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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
2 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hinting At Correction To $1.2327-1.2435
*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16
*RES 3: $1.2435 High Feb 19
*RES 2: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*RES 1: $1.2327 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1.2281 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2253 Hourly support Mar 1
*SUP 2: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support
*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1
*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2191) is
a concern for bears given modestly O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base at
$1.2164. The bounce hints at a correction back to $1.2327-1.2435 with a close
above needed to return initial focus to 2018 highs. The $1.2092 support remains
key. Bears need a close below to end bullish hopes and initially target
$1.1915-95 where the 100-DMA is located.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3857 Resistance Remains Key Today
*RES 4: $1.4069 High Feb 26
*RES 3: $1.3997 High Feb 27
*RES 2: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27
*RES 1: $1.3857 Low Feb 22 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3785 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3754 Hourly support Mar 1
*SUP 2: $1.3710 Low Mar 1
*SUP 3: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support
*SUP 4: $1.3613 High Jan 3 now support
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that followed Tuesday's rejection above the 21-DMA
($1.3930) resulted in fresh 2mth lows Thursday although follow through has been
lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($1.3739). The $1.3857 resistance
remains key with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above
$1.3940 to shift focus back to $1.4150. While $1.3857 caps bears focus on the
$1.3553-1.3612 region.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y105.50 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 3: Y107.61 21-DMA
*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1
*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance
*PRICE: Y106.06 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support
*SUP 2: Y105.32 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016
*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 has left the pair looking
heavy and retains immediate bearish focus on a retest of 2018 lows. A close
below Y105.50 remains needed to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16. Resistance
layers are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y108.03 to
confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a correction to Y109.79-110.47 with
above Y108.42 to confirm. Daily studies are well placed for fresh losses.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Finding Support Ahead Of 200-WMA
*RES 4: Y131.70 Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance
*RES 3: Y131.45 Hourly support Feb 28a now resistance
*RES 2: Y131.33 200-DMA
*RES 1: Y130.91 Low Feb 23 now resistance
*PRICE: Y130.30 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.61 200-WMA
*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6
*SUP 3: Y128.47 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18
*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2018 & 6mth lows leave the pair looking heavy with
overall focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 & 200-WMAs
which may support along the way. The Bollinger base is noted at Y129.20 and
remains unchallenged indicating the move isn't getting ahead of itself. Bulls
now need a close above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to
target a correction back to Y133.05-134.17 where key DMAs are situated.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8928
*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15
*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28
*RES 2: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12
*RES 1: Gbp0.8917 Bollinger band top
*PRICE: Gbp0.8908 @ 1030GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8885 200-DMA
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8866 High Feb 28 now support
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8835 Low Mar 1
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26
*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to Gbp0.8928 following the recovery from the
week's low. The close above the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8885) adds support to the bullish
case but a close above Gbp0.8928 is still needed to target Gbp0.9013-48. Daily
studies are well placed for gains. Layers of support are now a concern for bears
who look for a close below Gbp0.8835 to ease pressure on Gbp0.8928 and shift
initial focus back to Gbp0.8769 weekly lows so far.
AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $0.7694
*RES 4: $0.7870 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7819 - High Feb 28
*RES 2: $0.7785 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7772 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7757 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1
*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Key supports crumbled following the close below the 200-DMA but
follow through has been limited courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($0.7233).
Bears tentatively focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. In saying that, bulls now look for
a close above $0.7819 to confirm breaks of 100 & 200-DMAs to ease bearish
pressure and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989. Bears now look for a
close below $0.7694 to add weight to their case.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Rejected Around 55-DMA
*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance
*RES 3: 90.845 - 55-DMA
*RES 2: 90.567 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance
*RES 1: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1
*PRICE: 90.157 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 90.080 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 now support
*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support
*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance
leaves a bearish key day reversal in place with bears continuing to look for a
close below 90.080 to shift initial focus to 89.442. A close below this level
then sees immediate focus back to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B studies and the
Bollinger top (90.851) remain concerns for bulls who now need a close above
91.011 to initially pressure 91.751.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.758 Targets 2.609-648
*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21
*RES 3: 2.925 - High Feb 27
*RES 2: 2.875 - High Mar 1
*RES 1: 2.824 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.810 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.786 - Low Feb 9
*SUP 2: 2.758 - Low Feb 7
*SUP 3: 2.648 - Low Feb 6, 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less
than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Focus has now returned to
2.758-786 following the close below the daily bull channel base (2.826) and
21-DMA (2.855). Bears now look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and
shift focus back to 2.609-648 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls now need a close
above 2.875 to gain breathing room.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26
*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27
*RES 2: $61.94 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $61.83 - Hourly resistance Mar 1
*PRICE: $60.96 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $60.18 - Low Mar 1
*SUP 2: $59.60 - Low Feb 15
*SUP 3: $59.11 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: $58.72 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Losses have defined the week so far with bulls now needing a close
above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $64.97 to return initial
focus to $66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted. While the 21-DMA caps bears
remain focused on layers of support $57.90-59.60 where the 100-DMA ($58.82) and
daily bull channel base ($59.11) are situated. Correcting O/B studies add weight
to the bearish case.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Aggressive Bounce Ahead Of 100-DMA
*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance
*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26
*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance
*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance
*PRICE: $1316.6 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support
*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*SUP 3: $1300.2 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $1287.2 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the Bollinger
base ($1306.0) is a concern for bears and could signal the end of the correction
from $1361.8 Feb highs. Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to gain breathing
room and above $1351.3 to shift focus back to $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs
are noted. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to
$1235.9 Dec lows.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.