MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

1 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressuring 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 3: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 2: $1.2336 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2259 Low Feb 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2193 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2176 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2167 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2018 High Jan 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus is now on the $1.2092-1.2176 support region

following the recent topside failures ahead of $1.2372. Below $1.2092 is needed

to end bullish hopes and initially target $1.1915-91 where the 100-DMA is

located. Bulls initially look for a close above $1.2259 to gain breathing room.

Overall a close above $1.2372 confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs, and above $1.2461

is needed to shift focus to 2018 highs.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3857 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1.3997 High Feb 27 

*RES 3: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 2: $1.3857 Low Feb 22 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3773 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3750 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3724 Low Jan 15 

*SUP 2: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3613 High Jan 3 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3458 2018 Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on pops above the 21-DMA ($1.3951) have

resulted in a sell-off with bearish focus now on the $1.3613-1.3724 support

region. Bears need a close below $1.3613 to shift focus to $1.3027 Oct monthly

lows. Layers of resistance are building with bulls now needing a close above

$1.3857 to gain breathing room and above $1.3940 to shift focus back to $1.4150.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Overall Focus Remains On Y98.95-101.16

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.76 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.68 High Feb 27 

*RES 1: Y106.93 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y106.78 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.36 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 2: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 3: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the key Y108.03-42 resistance region

has left the pair looking heavy. Bears continue to look for a close below

Y106.36 to add weight to the case for a retest of 2018 lows. A close below

Y105.50 remains needed to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16. Resistance layers

are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y108.42 to hint at a

correction to Y110.47 and above Y109.78 to confirm.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y130.59 Targets Y125.80-127.54

*RES 4: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance

*RES 3: Y131.70 Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*RES 2: Y131.45 Hourly support Feb 28a now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.57 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.20 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.43 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 3: Y128.50 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 6mth lows leave the pair looking heavy with overall

focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 & 200-WMAs which may

support along the way. Weekly studies have room to move before O/S is an issue.

Layers of resistance are following the pair lower with bulls now needing a close

above Y131.15 to gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to target a correction

back to Y132.94-134.23 where key DMAs are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8928

*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8889 High Feb 16 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8883 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8870 High Feb 20

*PRICE: Gbp0.8867 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8855 Hourly support Feb 28 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8824 Hourly support Feb 28a 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8811 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to layers of resistance Gbp0.8870-0.8928

where the 200-DMA and a bear channel top off Aug highs are located. Overall the

Gbp0.8928 resistance remains key. A close above Gbp0.8928 is needed to target

Gbp0.9013-48. While the 200-DMA caps bears retain the advantage but now need a

close below Gbp0.8811 to gain breathing room and below Gbp0.8771 to confirm

focus on Gbp0.8617-85 where the 100-WMA and 2018 low are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Key Levels Falling By The Wayside

*RES 4: $0.7868 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7819 - High Feb 28

*RES 2: $0.7784 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7752 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7721 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7611 - Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Key supports continue to crumble following the close below the

200-DMA with bears needing a close below $0.7729 to confirm focus on tests of

$0.7500 Dec lows. The Bollinger base is noted at $0.7721 and is the key concern

for bears with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance

accumulating add weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above $0.7819 to

ease bearish pressure and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 90.080 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9 

*RES 2: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.717 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.235 - High Feb 21 now support

*SUP 2: 90.080 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 now support

*SUP 3: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 4: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*COMMENTARY: The 89.442 support confirmed significance this week with the dip

Monday finding support ahead of this level and seeing immediate focus now on the

91.011-92.640 resistance region. Bulls still need a close above 92.640 to end

bearish hopes and shift focus to 94.076-95.149. Support layers building adds to

bullish confidence. Bears continue to look for a close below 98.080 to gain

breathing room.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.786 Targets 2.609-648

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.989 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.866 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.854 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.831 - Low Feb 26 

*SUP 3: 2.820 - Daily Bull channel base (Off 2017 low) 

*SUP 4: 2.786 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who are focused on the 3.041 2014 high. A close above 3.041

is needed to initially focus on 3.073-223 where July 2011 monthly highs are

situated. The 21-DMA is currently supporting with the 2.786-854 support region

key. Bears now look for a close below 2.786 to end bullish hopes and shift focus

back to 2.609-648 where the 55-DMA (2.642) is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Immediate Focus On $60.57 

*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 2: $61.95 - Hourly resistance Feb 28 

*RES 1: $61.75 - Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: $61.58 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.76 - Low Feb 22 

*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 4: $59.02 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Failure to better Monday's high and the hesitation ahead of $64.96

combined with O/B studies continues to weigh with bearish focus currently on the

close below $60.57 needed to shift focus back to $57.90-58.95 where the 100-DMA

and bull channel base are noted. Bulls now need a close above $63.58 to gain

breathing room and above $64.96 to target $66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus Shifts To 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1315.7 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1314.0 - Low Feb 27 

*SUP 2: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1300.4 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 21-DMA ($1332.7) and rejection

ahead of the $1344.7-1351.3 region took its toll with a sell-off and dips below

the 55-DMA ($1319.8) that shifts focus to the 100-DMA. Bears need a close below

the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to Dec lows ($1235.9) with below the 200-DMA

($1287.4) to confirm. Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing a

close above $1330.0 to gain breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]