MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

5 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Channel Base

*RES 4: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2344 High Apr 2

*RES 1: $1.2337 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2277 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 2: $1.2231 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on gains was a concern for bulls last week

and left the pair looking offered with immediate focus on $1.2231-1.2240 where

the bull channel base is noted. Bulls still need a close above $1.2371 to gain

breathing room and above $1.2477 to retain focus on $1.2555-1.2625 where the LT

bear channel top off 2008 highs is located. A close below the channel base

initially targets 1.2092-1.2153.

     CABLE TECHS: 200-WMA Capping, Supported Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.4257 200-WMA 

*RES 3: $1.4200 High Mar 28 

*RES 2: $1.4127 Hourly support Mar 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.4096 High Mar 29

*PRICE: $1.4073 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3995 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3984 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $1.3873 Low Mar 13 

*SUP 4: $1.3753 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-WMA resulted in a correction back

towards the 55-DMA. Bears need a close below $1.3984 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA & add weight to the case for a correction back to $1.3873 with below

targeting $1.3710-54. Bulls still need a close above $1.4127 to gain breathing

room and above $1.4200 to return focus to $1.4257-1.4349 where the 200-WMA &

2018 high are located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y107.33 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Y107.29 High Mar 13

*PRICE: Y106.98 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.69 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 2: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: Y104.28 LT Rising TL off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips sees the pair pressuring the Y107.29-33

where the 55-DMA is located. The 55-DMA remains key resistance with bulls

needing a close above to shift immediate focus to Y108.03-42 and to hint at a

move targeting Y109.50-110.71 where key WMAs and the 200-DMA are located. Layers

of support building add to bullish confidence with bears now needing a close

below Y106.29 to ease pressure on the 55-DMA.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y128.94 Targets Y125.80-127.54

*RES 4: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 3: Y132.42 55-DMA

*RES 2: Y132.11 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.07 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y131.36 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.39 200-WMA, 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The pair currently remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and

capped ahead of the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA (Y133.06) key topside. Bulls need a

close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018

highs with a close above Y134.16 to confirm. Pressure returned to Y129.97 to

start the new week with bears needing a close below to return focus to

Y128.94-129.39 where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 100-WMA Support Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8815 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8807 Low Mar 16 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8797 High Mar 27 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8764 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8724 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8707 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8663 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows and bounce from ahead of the 100-WMA

has remained capped ahead of key DMAs with pressure having returned to key

support layers. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to target Gbp0.8495-0.8535.

A close below the 100-WMA was last seen in Jan 2016. While the 100-WMA supports

bulls target 2018 highs but now need a close above the 100-DMA to add support to

their case and shift initial focus to Gbp0.8874-0.8904.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Key DMAs $0.7739-0.7840

*RES 4: $0.7814 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 3: $0.7810 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7739 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7696 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7662 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 2: $0.7630 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7596 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Recent hesitation ahead of 2018 lows has seen the pair correct

higher with immediate focus now on DMAs $0.7739-0.7840. Bulls continue to look

for a close above the 55-DMA ($0.7840) to shift initial focus to $0.7916 and

overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Momentum has corrected to more neutral levels

but the Slow Stochastic remains very O/S with bears now needing a close below

the 100-WMA to reconfirm focus on $0.7500-80.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 89.714

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.166 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.445 - High Mar 20

*PRICE: 90.122 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.784 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28

*SUP 3: 89.534 - Hourly resistance Mar 28a now support

*SUP 4: 89.251 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of 88.960 has seen the

pendulum swing back the other way and focus having returned to 90.445. Bulls

need a close above 90.445 to confirm a shift in focus to 91.011-751 where the

100-DMA is located. Layers of support are again following the index higher with

bears needing a close below 89.714 to ease renewed bullish pressure and return

initial focus to 88.955.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.815 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 3: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: 2.830 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 2.815 - Low Mar 26

*PRICE: 2.812 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.772 - Hourly resistance Apr 4 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: 2.717 - Low Apr 2 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: Having gained traction below the 55-DMA the bounce Tuesday was less

than ideal as daily studies approach O/S levels and sees the yield flirting with

the 55-DMA (2.807). Bulls look for a close above 2.815 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA and gain breathing room with above 2.859 to shift focus higher. Bears now

need a close below 2.772 to gain breathing room and retain focus on 2.585-648

where the 100-DMA is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Focus Back On $63.86 Today 

*RES 4: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 

*RES 3: $65.42 - High Apr 2 

*RES 2: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $63.86 - High Apr 3

*PRICE: $63.68 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $62.69 - Hourly resistance Apr 4 now support 

*SUP 2: $62.06 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: $60.84 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $59.91 - Low Mar 8

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 21 ($63.07) & 55 ($62.75) DMAs resulted in a dip below

Wednesday only to be aggressively reversed and pressure back on $63.86. Bulls

need a close above $63.86 to gain breathing room and above $65.42 to target 2018

highs. Bears now look for a close below $62.69 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs

and shift focus to $59.91-60.84 where the 100-DMA is noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1318.4-1328.3 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 

*RES 1: $1341.3 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $1330.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1328.3 - High Mar 29 now support 

*SUP 2: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1311.4 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Follow through remains lacking on approach to the $1350 level with

gold looking a little offered and pressuring $1328.3. Bears need a close below

$1328.3 to ease bullish pressure and below $1318.3 to pressure 100 & 200-DMAs

$1294.7-1311.4. While $1328.3 supports bulls remain focused on the

$1361.7-1374.9 region where 2018 highs are located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]