MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

7 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2053 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2231 100-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2032 High May 2

*PRICE: $1.1963 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1909 2018 Low May 4 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1807 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: Closes below the 200-DMA resulted in fresh 2018 lows Friday

although follow through is lacking, daily studies remain O/S and momentum

divergence exists. In saying that, bulls still need a close above $1.2053 to

gain breathing room and above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to key DMAs

$1.2231-71. While $1.2053 caps bears now focus on $1.1690-1.1712 where Dec lows

are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $1.3456

*RES 4: $1.3792 High Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3666 High May 2 

*RES 1: $1.3586 High May 4

*PRICE: $1.3549 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3485 Low May 4 

*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1.3383 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Bears managed a dip below the 200-DMA ($1.3540) on the way to fresh

4mth lows Friday but follow through remains lacking with O/S daily studies

correcting and Momentum divergence seen as key concerns for bears. In saying

that, bulls now need a close above $1.3586 to gain breathing room and above

$1.3792 to shift initial focus to $1.3878-1.4026 where 21 ($1.3953), 55

($1.3967) & 100 ($1.3882) DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.54 & Y109.54 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: Y111.03 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: Y110.47 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.54 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: Y109.06 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.81 Daily Bull channel base off 2018 lows 

*SUP 2: Y108.68 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA combined with daily studies

correcting from O/B is a concern for bulls and currently weighs. Bears continue

to look for a close below Y108.54 to break the channel base and shift initial

focus back to Y107.85 whereas below Y106.57 is needed to see bears targeting

2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above Y109.54 to gain breathing room and above

the 55-WMA to initially target Y111.48-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus On 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y132.06 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.66 Hourly support May 4 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.48 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.88 Low May 4 

*SUP 2: Y129.22 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined for the pair last week with immediate bearish focus

now on 2018 lows. Bears look for a close below 2018 lows this week to initially

target the bear channel base around Y126.16. O/S daily studies are the key

concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above Y131.19 to gain breathing room

and hint at a correction back to Y132.06-54 where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8877 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8844 High May 4

*PRICE: Gbp0.8826 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8810 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8785 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8752 Hourly support Apr 27 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8743 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips is a concern for bears with focus

currently on the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8839). Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8844 to

confirm a break and hint at a move back to 2018 highs with above the 200-DMA to

confirm. Daily studies lingering at O/B levels is a concern for bulls. In saying

that, bears now need a close below the 100-DMA to ease bullish pressure and

below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8664-78.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Target $0.7715-0.7842

*RES 4: $0.7642 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7560 - High May 4

*PRICE: $0.7526 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 lows with

correcting O/S studies providing the impetus for a correction last week. Bulls

look for a close above the 21-DMA ($0.7642) this week to shift initial focus to

$0.7715-0.7842 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are found. While the 21-DMA caps bears

retain focus on $0.7326 June 2017 monthly lows. Bears look for a close below

$0.7524 to add to confidence.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 93.147 - 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.900 - 2018 High May 4

*PRICE: 92.535 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.956 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*SUP 4: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with an aggressive rally that

sees immediate focus on 93.035-219 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B studies

correcting and daily momentum divergence remain the key concern for bulls. In

saying that, bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room

and below 91.426 to shift focus back to 90.291-843 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are

located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2

*PRICE: 2.953 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.907 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.869 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily

studies correcting from O/B). The 3.041-3.073 resistance region remains key with

bulls needing a close above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223 where the weekly bull

channel top is noted. The 55-DMA is key support this week with bears needing a

close below to add weight to the case for a move back to 2.717-748 where the

100-DMA (2.748) is situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bulls Focused On Channel Top

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $71.54 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $70.66 - Weekly Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $70.59 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $70.40 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $69.55 - High Apr 19 now support 

*SUP 2: $68.12 - Low May 4 

*SUP 3: $67.64 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $66.85 - Low May 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

21-DMA last week which provided the base for a rally to fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs

that continues today. Bulls reconfirmed dominance with focus currently on the

daily bull channel top around $71.54 today. Bears now need a close below $69.55

to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back towards $66.85-67.64 where

the 21-DMA is located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1332.6 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 3: $1329.2 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1326.6 - High Apr 16 

*RES 1: $1323.9 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $1317.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $1292.3 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1277.8 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 5 month lows saw gold flirting with the 200-DMA

($1305.0) and bears now needing a close below 2018 lows to confirm traction

below and add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5) and Dec low

($1235.9). The $1332.6 resistance is now key this week. Bulls need a close above

this level to shift focus back to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]