-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
6 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Confirms Significance
*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16
*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11
*RES 2: $1.1781 55-DMA
*RES 1: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1687 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1670 Hourly support July 5
*SUP 2: $1.1627 Low July 4
*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2
*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29
*COMMENTARY: The $1.1723 resistance confirmed significance having capped the
break of the 21-DMA ($1.1655) and the bear channel top ($1.1620) off Apr 19
highs. A close above $1.1723 is needed to initially target $1.1781-1.1912. Bears
now look for a close below $1.1589 to return pressure on $1.1506 and below this
level to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1441) & 200 ($1.1393)
WMAs may slow the move.
CABLE TECHS: $1.2995 & $1.3314 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: $1.3415 55-DMA
*RES 3: $1.3314 High June 22
*RES 2: $1.3274 High July 5
*RES 1: $1.3232 Hourly resistance July 5
*PRICE: $1.3216 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3154 Hourly support July 3
*SUP 2: $1.3092 Low July 2
*SUP 3: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28
*SUP 4: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support
*COMMENTARY: The rally from a dip below the 100-WMA ($1.3073) bought bulls
breathing room last Friday with the recovery seeing a pop above the 21-DMA
($1.3241) lack follow through. A close above $1.3314 remains needed to shift
initial focus back to $1.3415-1.3528 where the 55-WMA ($1.3445) & 55-DMA
($1.3415) are noted. Bears dominate while $1.3314 caps and continue to look for
a close below to $1.2995 initially target $1.2770 Aug lows.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key Today
*RES 4: Y112.04 Low Jan 2 now resistance
*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18
*RES 2: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21
*RES 1: Y111.18 High May 22
*PRICE: Y110.66 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.14 200-DMA
*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28
*SUP 3: Y109.88 55-DMA
*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern with Y111.39-112.04 where May highs
are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end bearish
hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.22-44 where the 200-WMA (Y113.22) is
noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a close below the
200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to return pressure to
Y109.01. A close below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.24.
EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: Y131.96 200-DMA
*RES 3: Y131.37 55-WMA, High May 14
*RES 2: Y130.30 100-DMA
*RES 1: Y129.81 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 highs
*PRICE: Y129.32 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.09 Hourly support July 5
*SUP 2: Y128.40 Low July 2
*SUP 3: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support
*SUP 4: Y126.98 Low June 21
*COMMENTARY: Pressure continues to return to Y129.46-130.33 where the 55-DMA,
daily bear channel top and 100-DMA are situated. Bulls continue to look for a
close above the 100-DMA (Y130.30) to initially target Y131.37-132.59 where the
200-DMA (Y131.96) is noted. Bears still need a close below Y128.40 to gain
breathing room and below Y126.22 to confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018
lows.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8868-0.8904 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance
*RES 3: Gbp0.8890 High June 29
*RES 2: Gbp0.8868 High July 2
*RES 1: Gbp0.8857 High July 5
*PRICE: Gbp0.8838 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8801 21-DMA
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA is currently supporting with bears continuing to look
for a close below Gbp0.8779 to confirm breaks of 55 (Gbp0.8781), 100 (Gbp0.8784)
& 21-DMAs and to shift focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715. The bounce from the
21-DMA retains focus on the Gbp0.8868-0.8904 region with a close above shifting
immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger top is noted at Gbp0.8871
and has limited follow through so far this week.
AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7552 To Target 100 & 200-DMAs
*RES 4: $0.7481 - High June 15
*RES 3: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26
*RES 2: $0.7430 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7397 - Hourly support July 4 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7383 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2
*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017
*SUP 4: $0.7263 - Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows Monday added to bearish confidence with
bears targeting $0.7152 Dec 2016 monthly lows, although the weekly bear channel
base ($0.7216) may slow the move. In saying that, bulls need a close above
$0.7443 to gain breathing room and above $0.7552 to confirm a break of the
55-DMA ($0.7504) and shift focus to $0.7619-0.7735 where 100 & 200-DMAs are
situated.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 94.028
*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017
*RES 3: 95.544 - 100-WMA
*RES 2: 95.141 - High July 2
*RES 1: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance
*PRICE: 94.446 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 94.177 - Low July 5
*SUP 2: 94.028 - High June 13 now support
*SUP 3: 93.630 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through this week with
hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close
above the 100-WMA (95.544) to target 96.617. The 94.028 support remains key.
Bears need a close below this level to confirm traction below the 21-DMA
(94.568) and bull channel base (94.658) and to shift initial focus back to
93.193-630 where the 55-DMA is located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Now Key
*RES 4: 2.900 - High June 26
*RES 3: 2.884 - High July 3
*RES 2: 2.866 - High July 5
*RES 1: 2.842 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.838 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.820 - Low July 5
*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a
*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29
*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2
*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are
noted. The Bollinger base (2.807) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern
for bears and limit follow through. Bulls continue now look for a close above
2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 &
100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.18 To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: $75.67 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3
*RES 2: $74.90 - High July 4
*RES 1: $73.66 - Hourly resistance July 5
*PRICE: $72.80 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $72.51 - Low July 2
*SUP 2: $72.18 - Hourly support June 27
*SUP 3: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support
*SUP 4: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs Tuesday remained capped ahead of daily and
weekly bull channel tops. The Bollinger top ($75.85) and very O/B daily studies
remain key concerns for bulls and limit follow through. The close below $73.50
buys bears breathing room. Below $72.18 remains needed to hint at a move back to
$69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add weight to their case.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1262.7-1273.5 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15
*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19
*RES 2: $1273.5 - 100-WMA
*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance
*PRICE: $1253.1 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1250.7 - Low July 4
*SUP 2: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3
*SUP 3: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3
*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through Tuesday with an
aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key
200-WMA ($1233.8). Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of
key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls need a close above $1262.7 to
return pressure to $1273.5 where the 100-WMA is noted. Correcting O/S studies
are a concern for bears.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.