MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

6 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2371 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2344 High Apr 2

*RES 2: $1.2337 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2290 Hourly resistance Apr 4

*PRICE: $1.2240 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2216 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 2: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2017 High Jan 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears gain confidence with a dip below the bull channel base off

Nov lows although follow through has been lacking courtesy of the Bollinger base

($1.2215). Bears now focus on $1.2092-1.2153 where the 100-DMA ($1.2150) is

noted. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a

close above $1.2371 to gain breathing room and above $1.2477 to retain focus on

$1.2555-1.2625 where the LT bear channel top off 2008 highs is located.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.4127

*RES 4: $1.4200 High Mar 28 

*RES 3: $1.4127 Hourly support Mar 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4096 High Mar 29 

*RES 1: $1.4032 Hourly support Apr 5 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3999 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3963 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 2: $1.3925 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $1.3873 Low Mar 13 

*SUP 4: $1.3760 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-WMA resulted in a correction back

towards the 55-DMA. Bears now need a close below $1.3963 to confirm a break of

the 55-DMA & add weight to the case for a correction back to $1.3873 with below

targeting $1.3710-54. Bulls still need a close above $1.4127 to gain breathing

room and return focus to $1.4257-1.4349 where the 200-WMA & 2018 high are

located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.69-84 Support Region Key Today

*RES 4: Y109.51 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.49 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y107.23 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.84 High Apr 4 now support 

*SUP 2: Y106.69 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 3: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips has resulted in a close above the 55-DMA

(Y107.27) the first since early Jan. Bulls now shift immediate focus to

Y108.03-42 and overall focus to Y109.29-110.63 where key DMA and WMAs are

situated. Daily studies approaching O/B is the key concern for bulls. Bears now

look for a close below Y106.84 to gain breathing room and below Y106.69 to shift

initial focus back to Y105.29.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y128.94 Targets Y125.80-127.54

*RES 4: Y133.06 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y132.36 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.12 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.25 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.39 200-WMA, 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The pair currently remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and

capped ahead of the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA key topside. Bulls need a close

above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018 highs

with a close above Y134.16 to confirm. Pressure returned to Y129.97 to start the

new week with bears needing a close below to return focus to Y128.94-129.39

where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 100-WMA Support Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8814 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8807 Low Mar 16 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8797 High Mar 27 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8764 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8743 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8707 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8663 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows and bounce from ahead of the 100-WMA

has remained capped ahead of key DMAs with a dip back key support layers. Bears

need a close below the 100-WMA to target Gbp0.8495-0.8535. A close below the

100-WMA was last seen in Jan 2016. While the 100-WMA supports bulls target 2018

highs but now need a close above the 100-DMA to add support to their case and

shift initial focus to Gbp0.8874-0.8904.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7810 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7807 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7733 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7682 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7655 - Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 2: $0.7630 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7589 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of key DMAs $0.7733-0.7834 remain a concern for

bulls. Overall bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes and

shift initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Momentum

has corrected to more neutral levels but the Slow Stochastic remains very O/S

with bears now needing a close below the 100-WMA to reconfirm focus on

$0.7500-80. Below $0.7500 initially targets $0.7319.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Shifts To 91.011-751

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.134 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.636 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 90.421 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 90.260 - Hourly support Apr 5

*SUP 2: 89.939 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 89.785 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the break of 88.960 has seen the 90.445

resistance taken out and bullish focus shifted to 91.011-751 where the 100-DMA

is noted. Bulls now look for a close above 91.751 to target 92.399-997 where the

200-DMA (92.399) is found. Bears now look for a close below 90.260 to gain

breathing room and below 89.633 to return focus to tests of 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: O/S Studies Correcting

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 2.859 - High Mar 27

*PRICE: 2.819 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.790 - High Apr 3 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.772 - Hourly resistance Apr 4 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the week's low saw a close above 21 (2.827) & 55

(2.811) DMAs with bulls now needing a close above 2.859 to reconfirm focus on

2018 highs. Correcting O/S studies are well placed for a fresh leg higher as

they correct from O/S. Bears now need a close below 2.790 to ease pressure on

resistance layers and reconfirm initial focus on retests of 2.717 and overall

focus on 2.585-648 with the 100-DMA at 2.634.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) $62.69 & 64.12 Levels Key Today 

*RES 4: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 

*RES 3: $65.42 - High Apr 2 

*RES 2: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $64.12 - High Apr 4

*PRICE: $63.22 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $62.69 - Hourly resistance Apr 4 now support 

*SUP 2: $62.06 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: $60.90 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $59.91 - Low Mar 8

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 21 ($63.17) & 55 ($62.74) DMAs resulted in a dip below

Wednesday only to be aggressively reversed. The break of $63.86 has so far

lacked follow through as bulls continue to look for a close above $65.42 to

target 2018 highs. Bears now look for a close below $62.69 to confirm breaks of

21 & 55-DMAs and shift focus to $59.91-60.84 where the 100-DMA and a bull

channel base are noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below 200-DMA To End Bullish Hopes

*RES 4: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 3: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 

*RES 2: $1341.3 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1334.9 - High Apr 5

*PRICE: $1329.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 2: $1311.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1295.1 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Follow through remains lacking on approach to the $1350 level with

gold correcting back towards $1318.3 following the break of $1328.3. Bears now

look for a close below the 100-DMA to confirm focus on the 200-DMA. Below the

200-DMA is needed to target $1234.1 where the 200-WMA is located. Bulls now need

a close above $1356.7 to confirm initial focus on $1366.7-1374.9.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]