MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

4 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2053 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1.2230 100-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2032 High May 2

*PRICE: $1.1995 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1807 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: Despite the close below the 200-DMA Tuesday ($1.2016) adding weight

to the bearish case with immediate focus on $1.1914 2018 lows, hesitation ahead

of this level combined with correcting O/S studies is a concern for bears. In

saying that, bulls still need a close above $1.2053 to gain breathing room and

above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to key DMAs $1.2230-87.

     CABLE TECHS: 200-DMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: $1.3877 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.3792 High Apr 30 

*RES 2: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3666 High May 2

*PRICE: $1.3582 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3539 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1.3370 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs has resulted in traction below

the weekly bull channel base ($1.3686) off Mar lows with immediate focus now on

the 200-DMA and 2018 lows. Bears now look for a close below $1.3456 to target

$1.2995-1.3032. O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a

close above $1.3711 to gain breathing room and above $1.3792 to shift initial

focus to $1.3878-1.4026.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.54 & Y109.54 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: Y110.89 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: Y110.47 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.54 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: Y108.95 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.92 Low May 3 

*SUP 2: Y108.71 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA combined with daily studies

correcting from O/B is a concern for bulls and currently weighs. Bears now look

for a close below Y108.54 to shift initial focus back to Y107.85 whereas below

Y106.57 is needed to see bears targeting 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above

Y109.54 to gain breathing room and above the 55-WMA to initially target

Y111.48-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Targeting Y128.94-130.43

*RES 4: Y133.40 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 2: Y132.11 21-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.68 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.42 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.27 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA added weight to the bearish case with a

close below Y131.05 confirming traction below the 55-DMA and shifting focus to

Y128.94-130.42 where 55 & 200-WMAs are noted. Daily studies approaching O/S are

the key concern for bears. Y131.19 is now initial resistance with bulls needing

a close above to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to Y132.11-54

where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8877 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8841 Low Mar 14 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8828 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8785 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8752 Hourly support Apr 27 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8738 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Support now emerging on dips is a concern for bears with focus

currently on the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8830). Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8841 to

confirm a break and hint at a move back to 2018 highs with above the 200-DMA to

confirm. Daily studies lingering at O/B levels is a concern for bulls. In saying

that, bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below

the 21-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8664-78.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Target $0.7722-0.7842

*RES 4: $0.7702 - Hourly resistance Apr 20

*RES 3: $0.7649 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*PRICE: $0.7555 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7524 - Hourly support May 3 

*SUP 2: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 lows with correcting

O/S studies providing the impetus for a correction. Bulls look for a close above

$0.7546 today to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA ($0.7649) to shift

initial focus to $0.7722-0.7842 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are found. While the

21-DMA caps bears retain focus on $0.7326 June 2017 monthly lows. Bears look for

a close below $0.7524 to add to confidence.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 93.280 - 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.834 - 2018 High May 2

*PRICE: 92.370 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.959 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*SUP 4: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with an aggressive rally that

sees immediate focus on 93.035-280 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B studies

correcting and daily momentum divergence remain the key concern for bulls. In

saying that, bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room

and below 91.426 to shift focus back to 90.226-716 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are

located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.041-073 Resistance Region Remains Key

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2

*PRICE: 2.948 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 

*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.899 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily

studies correcting from O/B). Immediate focus remains on 2.925. Below 2.925 is

needed to shift initial focus back to 2.868-904 where 21 & 55 (2.868) DMAs are

situated. The 3.041-3.073 resistance region remains key with bulls needing a

close above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223 where the weekly bull channel top is

noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) $66.85 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $70.57 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19 

*RES 2: $69.34 - High Apr 30 

*RES 1: $68.90 - High May 1

*PRICE: $68.39 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $67.69 - Hourly resistance May 3 now support 

*SUP 2: $67.20 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $66.85 - Low May 1 

*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11

*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs remain a concern for bulls.

Bears now look for a close below $66.85 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and add

weight to the case for a correction back to $64.10-26 where the 55-DMA ($64.26)

is noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on

$71.46-73.25 where the MT bull channel top is situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Hesitating Around 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 3: $1329.8 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1326.6 - High Apr 16 

*RES 1: $1323.2 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $1313.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $1291.7 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1277.3 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 5 month lows saw gold flirting with the 200-DMA

($1304.8) and focus now on $1289.5-1301.5 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bears look

for a close below $1289.5 to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA

($1234.6) and Dec low ($1235.9). The $1332.6 resistance is now key. Bulls need a

close above this level to shift focus back to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs

are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]