MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

8 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.1889 To Target $1.2010-53

*RES 4: $1.2029 55-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2010 200-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1854 High May 16

*PRICE: $1.1795 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1746 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1708 Low June 6 

*SUP 3: $1.1616 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: $1.1594 Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: The closes above the 21-DMA added to bullish confidence but a close

above $1.1889 remains needed to shift immediate focus back to $1.2010-53 where

the 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. Initial support is now noted at the 21-DMA but

bears now look for a close below $1.1708 to return initial focus to

$1.1506-1.1616 where 2018 lows are located. Daily studies now approaching O/B is

a concern for bulls.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3379 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1.3617 High May 9 

*RES 3: $1.3596 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3528 High May 18 

*RES 1: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18, High May 22

*PRICE: $1.3414 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3379 Hourly support June 5 

*SUP 2: $1.3331 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 3: $1.3292 Low June 4 

*SUP 4: $1.3240 Low May 30

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows resulted in closes above the 21-DMA

($1.3401), easing bearish pressure and shifting focus to $1.3596-1.3711 where

the 200-DMA is situated. Support layers building add to bullish confidence.

Bears now look for a close below $1.3379 to gain breathing room and below f

$1.3203 needed to reconfirm the bearish bias and focus on $1.2995-1.3070 where

the 100-WMA is found.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.36 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.67 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.36 Low June 4 

*SUP 2: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 3: Y108.70 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.08 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip into the Y107.85-108.58 region where 55 &

100-DMAs and the 21-WMA (Y108.08) are situated saw pressure return to the

200-DMA (Y110.19). Bulls look for a close above Y110.72 to confirm traction

above the 200-DMA and return immediate focus to Y111.39-98. Daily studies

correcting from modestly O/S levels added support to the bullish case. Bears now

need a close below Y109.36 to gain breathing room.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y128.70-129.01 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y131.03 55-WMA

*RES 3: Y130.58 55-DMA

*RES 2: Y130.27 High June 7

*RES 1: Y129.78 Hourly support June 7 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.36 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.01 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y128.70 High June 5 now support 

*SUP 3: Y128.18 Hourly resistance June 5 now support 

*SUP 4: Y127.77 Low June 5

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 21-DMA & Y129.51 added to bullish confidence

and shifted focus to Y130.27-132.59 where key DMAs, WMAs and the daily bear

channel top are situated. A close above Y132.59 is needed to confirm breaks and

to see bulls targeting Y134.12-137.50 where the falling TL off 2014 highs is

found. Bears now look for a close below the Y128.70 to ease bullish pressure and

below Y127.10 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 200-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8858 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8833 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8807 Hourly resistance June 7

*PRICE: Gbp0.8791 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8774 Low June 7 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8720 Low June 5 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: The pop above the weekly bear channel top (Gbp0.8810) was capped by

the 200-DMA and ahead of the 55-WMA with the correction leaving the pair a

little offered. Bears now need a close below Thursday's Gbp0.8774 low to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8694 to confirm a return in focus

to tests of 2018 lows and then Gbp0.8531 below. Bulls need a close above the

55-WMA to confirm a break of the channel top and target 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7682 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $0.7750 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7747 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: $0.7726 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7682 - High Apr 23, 200-WMA

*PRICE: $0.7606 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7593 - High May 31 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7563 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7513 - Low June 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7474 - Low May 30

*COMMENTARY: The break of the bear channel top off 2018 highs Tuesday lacked

follow through with the pullback confirming significance of $0.7593. Bears need

a close below to ease bullish pressure and see focus return to $0.7410-0.7513.

Hesitation ahead of $0.7682 remains a concern for bulls with a close above to

reconfirm initial focus on $0.7726-50 where 100 & 200-DMAs and 21 & 55-WMAs are

noted. Above the 200-DMA shifts immediate focus to $0.7916 Mar highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 21-DMA Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 94.450 - High June 1 

*RES 2: 93.933 - Hourly resistance June 5 

*RES 1: 93.707 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 93.461 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.213 - Low June 7

*SUP 2: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 92.223 - Low May 14

*SUP 4: 92.011 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 21-DMA adds weight to the bearish case for a

move back to 91.892-223 where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. The break of 93.291

has so far lacked follow through which is less than ideal for bears but bulls

now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease renewed bearish pressure and above

94.450 to regain the upper hand and initially focus on 2018 highs.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884 & 3.014 Levels Now Key

*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 2: 2.994 - High June 7 

*RES 1: 2.967 - Hourly support June 7 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.933 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.884 - Low June 7 

*SUP 2: 2.860 - Low June 1 

*SUP 3: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 3.014 resulted in a sell-off Thursday and dip

below the 55-DMA (2.911) easing bullish pressure. Bears now need a close below

2.884 lows from Thursday to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and to return focus to

2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted. Daily momentum studies are back at

neutral levels and ready for a fresh leg lower. Bulls need a close above 3.014

to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target 2018 highs.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: $68.67 - High May 30 

*RES 3: $68.17 - Hourly resistance May 31 

*RES 2: $67.41 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $66.35 - Low May 30 now resistance

*PRICE: $66.03 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $65.59 - Hourly support June 7 

*SUP 2: $64.82 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $63.87 - High Apr 5 

*SUP 4: $61.73 - Monthly Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of follow through on dips below the

100-DMA with focus having returned to $66.35-68.98 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted.

Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA ($67.41) to gain breathing room and above

the 21-DMA ($68.98) to shift focus higher. While the 55-DMA caps bears retain

the advantage and need a close below $63.87 to shift initial focus to $61.73 and

overall focus to $56.93-59.61 where the 200-DMA and Feb lows are noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1310.5 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1317.3 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1307.2 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $1303.8 - High June 7

*PRICE: $1296.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $1282.9 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 4: $1276.4 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Pops above the 21-DMA ($1297.1) lack follow through with the

200-DMA just above. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 &

200-DMAs and shift initial focus to $1317.3-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs & the

21-WMA are noted. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-WMA to target

$1233.4-1234.3 where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015 lows are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]