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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
5 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11
*RES 3: $1.1791 55-DMA
*RES 2: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1697 Hourly resistance July 2
*PRICE: $1.1657 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1627 Low July 4
*SUP 2: $1.1589 Low July 2
*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29
*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the bear channel top off Apr 19 highs capping
last week with the $1.1723 resistance key. Bulls still need a close above
$1.1723 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA ($1.1659) and bear channel top ($1.1634)
initially targeting $1.1792-1.1901. Bears continue to look for a close below
$1.1506 to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1441) & 200
($1.1393) WMAs may slow the move.
CABLE TECHS: $1.2995 & $1.3314 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: $1.3429 55-DMA
*RES 3: $1.3314 High June 22
*RES 2: $1.3255 Hourly resistance June 26
*RES 1: $1.3251 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1.3221 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3216 Hourly support July 5
*SUP 2: $1.3154 Hourly support July 3
*SUP 3: $1.3092 Low July 2
*SUP 4: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 9mth lows lacked follow through with cable flirting
with the 100-WMA ($1.3073) before rallying Friday. The rally bought bulls
breathing room but a close above $1.3314 remains needed to shift initial focus
back to $1.3429-1.3528 where the 55-WMA ($1.3445) & 55-DMA ($1.3429) are noted.
Bears dominate while $1.3314 caps and continue to look for a close below to
$1.2995 initially target $1.2770 Aug lows.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y112.04 To Target 200-WMA & 2018 High
*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18
*RES 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21
*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22
*RES 1: Y110.61 Hourly resistance July 5
*PRICE: Y110.34 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.15 200-DMA
*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28
*SUP 3: Y109.82 55-DMA
*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern with Y111.39-112.04 where May highs
are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end bearish
hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.22-44 where the 200-WMA (Y113.22) is
noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a close below the
200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to return pressure to
Y109.01. A close below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.24.
EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: Y130.32 100-DMA
*RES 3: Y129.81 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 highs
*RES 2: Y129.50 55-DMA
*RES 1: Y129.05 Hourly resistance July 3
*PRICE: Y128.66 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.40 Low July 2
*SUP 2: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support
*SUP 3: Y126.98 Low June 21
*SUP 4: Y126.63 Low June 19
*COMMENTARY: The rally from last week's low saw pressure return to
Y129.50-130.32 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top off 2018 highs are
situated. Bears take comfort in the topside failures with bulls needing a close
above the 100-DMA (Y130.32) to initially target Y131.37-132.59 where the 200-DMA
(Y131.97) is noted. Bears now need a close below Y128.40 to gain breathing room
and below Y126.22 to confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018 lows.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8779 & Gbp0.8840 Levels Key Today
*RES 4: Gbp0.8890 High June 29
*RES 3: Gbp0.8868 High July 2
*RES 2: Gbp0.8840 High July 4
*RES 1: Gbp0.8820 200-DMA, Hourly resistance July 5
*PRICE: Gbp0.8815 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8898 21-DMA
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25, 55-DMA
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15
*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was lacking Thursday and Friday which is a
concern for bulls when combined with daily studies at modestly O/B levels and
the Bollinger top at Gbp0.8863. The close below the 200-DMA sees immediate focus
back on Gbp0.8779 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bears now need a close below the
55-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715. Bulls now need a close above
Gbp0.8840 to gain breathing room and shift focus back to Gbp0.8868-0.8904.
AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7552 To Target 100 & 200-DMAs
*RES 4: $0.7481 - High June 15
*RES 3: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26
*RES 2: $0.7441 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7397 - Hourly support July 4 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7382 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2
*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017
*SUP 4: $0.7255 - Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows Monday added to bearish confidence with
bears targeting $0.7152 Dec 2016 monthly lows, although the weekly bear channel
base ($0.7216) may slow the move. In saying that, bulls need a close above
$0.7443 to gain breathing room and above $0.7552 now to confirm a break of the
55-DMA ($0.7509) and shift focus to $0.7624-0.7735 where 100 & 200-DMAs are
situated.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Trading Below 21-DMA/Channel Base
*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017
*RES 3: 95.544 - 100-WMA
*RES 2: 95.141 - High July 2
*RES 1: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance
*PRICE: 94.507 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 94.397 - Low July 4
*SUP 2: 94.028 - High June 13 now support
*SUP 3: 93.556 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through with hesitation
around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close above the
100-WMA (95.544) to target 96.617. The 94.028 support remains key. Bears need a
close below this level to confirm traction below the 21-DMA (94.520) and bull
channel base (94.658) and to shift initial focus back to 93.193-556 where the
55-DMA is located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Now Key
*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21
*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26
*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3
*RES 1: 2.855 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.846 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30
*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a
*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29
*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2
*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure remains on the 2.821 support with overall
bearish focus currently on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The
Bollinger base (2.812) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears.
Bulls continue now look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above
2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050
resistance region.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.18 To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: $76.06 - Weekly Bull channel top
*RES 3: $75.57 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3
*RES 1: $74.90 - High July 4
*PRICE: $73.88 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $73.50 - Hourly support July 3
*SUP 2: $72.73 - Low July 3
*SUP 3: $72.51 - Low July 2
*SUP 4: $72.18 - Hourly support June 27
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs Tuesday remained capped ahead of daily and
weekly bull channel tops. The Bollinger top ($75.61) and very O/B daily studies
remain key concerns for bulls and limit follow through. Bears now need a close
below $73.50 to gain breathing room. Below $72.18 remains needed to hint at a
move back to $69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add weight to their case.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: 200-WMA & LT Rising TL Confirm Significance
*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15
*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19
*RES 2: $1273.5 - 100-WMA
*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance
*PRICE: $1256.4 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1251.4 - Low July 4
*SUP 2: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3
*SUP 3: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3
*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through Tuesday with an
aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key
200-WMA support. Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of
key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls need a close above $1262.7 to
return pressure to $1273.5 where the 100-WMA is noted. Correcting O/S studies
are a concern for bears.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.