MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2446 To Target $1.2555-1.2625

*RES 4: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 3: $1.2427 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $1.2412 High Mar 14

*RES 1: $1.2388 High Mar 22

*PRICE: $1.2374 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2285 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $1.2180 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the falling TL ($1.2361) off 2018 highs has

been lacking with bears taking comfort in the rejection ahead of $1.2412-46

where the Bollinger top is noted. Bulls need a close above $1.2446 to confirm

focus on $1.2555-2625 where the LT bear channel top off 2008 highs is found.

Bears continue to look for a close below $1.2240 to confirm focus on

$1.2092-1.2180 with the 100-DMA at $1.2095.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.4066 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4272 200-WMA 

*RES 2: $1.4216 High Mar 22 

*RES 1: $1.4171 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1.4165 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4130 Hourly support Mar 26 

*SUP 2: $1.4076 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: $1.4066 High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3984 Low Mar 20

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA ($1.3941) has provided the base for a rally to fresh

2mth highs with bulls now focused on the $1.4286-1.4349 region where 2018 highs

are located. Correcting modestly O/B daily studies are less than ideal for

bulls. In saying that, bears still need a close below $1.4066 to confirm an

easing of bullish pressure and below $1.3984 to shift focus back to $1.3850-72

where the rising TL off Nov 13 lows is noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Hesitating Ahead of LT Rising TL

*RES 4: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 3: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 2: Y106.09 Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 1: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23

*PRICE: Y104.88 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 2: Y104.26 LT Rising TL off 2016 low 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y106.75-107.29 took its toll resulting in fresh

2018 & 18mth lows and hinting at a move targeting 99.08-101.15 where 2016 lows

are noted. Bears now need a close below the LT rising TL off 2016 lows to

confirm. Bulls now look for a close above Y105.22 to gain breathing room. A

close above Y106.09 is needed to return initial focus to Y106.75-107.29. The

Bollinger base (Y104.96) is the key concern.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With Key WMAs

*RES 4: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 3: Y131.89 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y130.96 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: Y130.50 Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.80 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 2: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: Y126.33 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: Y125.80 Monthly Highs May 16 & 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rejection at the 200-DMA and bear channel top Tuesday has

resulted in 2018 & 8mth lows as the pair currently flirts with 55 (Y129.17) &

200 (Y129.43) WMAs. Bears look for a close below the 55-WMA to confirm focus on

Y125.80-127.54 where monthly supports and the bear channel base are noted. Daily

studies approaching O/S is less than ideal. Bulls now need a close above Y130.50

to ease bearish pressure and above the channel top to pressure the 200-DMA.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 100-WMA Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Gbp0.8842 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8830 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8807 Low Mar 16 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8758 High Mar 21

*PRICE: Gbp0.8735 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8707 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8654 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the 100-WMA was confirmed Thursday with an

aggressive bounce from fresh 2018 & 10mth lows. Daily studies correcting from

O/S increase the risk of a move back to Gbp0.8807-42 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8758 to confirm. The 100-WMA remains key

support. Bears look for a close below the 100-WMA to target Gbp0.8495-0.8535. A

close below the 100-WMA was last seen in Jan 2016.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Target $0.7500-80 While 200-DMA Caps

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7806 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7743 - High Mar 23

*PRICE: $0.7724 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7669 - 2018 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7658 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7627 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal with the

pair remaining capped around DMAs $0.7777-0.7806. Bulls look for a close above

the 200-DMA to pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the falling TL off 2018 highs and

55-DMA are located. Above $0.7916 shifts focus to $0.8135-62. While the 200-DMA

caps bears remain focused on $0.7500-80 and now look for a close below $0.7669

to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base remains the key concern.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Follow Through Remains Absent

*RES 4: 90.445 - High Mar 20 

*RES 3: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 2: 90.011 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: 89.737 - High Mar 23

*PRICE: 89.396 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.321 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The DXY continues to bounce back and forth between Bollinger bands

with follow through lacking on breaks of key support and resistance levels.

Bulls need a close above 90.445 to shift initial focus to 91.011 whereas bears

now need a close below 89.396 to shift overall focus back to 2018 lows (88.253).

Initial resistance is noted at 89.737 but bulls need a close above 90.011 to

ease bearish pressure and reconfirm sideways trading.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.758 Targets 2.585-648

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 2.852 - High Mar 23

*PRICE: 2.828 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 2.775 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.758 - Low Feb 7 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through has seen pressure return to

2.758-786 where the 55-DMA is noted. The Bollinger base (2.801) is the key

concern and currently limits follow through. Bears continue to look for a close

below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and initially target 2.585-648. Bulls now need

a close above 2.852 to gain breathing room and above 2.889 to shift focus back

to 2.936-957.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Below $63.99 To Shift Focus Lower 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 1: $66.55 - Hourly resistance Mar 26

*PRICE: $65.50 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $65.02 - Hourly support Mar 23 

*SUP 2: $63.99 - Hourly support Mar 21a 

*SUP 3: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue pressuring $66.66 where 2018 highs are noted. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $66.66 to target $69.54-73.25 last seen in

early 2014. The Bollinger band top ($65.81) is the key concern for bulls. The

$63.99 support remains key this week. Bears look for a close below this level to

shift initial focus back to $61.45-62.52 where 21 ($62.46) & 55 ($62.58) DMAs

are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1318.3-1335.6 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1366.1 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $1354.8 - Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high 

*RES 1: $1351.3 - High Feb 19

*PRICE: $1348.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1343.5 - Hourly support Mar 23 

*SUP 2: $1335.6 - Hourly support Mar 23a 

*SUP 3: $1324.6 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA provided the base

for an aggressive break of key DMAs with focus having returned to layers of

resistance $1351.3-1374.9. The Bollinger top ($1343.6) is the key concern for

bulls. Bears now need a close below $1335.6 to gain breathing room and below

$1318.3 to shift focus back to $1302.5-1307.6 where the 100-DMA is located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]