MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1889

*RES 4: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 3: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1838 High May 17

*PRICE: $1.1801 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1761 2018 Low May 16 

*SUP 2: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1.1696 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the $1.2019-53 resistance region where the

200-DMA is noted was confirmed Monday with the pair remaining capped ahead. The

sell-off that followed resulted in fresh 2018 lows with bears now initially

focused on $1.1690-1.1716 with overall focus on $1.1552 Now lows. Bulls look for

a close above $1.1889 to gain breathing room and target a correction back to

$1.1987-1.2053 where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3617 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.3666 High May 2

*RES 3: $1.3617 High May 9 

*RES 2: $1.3572 High May 15 

*RES 1: $1.3538 Hourly resistance May 17

*PRICE: $1.3507 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3471 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $1.3449 2018 Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3393 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 lows and

closes below the 200-DMA ($1.3561). The $1.3617 resistance remains key with

bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above $1.3711 to shift

initial focus to $1.3792-1.3906 where, 55 ($1.3906) & 100 ($1.3893) DMAs are

noted. Bears continue to look for a close below $1.3449 to initially target

$1.3300.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Closes Above 55-WMA

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.83 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 1: Y111.22 High Jan 22

*PRICE: Y110.93 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.47 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.64 Low May 15 

*SUP 4: Y109.13 Low May 11

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with the close above the 55-WMA adding

support to the case for a test of Y111.22-98. A close above Y111.98 is then

needed to target Y112.97-113.75 where the 200-WMA, Dec and 2018 highs are noted.

Bears still need a close below Y110.02 to gain breathing room and below the

100-DMA (Y108.39) to shift initial focus back to Y107.34-85 where the 55-DMA is

noted. The Bollinger top (Y110.90) remains the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.37 Resistance Key

*RES 4: Y132.21 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 3: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 2: Y131.27 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.23 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.94 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.22 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Y129.51 Low May 16 

*SUP 3: Y129.19 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y129.91 lacked follow through Wednesday which is less

than ideal for bears given daily studies correcting from O/S. Y131.37 remains

key resistance this week with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish

pressure and above the 100-DMA (Y132.54) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. While

Y131.37 caps bears initially focus on 2018 lows with a close below needed to

target the daily bear channel base around Y125.52 today.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8782

*RES 4: Gbp0.8866 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8844 High May 4 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8782 High May 16 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8760 Hourly resistance May 17

*PRICE: Gbp0.8734 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8710 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8618 2018 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is noted has

resulted in closes back below the 55-DMA and dips below Gbp0.8725 with immediate

focus now on Gbp0.8664-78. Below Gbp0.8664 confirms focus on tests of 2018 lows.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. The Gbp0.8782 resistance is

key today. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8782 to return pressure to

Gbp0.8844-0.8904.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7665 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7589 - High Apr 26

*RES 1: $0.7533 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7513 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7495 - Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returned to the 21-DMA after bears failed to trouble 2018

lows so far this week. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and above $0.7589 to shift initial focus back to $0.7648. Bears

continue to look for a close below 2018 lows to confirm focus on the $0.7326-68

region where May & June 17 lows are noted. Daily studies are well placed for a

fresh leg lower.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused on 200-WMA

*RES 4: 94.721 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 94.132 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 93.632 - 2018 High May 16

*PRICE: 93.492 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.378 - Hourly support May 17

*SUP 2: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 3: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 92.551 - Hourly support May 14

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 200-DMA provided the

impetus for fresh 2018 highs with bulls now focused on 94.219-721 where the

200-WMA is noted. O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. Bears now need a close

below 92.841 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA (91.949) to hint at

a move back to 90.563-788 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3.058

*RES 4: 3.249 - High May 12 2011 

*RES 3: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 2: 3.184 - High July 8 2011 

*RES 1: 3.128 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 3.124 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 3.087 - Low May 17 

*SUP 2: 3.058 - Low May 16 

*SUP 3: 3.011 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 4: 2.996 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated fresh 2018 & 7yr highs continue with bulls initially

focused on 3.184-3.249 where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are

situated. Daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal for bulls with the

Bollinger top (3.110) also a concern. Bears now look for a close below 3.058 to

gain breathing room and below 3.011 to shift focus back to 2.876-937 where the

55-DMA (2.894) is located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.26

*RES 4: $74.36 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.31 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $72.30 - 2018 High May 17

*PRICE: $71.61 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $70.26 - Low May 14 

*SUP 2: $69.57 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking offered Monday bears failed to capitalise on the

break of Friday's low with bulls taking comfort in the bounce that maintains

immediate pressure on the bull channel top and then the $73.25-74.36 region

above. Bears still need a close below $70.26 to ease bullish pressure and shift

initial focus back to $66.85-67.63. Modestly O/B daily studies remain the key

concern for bulls.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above 200-DMA To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1306.8 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1296.9 - High May 16

*PRICE: $1288.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.4 - 2018 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.4 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows have defined so far with closes below 55 & 200-WMAs

adding weight to the bearish case and immediate focus on $1268.9-1277.7 where

the 100-WMA is situated. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with bulls now needing a close

above the $1301.5 to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA to hint at a

correction to $1324.4-1332.6.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]