MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

25 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1889 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 3: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 2: $1.1838 High May 17

*RES 1: $1.1750 High May 24

*PRICE: $1.1706 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1674 2018 Low May 23 

*SUP 2: $1.1646 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.1624 High Nov 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: Bears retain overall focus on tests of Nov lows at $1.1552

following fresh 2018 lows Wednesday. The Bollinger base is the key concern with

potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance remain adding weight to

the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above $1.1750 to gain breathing room

and above the $1.1889 to shift initial focus to $1.2019-1.2053 where the 200-DMA

is noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3300

*RES 4: $1.3525 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18, High May 22 

*RES 2: $1.3445 Hourly resistance May 22 

*RES 1: $1.3421 Low May 23

*PRICE: $1.3369 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3347 Hourly support May 24 

*SUP 2: $1.3311 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.3303 2018 Low May 23 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Bears are currently looking to gain traction below the 55-WMA

($1.3399) with a close below $1.3300 needed to confirm focus on $1.2995-1.3065

where the 100-WMA is noted. The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears with

potential to limit follow through. Bulls now need a close above $1.3421 to gain

breathing room and above $1.3617 to hint at a move back to $1.3792-1.3893 where,

55 ($1.3863) & 100 ($1.3885) DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.80 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.56 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.94 Low May 24 

*SUP 2: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y107.95 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y110.41) has

resulted in closes below the 200-DMA adding weight to the case for a correction

back to Y107.85-108.53 where the 21-WMA and 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Daily

studies correcting from O/B are a concern for bulls. Bears now look for a close

below Y107.85 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift initial focus to

Y106.57. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus On Y125.03-127.54

*RES 4: Y130.22 Low May 18 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.51 Low May 16 now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.15 200-WMA

*RES 1: Y128.94 Low Mar 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y128.27 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: Y125.80 Monthly Highs May 16 & 25 now support 

*SUP 3: Y125.24 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: Y125.03 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Failures around 21 & 55-DMAs left the pair looking heavy earlier

this week with bears taking comfort in Wednesday's sell-off and fresh 2018 lows

continuing. Daily studies approaching O/S is less than ideal with bears now

focusing their attention on the Y125.03-127.54 region where the 100-WMA and

daily bear channel base are found. Bulls now need a close above the 200-WMA to

gain breathing room and above Y130.22 to shift initial focus back to Y131.37.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 100-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: Gbp0.8856 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8850 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8795 100-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8779 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8754 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8737 Low May 23 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8710 Low May 17 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 100-DMA capping Wednesday. Bulls now look

for a close above the 100-DMA to return initial pressure to Gbp0.8850-0.8904

where the 55-WMA & 200-DMA are located. The Gbp0.8710 support remains key this

week. Bears now need a close below this level to shift overall focus to retests

of 2018 lows with a close below Gbp0.8664 then needed to confirm.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7520 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7643 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7582 - High May 23 & 24

*PRICE: $0.7566 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7520 - Low May 23 

*SUP 2: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 3: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA ($0.7527) is now supporting with pressure having

returned to the $0.7582 resistance. Bears now look for a close below $0.7520 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and below $0.7410 to reconfirm the bearish bias

and target $0.7326-68 where May & June 17 lows are noted. Layers of resistance

remain $0.7620-72 with bulls needing a close above the falling TL ($0.7666) to

shift focus to $0.7735-0.7842.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 94.219

*RES 4: 94.260 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 94.188 - 2018 High May 23 

*RES 1: 93.978 - High May 24

*PRICE: 93.892 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.611 - Low May 24

*SUP 2: 93.291 - Low May 22

*SUP 3: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 4: 92.985 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on recent 2018 highs remains a

concern this week. Daily studies correcting from O/B remain a concern for bulls.

Bulls need a close above 94.219 to reconfirm a bullish bias and retain focus on

the 200-WMA (94.784). Bears now need a close below 93.611 to gain breathing room

and below 93.291 to shift initial focus back to 91.957-92.223 where 21 &

200-DMAs are noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.030-050 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 

*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 2: 3.030 - Hourly resistance May 23 

*RES 1: 3.002 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 2.992 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.832 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in closes below the 21-DMA confirming a shift in

focus to 2.876-937 where the 55-DMA (2.907) is located. Correcting O/B studies

add weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above 3.050 to gain breathing

room and above 3.128 2018 highs to reconfirm the bullish bias and focus on

3.184-3.254 where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Pressuring Key Supports

*RES 4: $73.24 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $72.90 - 2018 High May 22 

*RES 2: $72.26 - High May 23 

*RES 1: $71.22 - Hourly resistance May 24 May 23

*PRICE: $70.64 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $70.30 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $70.24 - Low May 14 

*SUP 3: $67.57 - Low May 8 

*SUP 4: $66.74 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top is less than ideal for

bulls with daily studies correcting from O/B. Bears now look for a close below

$70.24 to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to $65.38-67.57 where the bull

channel base and 55-DMA are located. Layers of resistance are accumulating and

weighing with bulls now needing a close above $71.22 to gain breathing room and

above $72.26 to reconfirm focus on $73.24-74.58.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1310.5

*RES 4: $1326.2 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1321.9 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1307.1 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1302.7 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1297.8 - High May 23 now support 

*SUP 2: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 3: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 4: $1277.6 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows combined with O/S

studies has provided the impetus for a bounce that sees gold pressuring the

200-DMA. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and

shift initial focus to $1321.9-1326.2 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now

need a close below $1297.8 to ease pressure on the 200-DMA and return immediate

focus to 2018 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]