MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

7 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.1889 To Target $1.2011-53

*RES 4: $1.2039 55-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2010 200-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1854 High May 16

*PRICE: $1.1788 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1751 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1708 Low June 6 

*SUP 3: $1.1616 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: $1.1594 Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 21-DMA adds to bullish confidence but a close

above $1.1889 remains needed to shift immediate focus back to $1.2010-53 where

the 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. Initial support is now noted at the 21-DMA but

bears now look for a close below $1.1708 to signal a false break and return

initial focus to $1.1506-1.1616 where 2018 lows are located. Daily studies are

well placed for a fresh leg higher.

     CABLE TECHS: Focus Shifts To 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3617 High May 9 

*RES 3: $1.3593 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3528 High May 18 

*RES 1: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18, High May 22

*PRICE: $1.3421 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3379 Hourly support June 5 

*SUP 2: $1.3331 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1.3292 Low June 4 

*SUP 4: $1.3240 Low May 30

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows resulted in a close above the 21-DMA

($1.3406), easing bearish pressure and shifting focus to $1.3593-1.3711 where

the 200-DMA is situated. Support layers building add to bullish confidence.

Bears now look for a close below $1.3379 to gain breathing room and below f

$1.3203 needed to reconfirm the bearish bias and focus on $1.2995-1.3070 where

the 100-WMA is found.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.99 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.77 Low June 6 

*SUP 2: Y109.36 Low June 4 

*SUP 3: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.70 Low June 1

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip into the Y107.85-108.35 region where 55 &

100-DMAs and the 21-WMA (Y108.09) are situated has seen pressure return to the

200-DMA (Y110.19). Bulls look for a close above Y110.72 to confirm traction

above the 200-DMA and return immediate focus to Y111.39-98. Daily studies

correcting from modestly O/S levels added support to the bullish case. Bears now

need a close below Y109.36 to gain breathing room.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Key Support Today

*RES 4: Y131.22 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 3: Y131.04 55-WMA

*RES 2: Y130.59 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y130.22 Low May 18 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.66 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.07 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y128.18 Hourly resistance June 5 now support 

*SUP 3: Y127.77 Low June 5 

*SUP 4: Y127.56 Low June 4

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 21-DMA & Y129.51 added to bullish confidence

and sees focus now on layers of resistance Y130.22-132.59 where key DMAs, WMAs

and the daily bear channel top are situated. A close above Y132.59 is now needed

to confirm breaks and to see bulls targeting Y134.12-137.50 where the falling TL

off 2014 highs is found. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease

bullish pressure and below Y127.10 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Weekly Bear Channel Top Capping

*RES 4: Gbp0.8858 55-WMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8835 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8810 Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 High 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8787 100-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8780 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8720 Low June 6 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Follow through on pops above the 100-DMA remains lacking with the

pair remaining capped around the weekly bear channel top (Gbp0.8810) off 2017

highs. Bulls need a close above the 55-WMA to confirm a break of the channel top

and to shift initial focus back to 2018 highs. Bears continue to look for a

close below Gbp0.8694 to confirm a return in focus to tests of 2018 lows and

then Gbp0.8531 below.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Finding Support On Dips

*RES 4: $0.7751 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7748 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: $0.7730 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7682 - High Apr 23

*PRICE: $0.7646 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7593 - High May 31 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7561 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7513 - Low June 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7474 - Low May 30

*COMMENTARY: The break of the bear channel top off 2018 highs Tuesday lacked

follow through with the pullback confirming significance of $0.7593. Bears need

a close below to ease bullish pressure and see focus return to $0.7410-0.7513.

Bulls take comfort in pressure returning to $0.7682 with a close above to

reconfirm initial focus on $0.7730-52 where 100 & 200-DMAs and 21 & 55-WMAs are

noted. Above the 200-DMA shifts immediate focus to $0.7916 Mar highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 93.291

*RES 4: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 94.450 - High June 1 

*RES 2: 93.933 - Hourly resistance June 5

*RES 1: 93.674 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 93.518 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.291 - Low May 22

*SUP 2: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 92.223 - Low May 14

*SUP 4: 92.008 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the dip below the 21-DMA but the 93.291

support remains key. Bears need a close below to confirm traction below the

21-DMA and target a move back to 92.008-223 where the 200-DMA is noted.

Correcting O/B studies have added weight to the bearish case. The 94.450

resistance is key. Bulls now need a close above 94.450 to end correction talk

and initially focus on 2018 highs.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.014 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 3.128 - 2018 High May 18 

*RES 3: 3.084 - High May 21 

*RES 2: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 1: 3.014 - High May 24

*PRICE: 2.977 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.946 - High June 4 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.900 - Low June 5 

*SUP 3: 2.860 - Low June 1 

*SUP 4: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: Having found support around the 55-DMA (2.911) the yield is now

pressuring the 21-DMA (2.975). Above 3.014 is needed to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and add support to the initial case for a retest of 2018 highs.

Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case. Bears now need a close

below 2.900 to ease bullish pressure and below 2.860 to reconfirm focus on

2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: $68.17 - Hourly resistance May 31 

*RES 3: $67.36 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $66.04 - Hourly resistance June 1 

*RES 1: $66.55 - Hourly resistance June 6

*PRICE: $64.99 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $63.87 - High Apr 5 

*SUP 2: $61.73 - Monthly Low Apr 6 

*SUP 3: $59.61 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $59.23 - Monthly Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues flirting with the 100-DMA ($64.78). Bears

look for a close below $63.87 to shift initial focus to $61.73 and overall focus

to $56.93-59.61 where the 200-DMA and Feb lows are noted. Layers of resistance

are weighing despite daily studies at O/S levels. Bulls now need a close above

the 55-DMA ($67.36) to gain breathing room and above $68.67 to shift focus

higher.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1310.5 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1317.9 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1307.3 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $1301.9 - High June 6

*PRICE: $1296.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 3: $1280.7 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1276.4 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The pop above the 21-DMA ($1298.2) lacked follow through with the

200-DMA just above. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 &

200-DMAs and shift initial focus to $1317.9-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs & the

21-WMA are noted. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-WMA to target

$1233.4-1234.3 where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015 lows are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]