MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

20 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1680 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1660 Hourly resistance June 14

*PRICE: $1.1570 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1528 Low June 19, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1406 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears remain focused on tests of 2018 lows although follow through

was lacking Tuesday with support emerging ahead of 2018 lows. The Bollinger base

is the key concern for bears and currently limits follow through. Bears continue

to look for a close below $1.1311 to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1429) & 200-WMAs,

shifting immediate focus to $1.1117 June 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close

above $1.1723 to shift focus back to $1.1854-94.

     CABLE TECHS: Focus Shifts To $1.2995-1.3071

*RES 4: $1.3350 Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 3: $1.3297 High June 15 

*RES 2: $1.3223 Low June 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3186 Hourly resistance June 20

*PRICE: $1.3156 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3148 2018 Low June 19 

*SUP 2: $1.3071 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2849 Low Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in fresh 2018 & 9mth lows with the close below

$1.3203 confirming immediate focus on the $1.2995-1.3071 support region where

the 100-WMA is noted. The pair has room to move before O/S is an issue although

the Bollinger base ($1.3177) limits follow through. Bulls now need a close above

$1.3223 to gain breathing room and above $1.3350 to return focus to

$1.3446-3528. Bears now need a close below $1.3148 to add weight to their case.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.01

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.90 High June 15 

*RES 2: Y110.62 Hourly resistance June 8 

*RES 1: Y110.23 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y110.13 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.53 Low June 19 

*SUP 2: Y109.18 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.70 Low June 1

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 200-DMA (Y110.23) saw the

pair dipping back towards the Y109.01 support. Bears still need a close below

Y109.01 to initially pressure Y107.85-108.15 where the 100-DMA is found with

below Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows. Daily studies correcting from

O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bulls now need a close above Y110.90 to

confirm traction above the 200-DMA and return immediate focus to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y128.64 to Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: Y128.00 Hourly support June 19 now resistance

*PRICE: Y127.36 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.18 Hourly support June 20 

*SUP 2: Y126.63 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Despite an aggressive sell-off follow through has been lacking.

Bears focus on the Y126.22 support with a close below to add weight to the case

for a test of 2018 lows and a potential move back to the bull channel base

(Y122.89). Bulls continue to look for a close above Y128.64 to gain breathing

room and above 129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA once again. The Bollinger base is

noted at Y126.06 and is expected to limit follow through on a break below.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Focus Back On Gbp0.8820-58

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8858 55-WMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8820 200-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8791 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8779 High June 18 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8750 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: The close above Gbp0.8789 shifts focus back to Gbp0.8820-58 where

the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are located. Bulls look for a close above the 55-WMA to

shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8967-0.9107. Initial support is now noted at

Gbp0.8779 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room. A close below

Gbp0.8694 remains needed to confirm focus on tests of 2018 lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7326 To Target 2017 Low

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 2: $0.7456 - High June 18

*RES 1: $0.7430 - Hourly support June 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7390 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7366 - Hourly support June 20 

*SUP 2: $0.7344 - 2018 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from ahead of $0.7682 has now resulted in fresh 2018 &

12month lows adding weight to the case for a test of $0.7326 May 2017 lows.

Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with bulls needing a close above

$0.7430 to gain breathing room and above $0.7481 to shift initial focus back to

$0.7527-0.7327 where 21 ($0.7545) & 55 ($7581) DMAs are noted. Bears now need a

close below $0.7326 to target $0.7160 2017 lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Above 200-WMA

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.575 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 95.296 - 2018 High June 19

*PRICE: 95.099 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.534 - Low June 19

*SUP 2: 94.162 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on pops above the 200-WMA

(95.043) is less than ideal with the 100-WMA lurking just above. Bulls now need

a close above the 100-WMA to initially target 96.617. Daily studies have room to

move before O/B is an issue. Bears now need a close below 94.534 to gain

breathing room and below 94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift

initial focus back to 93.193.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.937 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 3: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.937 - High June 15 

*RES 1: 2.906 - Hourly resistance June 18

*PRICE: 2.893 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.884 - Hourly support June 19 

*SUP 2: 2.852 - Low June 19 

*SUP 3: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: The break of 2.884 and the 100-DMA (2.890) has so far lacked follow

through. Bears now need a close below 2.852 to confirm traction below the

100-DMA and add weight to the case for a test of 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows

are noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.937 to gain breathing room

and above 3.014 to end bearish hopes and initially target 2018 highs.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) $61.43 & $68.52 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $68.52 - High May 30 

*RES 3: $67.38 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $66.76 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $66.18 - Low June 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $65.12 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $64.23 - Low June 19 

*SUP 2: $63.98 - Low June 18 

*SUP 3: $63.29 - Daily bull channel base off Aug 30 low 

*SUP 4: $62.52 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading continues with oil giving back some of Monday's

gains. The $66.96-68.52 resistance region where the 21 & 55-DMAs are located

remains key. Bulls need a close above $68.52 to end bearish hopes and shift

initial focus back to $70.86-72.70. Bears now need a close below the bull

channel base ($63.29) of Aug 30 lows to reconfirm the bearish bias and initially

pressure $61.43.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Flirting With 100-WMA ($1275.3)

*RES 4: $1305.2 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 3: $1293.7 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 1: $1284.1 - High June 19

*PRICE: $1273.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1270.0 - 2018 Low June 19 

*SUP 2: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 now support 

*SUP 3: $1234.1 - 200-WMA, LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 4: $1214.0 - Low July 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows continued Tuesday with gold flirting with

the 100-WMA. A weekly close below would add significant weight to the case for a

test of the 200-WMA and LT rising TL off 2015 lows. Gold has room to move before

O/S is an issue although the Bollinger base ($1275.9) limits follow through.

Bulls need a close above $1286.2 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to

return pressure to $1310.5.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]