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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

30 April 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2144
*RES 4: $1.2312 Hourly support Apr 20 now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2248 Low Apr 20 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2222 100-DMA
*RES 1: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.2124 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 
*SUP 2: $1.2024 Daily Bear channel base 
*SUP 3: $1.2011 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the $1.2092 weekly
support resulted in a bounce back towards initial resistance Friday. O/S daily
studies are seen as a key concern for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close
above $1.2144 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA ($1.2313) to shift
focus back to $1.2392-1.2476 where the bear channel top is noted. While $1.2144
caps bears look for a close below the 200-DMA initially target $1.1914.
     CABLE TECHS: Pressuring Weekly Bull Channel Base
*RES 4: $1.3997 High Apr 26 
*RES 3: $1.3939 High Apr 27 
*RES 2: $1.3893 Low Apr 26 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.3810 Hourly resistance Apr 27
*PRICE: $1.3779 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3745 Low Apr 27 
*SUP 2: $1.3739 Weekly Bull channel base off Mar Low 
*SUP 3: $1.3710 Monthly Low Mar 1 
*SUP 4: $1.3656 Monthly High Sept 20 now support
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs sees pressure now on the
$1.3656-1.3745 support region where the weekly bull channel base off Mar lows is
located. O/S daily studies increase the risk of a bounce from this region with
bulls now needing for a close above $1.3893 to ease bearish pressure and above
$1.4031 to hint at a move back to 2018 highs with above $1.4171 to confirm.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y108.54
*RES 4: Y110.32 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: Y110.24 200-DMA 
*RES 2: Y109.79 High Feb 8 
*RES 1: Y109.48 100-WMA
*PRICE: Y109.12 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.97 Hourly support Apr 25 
*SUP 2: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 
*SUP 3: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support 
*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around WMAs & DMAs Y109.48-110.47 is a concern for bulls
with the lack of follow through beginning to weigh. Bears now look for a close
below Y108.54 to shift focus back to Y106.57-107.85 where the 21 (Y107.60) & 55
(Y106.85) DMAs are situated. The Bollinger top (Y109.58) remains a key concern
for bulls. In saying that, bulls need a close above the 100-WMA to gain
breathing room this week.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: Y134.16 High Feb 9
*RES 3: Y133.53 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: Y133.48 High Apr 24
*RES 1: Y132.52 Hourly resistance Apr 27
*PRICE: Y132.28 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.87 Low Apr 27 
*SUP 2: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 
*SUP 3: Y131.57 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y131.05 Low Apr 5
*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 100-DMA (Y133.00) & 21-WMA (Y132.87)
remains lacking with focus back on Y131.57-87 as daily studies correct from O/B.
Bears need a close below Y131.05 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and to
shift focus to Y128.94-130.44 where 55 (Y130.44) & 200 (Y129.27) WMAs are noted.
Bulls continue to look for a close above Y134.16 to confirm focus on 2018 highs
although the Bollinger top (Y133.53) may limit follow through.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-WMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8880 200-DMA 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8830 55-WMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8816 21-WMA 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8810 100-DMA
*PRICE: Gbp0.8799 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8790 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8752 Hourly support Apr 27 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8723 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off was negated by an aggressive rally and bullish close
that returned pressure to Gbp0.8810-30 where key DMA and WMAs are situated.
Bulls now need a close above the 55-WMA to shift initial focus to the 200-DMA
and overall focus to Gbp0.8967-81. The Bollinger top (Gbp0.8812) is seen as a
concern. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and
below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8664-78.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7648
*RES 4: $0.7702 - Hourly resistance Apr 20
*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23
*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24
*RES 1: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25
*PRICE: $0.7562 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7530 - 2018 Low Apr 27 
*SUP 2: $0.7498 - Monthly Low Dec 8 2017 
*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 
*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017
*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on $0.7498 Dec lows. O/S daily studies and
the Bolli base ($0.7533) are concerns. Bears look for a close below $0.7498 to
confirm traction below the LT bull channel base and initially target $0.7326 May
2017 lows. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to the bearish case with
bulls needing a close above $0.7648 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7735
to shift focus back to $0.7805-42 where the 200-DMA is noted.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-DMA Capping
*RES 4: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9 
*RES 3: 91.987 - 200-DMA 
*RES 2: 91.954 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 1: 91.933 - Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 high
*PRICE: 91.562 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26
*SUP 2: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*SUP 3: 90.935 - Hourly support Apr 25
*SUP 4: 90.639 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The index is now hesitating ahead of the 200-DMA. Bulls still need
a close above the 200-DMA to target 92.625-997 where 2018 highs are situated.
Layers of support added to bullish confidence but very O/B daily studies are now
a concern. In saying that, bears now need a close below 91.320 to gain breathing
room and below 90.935 to shift focus initial focus back to 90.483-639 where the
100-DMA is noted.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 2014 High
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 
*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 
*RES 1: 2.988 - High Apr 27
*PRICE: 2.959 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.955 - Low Apr 27 
*SUP 2: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 
*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 
*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily
studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the Bollinger top (3.039). The
close below 3.007 initially targets a correction to 2.925. Below 2.925 is needed
to shift initial focus back to 2.814-876 where 21 (2.867) & 55 (2.862) DMAs are
situated. Bulls look for a close above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223 where the
weekly bull channel top is noted.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) $67.11 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $71.11 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: $70.57 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19 
*RES 1: $68.78 - High Apr 26
*PRICE: $67.92 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $67.11 - Low Apr 25 
*SUP 2: $66.54 - Low Apr 18 
*SUP 3: $66.28 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11
*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of 2018 highs Tuesday is a concern for bulls
when combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the
Bollinger top. Bears look for a close below $67.11 to gain breathing room and
hint at a correction back to $65.09-66.28 where the 21-DMA is found. Bulls need
a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on $71.11-73.25 where the MT bull
channel top is noted.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1302.5 Support Key This Week
*RES 4: $1339.3 - Hourly resistance Apr 20 
*RES 3: $1335.0 - 21-DMA 
*RES 2: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 
*RES 1: $1326.6 - High Apr 16
*PRICE: $1321.9 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1315.0 - Low Apr 26 
*SUP 2: $1306.9 - Low Mar 20 
*SUP 3: $1303.7 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Monthly Low Mar 1
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the close below the 100-DMA Thursday
with focus on $1302.5-1306.9 where the 200-DMA & 2018 lows are noted. Bears need
a close below $1302.5 to hint at a move back to the 200-WMA ($1234.6) and Dec
low ($1235.9) with below the 55-WMA to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1326.7
to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to
$1355.1-1366.1.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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