MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1838

*RES 4: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 3: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1838 High May 17

*PRICE: $1.1780 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1715 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 2: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1680 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows to start the new week have lacked follow through

with the pair bouncing from ahead of the Bollinger band base. In saying that,

bulls continue to look for a close above $1.1838 to gain breathing room and

above $1.1889 to target a correction back to $1.2019-1.2053 where the 200-DMA is

noted. While $1.1838 caps bears retain immediate focus on $1.1690-1.1715 with

overall focus on $1.1552 Now lows.

     CABLE TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA

*RES 4: $1.3572 High May 15 

*RES 3: $1.3538 Hourly resistance May 17 

*RES 2: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18 

*RES 1: $1.3449 Low May 15 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3417 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3389 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 2: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3284 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.3219 Low Nov 28

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains offered and currently flirts with the 55-WMA

($1.3400) following the dip to fresh 2018 lows Monday. Layers of resistance

accumulating continues to add weight to the case for a move back to $1.3300 and

then $1.2995-1.3065 where the 100-WMA is noted. Bulls now need a close above

$1.3449 to gain breathing room and above $1.3617 to hint at a move back to

$1.3792-1.3898 where, 55 ($1.3889) & 100 ($1.3891) DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-WMA

*RES 4: Y112.09 Daily Bull Channel top 

*RES 3: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 1: Y111.39 High May 21

*PRICE: Y110.91 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.44 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.73 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.64 Low May 15

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with closes above the 55-WMA ensuring

pressure remains on Y111.49-98. A close above Y111.98 is then needed to target

Y112.97-113.75 where the 200-WMA, Dec and 2018 highs are noted. Bears still need

a close below Y110.02 to gain breathing room and below the 100-DMA (Y108.36) to

shift initial focus back to Y107.34-85 where the 55-DMA is noted. The Bollinger

top (Y111.08) remains the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.37 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y132.07 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 3: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 2: Y131.24 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.05 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.64 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.22 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Y129.51 Low May 16 

*SUP 3: Y129.16 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the failure around 21 & 55-DMAs last week.

Y131.37 remains key resistance this week with bulls needing a close above to

confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs, easing bearish pressure, and above the 100-DMA

(Y132.45) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. While Y131.37 caps bears initially

focus on 2018 lows with a close below needed to target the daily bear channel

base around Y125.38 today.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8782

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8861 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8844 High May 4 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8782 High May 16

*PRICE: Gbp0.8776 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8751 Hourly support May 21 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8710 Low May 17 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: The rally from ahead of last week's low Monday resulted in closes

above 21 (Gbp0.8775) & 55 (gbp0.8767) DMAs but bulls still need a close above

Gbp0.8782 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and to return pressure to

Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is located. The Gbp0.8710 support is now key

this week. Bears now need a close below this level to shift overall focus to

retests of 2018 lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7683 - Falling daily TL off 2018 High

*RES 3: $0.7657 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 1: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*PRICE: $0.7585 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7547 - High May 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7528 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 4: $0.7445 - Low May 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 21-DMA took its toll Monday with a close

above $0.7547 confirming a break and bulls now looking for a close above $0.7589

to shift initial focus to $0.7648-83 where the 55-DMA and falling TL off 2018

highs are located. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to signal a false

break higher and below $0.7410 to reconfirm the bearish bias and confirm focus

on the $0.7326-68 region where May & June 17 lows are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 94.185 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 94.058 - 2018 High May 21 

*RES 1: 93.724 - Hourly resistance May 21

*PRICE: 93.533 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.546 - Hourly support May 18

*SUP 2: 93.340 - Low May 18

*SUP 3: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs to start the new week have lacked follow through

which is less than ideal with daily studies lingering around O/B levels. Bears

continue to look for a close below 93.340 to ease bullish pressure and below the

200-DMA (91.954) to hint at a move back to 90.597-929 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. Bulls now need a close above 94.219 to reconfirm a bullish bias and

retain focus on the 200-WMA (94.784).

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Looking Offered

*RES 4: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 3: 3.184 - High July 8 2011 

*RES 2: 3.139 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 3.084 - High May 21

*PRICE: 3.050 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 3.011 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 2: 3.002 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 4: 2.904 - Low Apr 20

*COMMENTARY: The yield is looking offered having sold-off Friday from around the

daily bull channel top. Bears now focus on the 21-DMA with a close below needed

to confirm a break of 3.011 and shift focus back to 2.876-937 where the 55-DMA

(2.897) is located. Bulls now need a close above 3.084 to gain breathing room

and above 3.128 2018 highs to reconfirm the bullish bias and focus on

3.184-3.254 where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Bull Channel Top Capping

*RES 4: $74.58 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.86 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $72.68 - 2018 High May 17

*PRICE: $72.50 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $71.94 - Hourly support May 21 

*SUP 2: $71.09 - Low May 17 

*SUP 3: $70.24 - Low May 14 

*SUP 4: $69.86 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remained on the daily bull channel top last week with

bulls currently focused on the $73.25-74.58 region where the weekly bull channel

top is located. O/B studies and daily momentum divergence are key concerns for

bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below $71.09 to gain breathing

room and below the 21-DMA now to shift initial focus back to $66.88-67.57.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1296.-1310.5 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1306.8 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1296.9 - High May 16

*PRICE: $1290.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 2: $1277.5 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.3 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows lacked follow through Monday which is a concern for

bears give daily studies approaching O/S. In saying that, layers of resistance

remain with bulls now needing a close above the $1301.5 to gain breathing room

and above the 200-DMA to hint at a correction to $1324.4-1332.6. While $1296.9

caps bears maintain focus on $1268.9-1277.5 where the 100-WMA is situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]