MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1889 Low May 11 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 2: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 1: $1.1774 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1762 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1723 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1670 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 3: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 4: $1.1589 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the $1.1723 resistance took its toll last week with a

break and close above Friday only to pause ahead of the 55-DMA. The

$1.1889-1.1924 region where the 55-WMA ($1.1924) is key this week. Bulls now

need a close above the 55-WMA to shift initial focus to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100

($1.2019) & 200 ($1.1984) DMAs are noted. Bears now need a close below $1.1670

to ease renewed bullish pressure and below $1.1589 to pressure 2018 lows.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3314

*RES 4: $1.3457 55-WMA 

*RES 3: $1.3446 High June 14 

*RES 2: $1.3404 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3325 Hourly resistance July 6

*PRICE: $1.3296 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3297 Hourly resistance July 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3254 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1.3201 Lows July 5 & 6 

*SUP 4: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The rally from a dip below the 100-WMA ($1.3078) bought bulls

breathing room in past weeks but bulls continue to look for a close above

$1.3314 (June 22 high) to confirm focus on $1.3404-1.3528 where the 55-WMA

($1.3457) & 55-DMA ($1.3404) are noted. Bears now need a close below $1.3254 to

gain breathing room and below $1.3201 to return focus to 2018 $1.2995-1.3048

where 2018 lows are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.78 High June 6

*PRICE: Y110.46 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.13 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: Y109.91 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern with Y111.39-112.04 where May highs

are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end bearish

hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.23-44 where the 200-WMA (Y113.23) is

noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a close below the

200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to confirm a break of the

bull channel base (Y110.27) off 2018 lows return pressure to Y109.01. A close

below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.24.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y130.34

*RES 4: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 3: Y130.34 Highs June 13 & 14

*RES 2: Y130.28 100-DMA

*RES 1: Y129.96 High July 6

*PRICE: Y129.90 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.09 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 2: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 4: Y126.98 Low June 21

*COMMENTARY: Last week saw a pop above the daily bear channel top (Y129.67) but

hesitation ahead of the 100-DMA is a concern. Bulls now need a close above

Y130.34 to confirm breaks of 55 (Y129.41) & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top to

shift immediate focus to Y131.37-132.59 where the 200-DMA (Y131.95) is noted.

Bears now need a close below Y129.09 to gain breathing room and below Y128.40 to

shift immediate focus back to Y126.22.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8868-0.8904 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8890 High June 29 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8868 High July 2

*PRICE: Gbp0.8846 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8805 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA is currently supporting with bears continuing to look

for a close below Gbp0.8779 to confirm breaks of 55 (Gbp0.8805), 100 (Gbp0.8784)

& 21-DMAs and to shift focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715. The bounces from the

21-DMA retains focus on the Gbp0.8868-0.8904 region with a close above shifting

immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger top is noted at Gbp0.8875

and has limited follow through last week.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7552 To Target 100 & 200-DMAs

*RES 4: $0.7552 - Weekly Low June 4 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7502 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7481 - High June 15

*PRICE: $0.7460 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7413 - Hourly support July 6 

*SUP 2: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 & 18mth lows last week

with the pair trading at the week's high Friday. Bulls now need a close above

$0.7481 to hint at a move back to $0.7615-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7615) & 200

($0.7693) are located with above $0.7552 confirming. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg higher before O/B is an issue. Bears now need a close

below $0.7413 today to ease pressure on the $0.7481 resistance.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Immediate Focus On 55-DMA

*RES 4: 95.141 - High July 2 

*RES 3: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance 

*RES 2: 94.566 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 94.177 - Low July 5 now resistance

*PRICE: 93.879 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.677 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 3: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 4: 92.246 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through last week with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close

above the 100-WMA (95.522) to target 96.617. The break of 94.028 sees immediate

pressure on the 55-DMA and bears now focused on a break of 92.837 needed to

pressure 100 (91.990) & 200 DMAs. Bulls now need a close above 94.728 to gain

breathing room and return pressure to 95.140-531.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 3: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 2: 2.866 - High July 5 

*RES 1: 2.849 - High July 6

*PRICE: 2.843 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted. The Bollinger base (2.800) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern

for bears and limit follow through. Bulls continue now look for a close above

2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 &

100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.14 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $76.19 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $75.77 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3 

*RES 1: $74.90 - High July 4

*PRICE: $74.13 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $73.31 - Hourly support July 6 

*SUP 2: $72.14 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs Tuesday remained capped ahead of daily and

weekly bull channel tops. Very O/B daily studies remain key concerns for bulls

and limit follow through. Below $72.14 is now needed to hint at a move back to

$69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add weight to their case. While $72.14

supports bulls retain an advantage with focus remaining on bull channel tops.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1262.7-1272.7 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1272.7 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1258.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1250.7 - Low July 4 

*SUP 2: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 3: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through Tuesday with an

aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key

200-WMA ($1234.0). Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of

key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls need a close above $1262.7 to

return pressure to $1272.7 where the 100-WMA is noted. Correcting O/S studies

are a concern for bears.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]