MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372-1.2461 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*PRICE: $1.2312 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2259 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2205 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $1.2167 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel

top ($1.2652) off 2008 highs sees immediate focus on the $1.2092-1.2205 support

region. Below $1.2092 is needed to end bullish hopes and initially target

$1.1915-78 where the 100-DMA is located. Layers of resistance are weighing with

bulls needing a close above $1.2372 to gain breathing room and above $1.2461 to

shift focus to 2018 highs.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.4086-1.4150 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4150 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4086 Hourly support Feb 15 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.4049 High Feb 19

*PRICE: $1.4002 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3957 Hourly support Feb 23 

*SUP 2: $1.3903 Hourly support Feb 22 

*SUP 3: $1.3858 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: $1.3794 Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low sees the pair flirting with the

21-DMA ($1.4001) as bulls look for a close above to confirm a break and hint at

a move back to $1.4286-1.4349 with above $1.4150 to confirm. Initial support is

noted at $1.3957 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and

below $1.3858 to reconfirm initial focus on $1.3720-63 where the 55-DMA

($1.3759) is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.03-42 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.07 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.28 Hourly resistance Feb 26

*PRICE: Y106.60 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.42 Hourly support Feb 19 

*SUP 2: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 3: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows and Y105.50 stalled ahead of Y108.03-42

and retains focus on the Y105.50 support. Bears continue to look for a close

below Y105.50 to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16. The Y108.03-42 resistance

region remains key. Bulls need a close above Y108.42 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and bear channel top, hinting at a correction to Y110.47 and above

Y109.78 to confirm. Correcting O/S daily studies remain a concern for bears.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Close Below Y130.59 To Target Y127.54-129.34

*RES 4: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.78 Hourly resistance Feb 21

*RES 1: Y132.06 Hourly resistance Feb 22

*PRICE: Y131.25 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.91 2018 Low Feb 23 

*SUP 2: Y130.59 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 3: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: The pair is flirting with the 200-DMA (Y131.22) as the correction

lower from 2018 highs continues to result in fresh 2018 lows. Bears now look for

a close below Y130.59 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and shift initial focus

to Y127.54-129.34 where monthly lows are noted. Bulls now need a close above

Y132.06 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA (Y134.29) to target 2018

highs (Y137.50). Very O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8776 & Gbp0.8928 Levels Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8880 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8835 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8806 Hourly resistance Feb 23

*PRICE: Gbp0.8791 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in rallies remaining capped ahead of the 200-DMA

with bulls needing a close above to return immediate focus to Gbp0.8928.

Previous attempts to challenge this level have lacked follow through. A close

above Gbp0.8928 is needed to target Gbp0.9013-48. While the 200-DMA caps bears

focus on the break of Gbp0.8776 needed to confirm focus on Gbp0.8617-85 where

the 100-WMA and 2018 low are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7729-79 Support Region Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $0.7879 - Hourly resistance Feb 21

*PRICE: $0.7861 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7779 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The break of $0.7867 last week sees initial focus on $0.7229-0.7779

where 100 & 200-DMAs are located although follow through has been lacking. Bears

continue to look for a close below $0.7729 to end bullish hopes and shift focus

to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls still need a close above $0.7879 to ease bearish

pressure and above $0.7989 to return focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are

noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.442 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18 

*RES 2: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 1: 90.235 - High Feb 22

*PRICE: 89.760 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 21-DMA (89.546) eased bearish pressure with

above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to

94.219-95.149. The lack of follow through is less than ideal with bears needing

a close below 89.442 to signal a false break of the 21-DMA, return initial focus

to 2018 lows and overall focus to 86.515-878 where the weekly bear channel base,

Nov 2014 monthly low LT rising weekly TL are situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.808-844 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.977 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 1: 2.904 - Low Feb 22 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.868 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.844 - Hourly breakout level Feb 14 

*SUP 2: 2.808 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs is less than

ideal for bulls who are focused on the 3.041 2014 high. A close above 3.041 is

needed to initially focus on 3.073-223 where July 2011 monthly highs are

situated. O/B studies and the Bollinger top remain concerns. In saying that,

bears need a close below 2.844 to gain breathing room and below 2.808 to shift

initial focus to 2.758.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Above $63.93 To Target $66.39-65 

*RES 4: $66.65 - 2018 High Jan 22 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.39 - High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 1: $63.93 - High Feb 6

*PRICE: $63.77 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $63.09 - High Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 2: $62.12 - Hourly resistance Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 3: $60.76 - Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The $60.57 support confirmed significance with the bounce from

ahead seeing the contract gain traction above the 21-DMA ($62.57). Bulls look

for a close above $63.93 to confirm a shift in focus to $66.39-65 where 2018

highs are situated. Support layers are following J18 higher with bears now

needing a close below $63.09 to gain breathing room and below $60.57 to shift

focus back to $57.90-58.39 where the 100-DMA is noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above $1351.3 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 1: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $1336.3 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1325.5 - Low Feb 23 

*SUP 2: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $1314.9 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: Gold is currently flirting with the 21-DMA ($1334.4) as bulls look

for a close above $1336.2 to confirm a break and ease immediate bearish

pressure. Bulls then look for a close above $1251.3 to target $1367.3-1374.9.

Bears now need a close below Friday's $1325.5 low to gain breathing room and

below the 55-DMA to confirm focus on $1299.1-1305.9 where the 100-DMA ($1299.1)

is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]