MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2290 & $1.2253 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 3: $1.2425 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: $1.2395 High Apr 11

*RES 1: $1.2353 Hourly support Apr 12 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2332 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2290 High Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 3: $1.2209 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.2181 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the daily bear channel top sees the pair

flirting with the 55-DMA ($1.2335) and pressuring initial support. Bears

continue to look for a close below $1.2290 to return initial focus to

$1.2153-1.2209 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls need a close above $1.2353 to

gain breathing room and above $1.2477 to confirm focus on $1.2555-1.2606 where

the LT bear channel top off 2018 highs is located.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.4349 Targets $1.5018

*RES 4: $1.4664 Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1.4349 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 1: $1.4272 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1.4257 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4218 Low Apr 13 

*SUP 2: $1.4182 Hourly support Apr 12 

*SUP 3: $1.4145 Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 4: $1.4111 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 200-WMA ($1.4230) with bulls

needing a close above $1.4349 to confirm traction and shift initial focus to the

weekly bull channel top and overall focus to $1.5018 2016 highs. The Bollinger

top ($1.4273) is the key concern for bulls. Initial support is noted at Friday's

low with bears now needing a close below to gain breathing room and target a

correction back to $1.4104-11 where the 21-DMA is noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y108.42 To Target Y109.26-110.47

*RES 4: Y109.46 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.77 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y107.23 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y107.00 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y106.57 Low Apr 9 

*SUP 3: Y106.43 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging at Y106.57 last week but

still need a close above the Y108.03-42 region to target Y109.29-110.54 where

key DMA and WMAs are situated. Follow through was lacking Friday courtesy of the

Bollinger band top (Y107.93) and this remains the key concern for bulls. Bears

now need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to

shift initial focus back to Y105.29 and hint at a move back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 100-DMA To Focus On 2018 High

*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.06 100-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.83 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y132.25 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 3: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y129.86 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y131.99 lacked follow through with bears now needing a

close below Y131.78 to ease bullish pressure and below Y130.82 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (Y131.14) and shift initial focus to Y128.94-129.97. Bulls

continue to look for a close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift

overall focus back to 2018 highs. The Bollinger top (Y132.83) and O/B studies

are now recognized as key concerns for bulls.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8690

*RES 4: Gbp0.8749 Hourly resistance Apr 6 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8729 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8690 Low Apr 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8679 100-WMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8650 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8625 2018 Low Apr 13 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8515 High May 15 2017 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8380 Monthly Low May 10 2017

*COMMENTARY: The marginal weekly close below the 100-WMA adds weight to the

bearish case for a move now initially targeting Gbp0.8380-0.8515 with below

Gbp0.8380 to confirm focus on Gbp0.8313 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above

Gbp0.8690 to gain breathing room and above Gbp0.8749 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and to return focus to Gbp0.8797-0.8819 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7842

*RES 4: $0.7916 - High Mar 14

*RES 3: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 2: $0.7814 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7801 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7771 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7710 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 4: $0.7641 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The $0.7842 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a

close above to confirm breaks of 55 & 200-DMAs and the falling daily TL

($0.7768). $0.7735 provided the base for Friday's rally with bears needing a

close below to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to return initial focus

to 2018 lows and the 100-WMA. Overall bears need a close below the weekly bull

channel base ($0.7594) off 2016 lows to initially target $0.7500.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 89.970

*RES 4: 90.905 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9 

*RES 1: 89.970 - High Apr 10

*PRICE: 89.757 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.660 - Hourly support Apr 12

*SUP 2: 89.373 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low

*SUP 3: 89.189 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the daily bull

channel base off 2018 lows following the most recent topside failure. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 89.970 to gain breathing room and above

90.597 to shift immediate focus to 90.905-91.011 where the 100-DMA is found. The

88.942 support remains key with bears needing a close below to confirm traction

below the channel base and to initially target 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.859 To Target 2018 High

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 2.859 - High Mar 27

*PRICE: 2.838 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.812 - Hourly support Apr 12 

*SUP 2: 2.799 - Hourly resistance Apr 12 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 4: 2.730 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally and bullish close Thursday saw bulls gain

breathing room and pressure return to 2.859. The 2.859 resistance remains key

this week. Bulls need a close above to shift initial focus to tests of 2018

highs. Support layers building add to bullish confidence. Bears look for a close

below 2.799 to gain breathing room and return initial focus to 2.717-748 where

the Bollinger band base is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Potential Bearish Key Day Reversal 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $69.18 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $67.68 - 2018 High Apr 16

*PRICE: $66.75 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $66.58 - Hourly support Apr 16 

*SUP 2: $65.94 - Low Apr 12 

*SUP 3: $65.68 - Hourly support Apr 11 

*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs in Asian trading have lacked follow through

with the contract offered and pressuring $66.58 having dipped below Friday's

low. Bears now look for a close below $66.58 to gain breathing room and below

$65.68 to shift initial focus back to $64.10-49 where the 21-DMA ($64.49) is

located. The Bollinger band top ($67.69) remains a concern for bulls and

currently limits follow through.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1326.9 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1366.0 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: $1353.2 - High Apr 12

*PRICE: $1348.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1330.9 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9 

*SUP 3: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1314.8 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1326.9-1330.9 support is key this week. Bears need a close

below $1326.9 to confirm initial focus on $1315.4-1318.3 where the 100-DMA is

noted. Below the 100-DMA remains needed to initially target $1298.5-1302.5 where

the 200-DMA and 2018 lows are found. Bulls now need a close above $1353.2 to

return focus to $1366.0-1391.8 where 2018, 2016 & 2014 highs are located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]