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Trend Condition Remains Bearish

19 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11
*RES 3: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.1691 21-DMA
*RES 1: $1.1660 Hourly resistance June 14
*PRICE: $1.1628 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1595 Hourly support June 18 
*SUP 2: $1.1541 Low June 15, Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 
*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017
*COMMENTARY: An inside day to start the week with bears remaining focused on
tests of 2018 lows. Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg lower with
the Bollinger base ($1.1541) the key concern. Bears continue to look for a close
below $1.1311 to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1429) & 200-WMAs, shifting immediate
focus to $1.1117 June 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close above $1.1723 to shift
focus back to $1.1854-94.
     CABLE TECHS: $1.3297-1.3350 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: $1.3446 High June 14 
*RES 3: $1.3414 Hourly support June 14 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.3350 Hourly resistance June 14 
*RES 1: $1.3297 High June 15
*PRICE: $1.3257 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3223 Low June 18 
*SUP 2: $1.3203 2018 Low May 29 
*SUP 3: $1.3072 100-WMA 
*SUP 4: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support
*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through has been lacking the past two weeks with the
sharp sell-off Thursday returning immediate focus to 2018 lows. Bears look for a
close below $1.3203 to initially target $1.2995-1.3072 where the 100-WMA is
located. Daily studies are well placed for losses but the Bollinger base
($1.3220) may limit follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.3297 to gain
breathing room and above $1.3350 to return focus to $1.3446-3528.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Dipping Into Key Support Region
*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 
*RES 3: Y110.90 High June 15 
*RES 2: Y110.62 Hourly resistance June 8 
*RES 1: Y110.23 200-DMA
*PRICE: Y109.67 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.11 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 
*SUP 3: Y108.70 Low June 1 
*SUP 4: Y108.14 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 200-DMA (Y110.23) sees the
pair dipping into the Y109.01-84 support region. Bears need a close below
Y109.84 to ease bullish pressure and below Y109.01 to pressure Y107.85-108.14
where the 100-DMA is found. Daily studies at O/B levels is less than ideal for
bulls. Bulls now need a close above Y110.90 to confirm traction above the
200-DMA and return immediate focus to Y111.39-98.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y127.10 Support Key This Week
*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance
*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 2: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14
*RES 1: Y128.00 Hourly support June 19 now resistance
*PRICE: Y127.56 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y127.10 Low June 1 
*SUP 2: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 3: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29 
*SUP 4: Y123.63 Low June 21 2017
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA (Y130.31) and
Y130.31-132.59 where key DMAs, WMAs and the daily bear channel top are situated
combined with O/B studies looking to correct provided the impetus for a sharp
sell-off that shifted overall focus back to 2018 lows. Bears now need a close
below Y127.10 to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above Y128.64
to gain breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA once again.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8789 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8858 55-WMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8821 200-DMA 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8789 Hourly support June 14 now resistance
*PRICE: Gbp0.8768 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8754 Hourly support June 18, 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8707 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on sell-offs is a concern for bears and has seen
the pair correct back to Gbp0.8789. Bulls continue to look for a close above
this level to shift focus back to Gbp0.8821-58 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are
located. Initial support is now noted at Gbp0.8754 with bears needing a close
below to gain breathing room. Overall a close below Gbp0.8694 is needed to
confirm focus on 2018 lows.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7481 To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: $0.7583 - Hourly resistance June 13
*RES 3: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7481 - High June 15
*RES 1: $0.7456 - High June 18
*PRICE: $0.7401 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7391 - 2018 Low May 19 
*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 
*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 
*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from ahead of $0.7682 has now resulted in fresh 2018 &
12 month lows adding weight to the case for a test of $0.7326-68 May & June 2017
lows. Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with bulls needing a close
above $0.7481 to gain breathing room and above $0.7627 to shift initial focus
back to layers of resistance $0.7682-0.7735 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. O/S
studies are a concern for bears.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Remains Offered
*RES 4: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 
*RES 3: 95.131 - 2018 High June 15 
*RES 2: 95.041 - 200-WMA 
*RES 1: 94.746 - Hourly support June 19 now resistance
*PRICE: 94.538 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 94.071 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 94.028 - High June 13 now support
*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14
*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on pops above the 200-WMA has
left the index looking offered with bears now needing a close below 94.028 to
confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to 92.841-93.193. Bulls now
need a close above 95.167 to initially target 96.512 weekly highs from July
2017. Daily studies are at largely neutral levels and giving few clues.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.937 To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: 3.014 - High May 24 
*RES 3: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 
*RES 2: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance 
*RES 1: 2.937 - High June 15
*PRICE: 2.888 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.860 - Low June 1 
*SUP 2: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 
*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29
*COMMENTARY: The yield remains offered as it currently flirts with the 2.884
support. Bears need a close below this level to confirm traction below 55
(2.930) & 100 (2.887) DMAs and shift focus to 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are
noted. Bulls now look for a close above 2.937 to gain breathing room and above
3.014 to end bearish hopes and target 2018 highs.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Above $68.52 To End Bearish Hopes
*RES 4: $68.52 - High May 30 
*RES 3: $67.34 - 55-DMA 
*RES 2: $67.12 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: $66.18 - Low June 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $65.35 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $65.29 - Hourly resistance May 18 now support 
*SUP 2: $64.78 - Hourly support June 18 
*SUP 3: $63.98 - Low June 18 
*SUP 4: $63.21 - Daily bull channel base off Aug 30 low
*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading continued to start the new week with the contract
recovering from the day's low to gain breathing room. Focus now returns to
$67.12-68.52 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted. Bulls need a close above $68.52 to
end bearish hopes and shift initial focus back to $70.86-72.70. Bears now need a
close below $64.78 to return focus to the bull channel base ($63.21) of Aug 30
lows.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1286.2-1294.9 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1305.2 - Hourly resistance June 14 
*RES 2: $1294.9 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15
*PRICE: $1283.4 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1275.4 - 100-WMA 
*SUP 2: $1275.0 - 2018 Low June 15 
*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 now support 
*SUP 4: $1234.1 - 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The $1310.5 resistance reconfirmed significance with the pop above
the 200-DMA ($1305.7) lacking follow through. Friday's sell-off resulted in 2018
lows with immediate pressure on the 100-WMA. Bears need a close below the
100-WMA to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA. Bulls need a close
above $1286.2 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to return pressure to
$1310.5.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]