MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

5 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1791 55-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1697 Hourly resistance July 2

*PRICE: $1.1657 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 2: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the bear channel top off Apr 19 highs capping

last week with the $1.1723 resistance key. Bulls still need a close above

$1.1723 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA ($1.1659) and bear channel top ($1.1634)

initially targeting $1.1792-1.1901. Bears continue to look for a close below

$1.1506 to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1441) & 200

($1.1393) WMAs may slow the move.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2995 & $1.3314 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $1.3429 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.3314 High June 22 

*RES 2: $1.3255 Hourly resistance June 26 

*RES 1: $1.3251 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3221 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3216 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 2: $1.3154 Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 3: $1.3092 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 9mth lows lacked follow through with cable flirting

with the 100-WMA ($1.3073) before rallying Friday. The rally bought bulls

breathing room but a close above $1.3314 remains needed to shift initial focus

back to $1.3429-1.3528 where the 55-WMA ($1.3445) & 55-DMA ($1.3429) are noted.

Bears dominate while $1.3314 caps and continue to look for a close below to

$1.2995 initially target $1.2770 Aug lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y112.04 To Target 200-WMA & 2018 High

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.61 Hourly resistance July 5

*PRICE: Y110.34 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.15 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: Y109.82 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern with Y111.39-112.04 where May highs

are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end bearish

hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.22-44 where the 200-WMA (Y113.22) is

noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a close below the

200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to return pressure to

Y109.01. A close below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.24.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y130.32 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y129.81 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 highs

*RES 2: Y129.50 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y129.05 Hourly resistance July 3

*PRICE: Y128.66 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 2: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 3: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: Y126.63 Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: The rally from last week's low saw pressure return to

Y129.50-130.32 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top off 2018 highs are

situated. Bears take comfort in the topside failures with bulls needing a close

above the 100-DMA (Y130.32) to initially target Y131.37-132.59 where the 200-DMA

(Y131.97) is noted. Bears now need a close below Y128.40 to gain breathing room

and below Y126.22 to confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018 lows.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8779 & Gbp0.8840 Levels Key Today 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8890 High June 29 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8868 High July 2 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8840 High July 4 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8820 200-DMA, Hourly resistance July 5

*PRICE: Gbp0.8815 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8898 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25, 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was lacking Thursday and Friday which is a

concern for bulls when combined with daily studies at modestly O/B levels and

the Bollinger top at Gbp0.8863. The close below the 200-DMA sees immediate focus

back on Gbp0.8779 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bears now need a close below the

55-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715. Bulls now need a close above

Gbp0.8840 to gain breathing room and shift focus back to Gbp0.8868-0.8904.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7552 To Target 100 & 200-DMAs

*RES 4: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 3: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*RES 2: $0.7441 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7397 - Hourly support July 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7382 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7255 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows Monday added to bearish confidence with

bears targeting $0.7152 Dec 2016 monthly lows, although the weekly bear channel

base ($0.7216) may slow the move. In saying that, bulls need a close above

$0.7443 to gain breathing room and above $0.7552 now to confirm a break of the

55-DMA ($0.7509) and shift focus to $0.7624-0.7735 where 100 & 200-DMAs are

situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Trading Below 21-DMA/Channel Base

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.544 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.141 - High July 2 

*RES 1: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.507 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.397 - Low July 4

*SUP 2: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 3: 93.556 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through with hesitation

around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close above the

100-WMA (95.544) to target 96.617. The 94.028 support remains key. Bears need a

close below this level to confirm traction below the 21-DMA (94.520) and bull

channel base (94.658) and to shift initial focus back to 93.193-556 where the

55-DMA is located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Now Key

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.855 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.846 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure remains on the 2.821 support with overall

bearish focus currently on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The

Bollinger base (2.812) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears.

Bulls continue now look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above

2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050

resistance region.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.18 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $76.06 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $75.57 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3 

*RES 1: $74.90 - High July 4

*PRICE: $73.88 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $73.50 - Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 2: $72.73 - Low July 3 

*SUP 3: $72.51 - Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $72.18 - Hourly support June 27

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs Tuesday remained capped ahead of daily and

weekly bull channel tops. The Bollinger top ($75.61) and very O/B daily studies

remain key concerns for bulls and limit follow through. Bears now need a close

below $73.50 to gain breathing room. Below $72.18 remains needed to hint at a

move back to $69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add weight to their case.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 200-WMA & LT Rising TL Confirm Significance

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1273.5 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1256.4 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1251.4 - Low July 4 

*SUP 2: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3

*SUP 3: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through Tuesday with an

aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key

200-WMA support. Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of

key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls need a close above $1262.7 to

return pressure to $1273.5 where the 100-WMA is noted. Correcting O/S studies

are a concern for bears.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]