Channel Top

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 2: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 1: 2.806 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 2.793 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.754 - High Jan 31 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.696 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 3: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for repeated 2018 & 3+ year

highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.806-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014

highs. The Bollinger band top (2.800) and O/B studies remain concerns for bulls.

Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.754 to gain

breathing room and below 2.654 to shift focus back to 2.571-609 where the 21-DMA

(2.598) is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Above $66.66 Targets $68.42-71.27 

*RES 4: $71.27 - Weekly bull channel top 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 

*RES 2: $68.42 - Daily bull channel top 

*RES 1: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25

*PRICE: $66.09 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $65.05 - Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 2: $64.63 - Low Feb 1 

*SUP 3: $63.89 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $63.67 - Low Jan 31

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from dips back to the 21-DMA

with bullish focus back on the break of $66.66 needed to shift focus to

$68.42-71.27 where daily and weekly bull channel tops are situated. The

Bollinger top ($66.69) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Bears now need a close below $64.63 to ease renewed bullish

pressure.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1331.2 Targets $1302.5-1305.6

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1352.3 - High Jan 29

*PRICE: $1347.7 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1335.5 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 4: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: After a lack of follow through on last week's 2018 high bulls take

comfort in support emerging on dips back to the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close

below $1331.2 to shift initial focus to $1302.5-1305.6. Initial resistance is

noted at $1352.3 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and

above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $ $1391.8-1433.3.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]