MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2604 Low Oct 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 1: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2417 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2328 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2285 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $1.2193 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on Monday's gains is a concern for bulls and

leaves with the close below $1.2417 easing bullish pressure. Bears now look for

a close below the 55-DMA to shift initial focus back to $1.2193-1.2240 where the

bull channel base is noted. Bulls need a close above $1.2433 to gain breathing

room and above $1.2477 to retain focus on $1.2555-1.2625 where the LT bear

channel top off 2008 highs is located.

     CABLE TECHS: Hesitating Ahead of 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1.4349 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 2: $1.4272 200-WMA 

*RES 1: $1.4219 Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.4185 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4118 Hourly resistance Mar 27 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.4066 High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3984 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $1.3965 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-WMA is a concern for bulls given daily

studies at modestly O/B levels. Bulls now look for a close above $1.4286 to

confirm a break of the 200-WMA and above $1.4349 to shift focus to tests of the

weekly bull channel top. Bears continue to look for a close below $1.4066 to

hint at a correction back to $1.3867-73 where the rising TL off Nov 13 lows is

noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 1: Y106.09 Hourly resistance Mar 21

*PRICE: Y105.49 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 2: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: Y104.26 LT Rising TL off 2016 low 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the LT rising TL off 2016 lows is struggling a

little having run into selling ahead of the Y106.09-107.29 resistance region.

Bulls need a close above Y106.09 to return focus to Y106.75-107.29. Daily

studies remain well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now need a close below

Y105.29 to gain breathing room and below the LT rising TL off 2016 lows to

confirm focus on Y99.08-101.15 where 2016 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-DMA Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Y132.90 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y131.96 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.42 Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.99 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.56 Low Mar 27 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.44 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.20 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite flirting with key WMAs bears failed to gain traction below

the 55 (Y129.20) & 200 (Y129.44) WMAs with the bounce to start the new week

seeing focus back on the Y131.96-133.18 region where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are

noted. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to shift focus to Y132.44-133.18.

Daily studies correcting from O/S are perfectly placed for a leg higher. Bears

now look for a close below Y129.97 to return pressure to Y128.94-129.44.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Target 2018 High While 100-DMA Supports

*RES 4: Gbp0.8841 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8827 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8807 Low Mar 16 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8777 Hourly resistance Mar 27

*PRICE: Gbp0.8752 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8707 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8654 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the 100-WMA was confirmed Thursday with an

aggressive bounce from fresh 2018 & 10mth lows. Daily studies correcting from

O/S provided the impetus for a bounce back to Gbp0.8807-40 where 21, 55 &

100-DMAs are situated. The 100-WMA remains key support. Bears look for a close

below the 100-WMA to target Gbp0.8495-0.8535. A close below the 100-WMA was last

seen in Jan 2016. While the 100-WMA supports bulls target 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7808 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7718 - Hourly resistance Mar 27

*PRICE: $0.7696 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7669 - 2018 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7642 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7627 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.7784-0.7808 where key DMAs are situated

continues to hamper recovery efforts with pressure having returned to 2018 lows.

Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the

falling TL off 2018 highs and 55-DMA are located. Above $0.7916 shifts focus to

$0.8135-62. While the 200-DMA caps bears remain focused on $0.7500-80 and now

look for a close below $0.7669 to add weight to their case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above 90.011

*RES 4: 90.445 - High Mar 20 

*RES 3: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 2: 90.011 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: 89.737 - High Mar 23

*PRICE: 89.275 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.124 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 now support

*SUP 2: 88.942 - Low Mar 27

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has again been lacking, this time on the break of

88.960 with bulls taking comfort in the bounce. The rally sees bulls gain

breathing room with a close above 90.011 still needed to shift initial focus

back to 90.445 March highs so far. While the 89.737-90.011 resistance region

caps bears remain focused on tests of 2018 lows and look for a close below

88.942 to add weight to their case.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: 2.815 - Low Mar 26 

*RES 1: 2.799 - Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.782 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.758 - Low Feb 7 

*SUP 2: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 2.609 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 4: 2.607 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains heavy as it flirts with the 55-DMA (2.786). Bears

now look for a close below 2.758 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and

initially target 2.585-648 where the 100-DMA is located. The Bollinger base

(2.780) is the key concern for bears. Layers of resistance are weighing with

bulls now needing a close above 2.815 to gain breathing room and above 2.859 to

shift focus higher.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bears Need Close Below $63.99 

*RES 4: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.55 - High Mar 26 

*RES 2: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 

*RES 1: $65.11 - Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $64.78 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $63.99 - Hourly support Mar 21a 

*SUP 2: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a 

*SUP 4: $62.49 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs are less than ideal for bulls

when combined with daily studies at O/B levels and looking to correct as well as

the Bollinger top ($66.20) limiting follow through. Bears look for a close below

$63.99 to shift initial focus back to $61.45-62.71 where 21 ($62.60) & 55

($62.71) DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above $66.66 to

target $69.54-73.25 last seen in early 2014.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1335.6

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1366.1 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 1: $1356.7 - High Mar 27

*PRICE: $1346.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1339.8 - Low Mar 27 

*SUP 2: $1335.6 - Hourly support Mar 23a 

*SUP 3: $1326.7 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA provided the base

for an aggressive break of key DMAs with focus having returned to layers of

resistance $1361.7-1374.9. The Bollinger top ($1349.8) is the key concern for

bulls. Bears now need a close below $1335.6 to gain breathing room and below

$1318.3 to shift focus back to $1302.5-1309.0 where the 100-DMA is located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]