MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

6 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Confirms Significance

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1781 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1687 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1670 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 2: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The $1.1723 resistance confirmed significance having capped the

break of the 21-DMA ($1.1655) and the bear channel top ($1.1620) off Apr 19

highs. A close above $1.1723 is needed to initially target $1.1781-1.1912. Bears

now look for a close below $1.1589 to return pressure on $1.1506 and below this

level to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1441) & 200 ($1.1393)

WMAs may slow the move.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2995 & $1.3314 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $1.3415 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.3314 High June 22 

*RES 2: $1.3274 High July 5 

*RES 1: $1.3232 Hourly resistance July 5

*PRICE: $1.3216 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3154 Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 2: $1.3092 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rally from a dip below the 100-WMA ($1.3073) bought bulls

breathing room last Friday with the recovery seeing a pop above the 21-DMA

($1.3241) lack follow through. A close above $1.3314 remains needed to shift

initial focus back to $1.3415-1.3528 where the 55-WMA ($1.3445) & 55-DMA

($1.3415) are noted. Bears dominate while $1.3314 caps and continue to look for

a close below to $1.2995 initially target $1.2770 Aug lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y112.04 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 

*RES 1: Y111.18 High May 22

*PRICE: Y110.66 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.14 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: Y109.88 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern with Y111.39-112.04 where May highs

are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end bearish

hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.22-44 where the 200-WMA (Y113.22) is

noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a close below the

200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to return pressure to

Y109.01. A close below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.24.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y131.96 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.37 55-WMA, High May 14

*RES 2: Y130.30 100-DMA

*RES 1: Y129.81 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 highs

*PRICE: Y129.32 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.09 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 2: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 4: Y126.98 Low June 21

*COMMENTARY: Pressure continues to return to Y129.46-130.33 where the 55-DMA,

daily bear channel top and 100-DMA are situated. Bulls continue to look for a

close above the 100-DMA (Y130.30) to initially target Y131.37-132.59 where the

200-DMA (Y131.96) is noted. Bears still need a close below Y128.40 to gain

breathing room and below Y126.22 to confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018

lows.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8868-0.8904 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8890 High June 29 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8868 High July 2 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8857 High July 5

*PRICE: Gbp0.8838 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8801 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA is currently supporting with bears continuing to look

for a close below Gbp0.8779 to confirm breaks of 55 (Gbp0.8781), 100 (Gbp0.8784)

& 21-DMAs and to shift focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715. The bounce from the

21-DMA retains focus on the Gbp0.8868-0.8904 region with a close above shifting

immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger top is noted at Gbp0.8871

and has limited follow through so far this week.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7552 To Target 100 & 200-DMAs

*RES 4: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 3: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*RES 2: $0.7430 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7397 - Hourly support July 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7383 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7263 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows Monday added to bearish confidence with

bears targeting $0.7152 Dec 2016 monthly lows, although the weekly bear channel

base ($0.7216) may slow the move. In saying that, bulls need a close above

$0.7443 to gain breathing room and above $0.7552 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA ($0.7504) and shift focus to $0.7619-0.7735 where 100 & 200-DMAs are

situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 94.028

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.544 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.141 - High July 2 

*RES 1: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.446 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.177 - Low July 5

*SUP 2: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 3: 93.630 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through this week with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close

above the 100-WMA (95.544) to target 96.617. The 94.028 support remains key.

Bears need a close below this level to confirm traction below the 21-DMA

(94.568) and bull channel base (94.658) and to shift initial focus back to

93.193-630 where the 55-DMA is located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Now Key

*RES 4: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 3: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 2: 2.866 - High July 5 

*RES 1: 2.842 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.838 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.820 - Low July 5 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted. The Bollinger base (2.807) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern

for bears and limit follow through. Bulls continue now look for a close above

2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 &

100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.18 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $75.67 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3 

*RES 2: $74.90 - High July 4 

*RES 1: $73.66 - Hourly resistance July 5

*PRICE: $72.80 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $72.51 - Low July 2 

*SUP 2: $72.18 - Hourly support June 27 

*SUP 3: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs Tuesday remained capped ahead of daily and

weekly bull channel tops. The Bollinger top ($75.85) and very O/B daily studies

remain key concerns for bulls and limit follow through. The close below $73.50

buys bears breathing room. Below $72.18 remains needed to hint at a move back to

$69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add weight to their case.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1262.7-1273.5 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1273.5 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1253.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1250.7 - Low July 4 

*SUP 2: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 3: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through Tuesday with an

aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key

200-WMA ($1233.8). Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of

key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls need a close above $1262.7 to

return pressure to $1273.5 where the 100-WMA is noted. Correcting O/S studies

are a concern for bears. 

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]