MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

23 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Overall Focus On Nov Low

*RES 4: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 3: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1838 High May 17

*PRICE: $1.1761 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1715 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 2: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1681 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows Monday lacked follow through with the pair bouncing

from ahead of the Bollinger band base. In saying that, bulls continue to look

for a close above $1.1838 to gain breathing room and above $1.1889 to target a

correction back to $1.2019-1.2053 where the 200-DMA is noted. While $1.1838 caps

bears retain immediate focus on $1.1690-1.1715 with overall focus on $1.1552 Now

lows.

     CABLE TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA

*RES 4: $1.3572 High May 15 

*RES 3: $1.3538 Hourly resistance May 17 

*RES 2: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18, High May 22 

*RES 1: $1.3445 Hourly resistance May 22

*PRICE: $1.3412 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3389 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 2: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3297 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.3219 Low Nov 28

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains offered and currently flirts with the 55-WMA

($1.3400) following the dip to fresh 2018 lows Monday. Layers of resistance

accumulating continues to add weight to the case for a move back to $1.3300 and

then $1.2995-1.3065 where the 100-WMA is noted. Bulls now need a close above

$1.3491 to gain breathing room and above $1.3617 to hint at a move back to

$1.3792-1.3898 where, 55 ($1.3881) & 100 ($1.3890) DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below 21-DMA To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance

*PRICE: Y110.46 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 2: Y109.81 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.64 Low May 15 

*SUP 4: Y109.13 Low May 11

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have struggled to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y110.43)

with topside follow through lacking this week so far. Bulls currently focus on

Y111.49-98. A close above Y111.98 remains needed to target Y112.97-113.75 where

the 200-WMA, Dec and 2018 highs are noted. Bears now need a close below the

21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA (Y107.86) to shift focus to

tests of 2018 lows. Correcting modestly O/B studies are a concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus On 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y132.00 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 3: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 2: Y131.01 Hourly support May 22 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.50 Hourly support May 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.92 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.51 Low May 16 

*SUP 2: Y129.16 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in failures around 21 & 55-DMAs leaving the pair

looking offered once again. Y131.37 remains key resistance this week with bulls

needing a close above to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs, easing bearish

pressure, and above the 200-DMA (Y132.42) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10.

While Y131.37 caps bears initially focus on 2018 lows with a close below needed

to target the daily bear channel base around Y125.31 today.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8789 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8860 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8844 High May 4 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8789 High May 16

*PRICE: Gbp0.8770 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8751 Hourly support May 21 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8710 Low May 17 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: The rally from ahead of last week's low Monday resulted in closes

above 21 (Gbp0.8775) & 55 (Gbp0.8764) DMAs with bulls now needing a close above

Gbp0.8789 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and to return pressure to

Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is located. The Gbp0.8710 support remains key

this week. Bears now need a close below this level to shift overall focus to

retests of 2018 lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7652 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7582 - Hourly resistance May 23

*PRICE: $0.7555 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7524 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 3: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was lacking Tuesday with the rejection ahead

of $0.7620 seeing pressure back on support layers. Bears now look for a close

below the 21-DMA to signal a false break higher and below $0.7410 to reconfirm

the bearish bias and target $0.7326-68 where May & June 17 lows are noted.

Layers of resistance remain $0.7620-77 with bulls needing a close above the

falling TL ($0.7677) to shift focus to $0.7735-0.7842.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 94.219

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 94.211 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 94.058 - 2018 High May 21 

*RES 1: 93.734 - High May 22

*PRICE: 93.697 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.291 - Low May 22

*SUP 2: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 3: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 92.595 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs to start the new week lacked follow through which

is less than ideal with daily studies lingering around O/B levels. Bears now

look for a close below 93.291 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA

(91.954) to hint at a move back to 90.597-929 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

Bulls now need a close above 94.219 to reconfirm a bullish bias and retain focus

on the 200-WMA (94.784).

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.084 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3.184 - High July 8 2011 

*RES 3: 3.145 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 3.128 - 2018 High May 18 

*RES 1: 3.084 - High May 21

*PRICE: 3.052 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 3.035 - High Apr 25 now support 

*SUP 2: 3.011 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 3: 3.006 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.937 - Low May 7

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains offered having sold-off Friday from around the

daily bull channel top. Bears focus on the 21-DMA with a close below needed to

confirm a break of 3.011 and shift focus back to 2.876-937 where the 55-DMA

(2.904) is located. Bulls need a close above 3.084 to gain breathing room and

above 3.128 2018 highs to reconfirm the bullish bias and focus on 3.184-3.254

where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Bull Channel Top Capping

*RES 4: $74.58 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.99 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $72.90 - 2018 High May 22

*PRICE: $71.94 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $71.82 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $71.09 - Low May 17 

*SUP 3: $70.24 - Low May 14 

*SUP 4: $70.05 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the daily bull channel top with bulls currently

focused on the $73.25-74.58 region where the weekly bull channel top is located.

O/B studies and daily momentum divergence are key concerns for bulls. In saying

that, bears now need a close below $71.82 to gain breathing room and below the

21-DMA now to shift initial focus back to $66.88-67.57.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1296.9-1310.5 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1306.9 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1296.9 - High May 16

*PRICE: $1292.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 2: $1277.5 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.3 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows lacked follow through Monday which is a concern for

bears give daily studies approaching O/S. In saying that, layers of resistance

remain with bulls needing a close above the $1301.5 to gain breathing room and

above the 200-DMA to hint at a correction to $1324.4-1332.6. While $1301.5 caps

bears maintain focus on $1268.9-1277.5 where the 100-WMA is situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]