MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressuring 55-WMA

*RES 4: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 2: $1.1941 Hourly resistance May 7

*RES 1: $1.1897 Hourly resistance May 8

*PRICE: $1.1853 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1827 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5mth lows continue with immediate pressure on

$1.1815-27 where the 55-WMA is located. Bears look for a close below $1.1815 to

initially pressure $1.1690-1.1716. O/S daily studies remain the key concern for

bears but at present bears dominate as layers of resistance build. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $1.2053 to confirm an easing of bearish

pressure and to shift initial focus back to $1.2144-1.2294.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3591 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $1.3792 High Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3666 High May 2 

*RES 1: $1.3591 High May 8

*PRICE: $1.3542 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3482 Low May 8 

*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1.3382 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the 200-DMA ($1.3543) continue as do fresh 4mth lows but

follow through remains lacking with O/S daily studies correcting and momentum

divergence seen as key concerns for bears. Bulls now need a close above $1.3591

to gain breathing room and above $1.3711 to shift initial focus to

$1.3878-1.4026 where 21 ($1.3895), 55 ($1.3952) & 100 ($1.3885) DMAs are noted.

Bears need a close below $1.3456 to target $1.3300.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.48 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.18 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y110.02 High May 2

*PRICE: Y109.47 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.81 Low May 8 

*SUP 2: Y108.60 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23

*SUP 4: Y108.47 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips to the 100-DMA with

gains seeing focus on Y110.02-48 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are. Bulls need a

close above the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98. Bears look for a

close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift

initial focus back to Y107.85 whereas below Y106.57 is needed to see bears

targeting 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressuring 200-WMA

*RES 4: Y131.83 21-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*RES 2: Y130.66 Hourly support May 4 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.12 High May 8

*PRICE: Y129.77 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.22 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 3: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18 

*SUP 4: Y126.02 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined for the pair last week with immediate bearish focus

now on 2018 lows. Bears look for a close below 2018 lows this week to initially

target the bear channel base around Y126.02. O/S daily studies are the key

concern for bears as pressure currently weighs on the 200-WMA. Bulls now need a

close above Y130.66 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to

Y131.82-54 where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 21-DMA Remains Key Support

*RES 4: Gbp0.8874 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8844 High May 4 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8808 100-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8798 Hourly resistance May 7

*PRICE: Gbp0.8757 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8746 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8641 Hourly support Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8837) appears to be impacting

with a sell-off Monday that sees focus back on the 21-DMA. Bears need a close

below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8664-78. Correcting O/B studies

remain the key concern for bulls. In saying that, bulls now need a close above

the 100-DMA to gain breathing room. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8844 to

confirm a break of the 55-WMA and hint at a move back to 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On $0.7326

*RES 4: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 3: $0.7560 - High May 4

*RES 2: $0.7490 - Hourly support May 8 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7470 - Low May 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7437 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7383 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5mth lows add weight to the bearish case with

immediate focus on $0.7326. Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern

for bears as the pair gains traction following the break of the weekly bull

channel base ($0.7613). Layers of resistance build and add weight to the bearish

case. Bulls need a close above $0.7490 to gain breathing room and above $0.7640

to shift initial focus to $0.7701-0.7842 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA

*RES 4: 94.659 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 93.508 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 93.280 - 2018 High May 8

*PRICE: 93.195 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.952 - Hourly support May 7

*SUP 2: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 3: 91.959 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: After a few days consolidation bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 &

5mth highs with the index now flirting with the 55-WMA (93.160). Bulls look for

a close above current 2018 highs to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA. O/B

studies remain the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 92.952 to

gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to the 200-DMA.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Back On 3.041-073

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 1: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.997 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: 2.925 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards the 21-DMA Friday saw a pop

back above 2.996 and focus having returned to the 3.041-073 resistance region.

Daily studies are now well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 3.073 to confirm traction above 3.000 and the 2018 high and

target 3.219-223 where the weekly bull channel top is noted. Bears now need a

close below 2.937 to ease bullish pressure.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bulls Focused On Channel Top

*RES 4: $74.16 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $71.71 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $70.84 - 2018 High May 7

*PRICE: $70.63 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 

*SUP 3: $68.34 - Hourly support May 8 

*SUP 4: $67.63 - Low May 8

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off was short lived and aggressively reversed

maintaining pressure on recent 2018 & 3+yr highs. Follow through has been

lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band top which is a concern with bulls

currently focused on the daily bull channel top. Bears now need a close below

$69.12 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back towards

$66.85-67.63. A close below $66.85 is needed to shift focus to $64.10-65.59.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1332.6 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 3: $1326.6 - High Apr 16, 21 & 55-DMAs 

*RES 2: $1324.9 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: $1318.9 - High May 7

*PRICE: $1310.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.5 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 3: $1292.2 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 5mth lows saw gold flirting with the 200-DMA

($1305.5) and bears needing a close below 2018 lows to confirm traction below

and add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5) and Dec low

($1235.9). The $1332.6 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close

above $1318.9 to gain breathing room and above $1332.6 to shift focus back to

$1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]