MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2364-1.2446 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 2: $1.2364 Alternating support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.2336 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2320 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2246 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair stalled on approach to the weekly bear channel top

($1.2639) off 2008 highs. The closes below the 21-DMA see focus return to the

$1.2092-1.2153 support region. Resistance layers left in the wake add to bearish

confidence. Bulls need a close above $1.2364 to gain breathing room and above

$1.2446 to reconfirm focus on $1.2555-1.2639 where 2018 highs and the LT bear

channel top are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3940

*RES 4: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $1.3997 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 1: $1.3907 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3860 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3836 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3754 Hourly support Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $1.3710 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 21-DMA ($1.3907) and the $1.3940 resistance

remains a concern for bulls. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.3940 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to $1.4150. The $1.3710-54

support region is key this week. Bears continue to look for a close below

$1.3710 to shift initial focus to $1.3612-56. Layers of resistance remain but

$1.3940 is key.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.19 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y109.78 High Feb 8 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.19 High Mar 1

*PRICE: Y106.62 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation and a lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows is less

than ideal for bears who are currently focused on Y98.95-101.15. In saying that,

resistance layers remain with bulls needing a close above Y107.19 to ease

bearish pressure. Above Y108.03 is needed to hint at a correction to

Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm. Bears continue to look for a close

below Y105.22 to add weight to their case for a test of Y98.95-101.15.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Capping

*RES 4: Y133.41 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.18 High Feb 27

*RES 1: Y131.71 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.36 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.19 Hourly support Mar 9 

*SUP 2: Y130.49 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: Y129.53 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 200-DMA and the 21-DMA

capping resulted in a sell-off and sees immediate focus on Y129.33-53 where 2018

lows and the 200-WMA are noted. Bears look for a close below Y129.33 to

initially pressure the 55-WMA and reconfirm overall focus on Y125.80-127.54.

Bulls still need a close above Y132.18 to ease bearish pressure and shift

initial focus to Y133.05-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8890 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8870 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8846 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: A lack of follow through above the Bollinger band top (Gbp0.8953)

has left the pair looking a little heavy following the close below the 200-DMA

(Gbp0.8891) Friday. DMAs noted Gbp0.8846-70 remain the key concern for bulls

with a close below the 55-DMA needed to shift focus back to Gbp0.8685-0.8769

where monthly and 2018 lows are noted. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8904 to

gain breathing room and retain focus on Gbp0.9013-48.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Closes Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2

*RES 3: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $0.7885 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7865 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7839 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7770 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 4: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA largely supported last week with the close above the

21-DMA Friday ensuring focus remains on the $0.7885-0.7910 resistance to start

the new week. Bulls need a close above $0.7910 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

and above $0.7989 to shift overall focus to $0.8135-62 where 2015 & 2018 highs

are situated. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room

and below the 100-DMA to return pressure to $0.7694-0.7710.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 91.011 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.451 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1

*PRICE: 90.024 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.998 - Low Mar 9

*SUP 2: 89.859 - Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support

*SUP 3: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 4: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction on the break below 89.442 resulted in

rally that sees focus back on 90.420-91.011 where the 55-DMA is located. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 91.011 to shift initial focus to 91.751.

Initial support is now noted at 89.998 Friday's low but bears still need a close

below 89.407 to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to 88.253 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.957 To Target 3.041

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.939 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.903 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.868 - Low Mar 9 

*SUP 2: 2.842 - Low Mar 7 

*SUP 3: 2.810 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to

capitalise on the recent sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key

supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 2.609-704 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls still need a close

above 2.957 to reconfirm focus on 3.041.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) $59.18 Support Key This Week 

*RES 4: $68.21 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $66.02 - Monthly High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $64.07 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $63.05 - High Mar 6

*PRICE: $62.01 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $61.56 - Hourly support Mar 9 

*SUP 2: $61.31 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $60.85 - Hourly resistance Mar 9 now support 

*SUP 4: $60.42 - Hourly resistance Mar 9a now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking heavy last week the $59.18-91 support region where

the 100-DMA ($59.25) and bull channel base ($59.18) are located confirmed

significance with a rally that provides bulls breathing room and hints at a test

of $63.05-64.07 this week. Overall a close above $64.07 remains needed to return

focus to $66.02-68.21. Bears need a close below $59.18 to hint at a move back to

$53.30-55.40 with below $57.11 (Bull channel base) to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 21-DMA Now Capping, Bounces From Key Support

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1329.5 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1322.7 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1319.5 - Hourly support Mar 9 

*SUP 2: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1302.4 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the bounce from $1312.9 that sees pressure

back on the 21-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room whereas a close above $1351.3 remains needed to initially focus

on $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted. Bears need a close below $1312.9

to confirm a return in focus to $1288.7-1302.5 where 100 & 200-DMAs are

situated. Daily studies are well placed for gains.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]