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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
10 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $1.1723
*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16
*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11
*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9
*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9
*PRICE: $1.1746 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1723 Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 2: $1.1670 Hourly support July 5
*SUP 3: $1.1627 Low July 4
*SUP 4: $1.1589 Low July 2
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the 55-DMA to start the
new week is less than ideal for bulls. The $1.1889-1.1924 region where the
55-WMA ($1.1924) is noted is key. Bulls now need a close above the 55-WMA to
shift initial focus to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100 ($1.2013) & 200 ($1.1984) DMAs
are found. Bears now need a close below $1.1723 to ease renewed bullish pressure
and below $1.1589 to pressure 2018 lows.
CABLE TECHS: Aggressively Rejected Ahead Of 55-DMA
*RES 4: $1.3391 55-DMA
*RES 3: $1.3362 High July 9
*RES 2: $1.3325 Hourly support July 9 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3274 Alternating support/resistance
*PRICE: $1.3240 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3231 Hourly resistance July 9 now support
*SUP 2: $1.3188 Low July 9
*SUP 3: $1.3154 Hourly support July 3
*SUP 4: $1.3092 Low July 2
*COMMENTARY: The break of the key $1.3314 resistance lacked follow through with
the move aggressively rejected ahead of the 55-DMA. Layers of resistance
building leave the pair looking a little offered. Bears now need a close below
$1.3188 to reconfirm focus on $1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows are noted. Bulls
now look for a close above the 55-WMA ($1.3456) to shift initial focus to
$1.3586-1.3711 where 100 ($1.3674) & 200 ($1.3586) DMAs are located.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA Support Remains Key
*RES 4: Y112.04 Low Jan 2 now resistance
*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18
*RES 2: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21
*RES 1: Y111.18 High May 22
*PRICE: Y111.07 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.78 High July 6 now support
*SUP 2: Y110.12 200-DMA
*SUP 3: Y109.95 Low June 28, 55-DMA
*SUP 4: Y109.35 Low June 25
*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation is a concern with Y111.39-112.04 where
May highs are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end
bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.24-44 where the 200-WMA
(Y113.24) is noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a
close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to confirm a
break of the bull channel base (Y110.35) off 2018 lows and return pressure to
Y109.01. A close below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.46.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y130.34
*RES 4: Y131.94 200-DMA
*RES 3: Y131.48 55-WMA
*RES 2: Y131.37 High May 14
*RES 1: Y130.55 Bollinger band top
*PRICE: Y130.48 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9
*SUP 2: Y129.37 55-DMA
*SUP 3: Y129.09 Hourly support July 5
*SUP 4: Y128.40 Low July 2
*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to layers of resistance has taken its toll with
the pair breaking above the 100-DMA (Y130.27) and Y130.34 resistance. Bulls
still need a close above Y130.34 to confirm traction and initial focus on
Y131.37-94 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are located. Daily studies at O/B levels
are the key concern for bulls. Bears now look for a close below Y129.83 to gain
breathing room and below the 55-DMA to shift immediate pressure back to Y128.40.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8849
*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28
*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7
*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance
*RES 1: Gbp0.8876 Hourly support July 9 now resistance
*PRICE: Gbp0.8873 @ 0930GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8849 Hourly resistance July 9 now support
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8809 21-DMA
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA continues to support and provided the base for a rally
that stalled just short of the Gbp0.8904 resistance. Bulls need a close above
this level to shift immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger top
is noted at Gbp0.8887 and continues to limit follow through. Initial support is
noted at Gbp0.8849 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room.
Below Gbp0.8779 is needed to confirm breaks of 55 (Gbp0.8785), 100 (Gbp0.8785) &
21-DMAs and to shift focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.
AUSSIE TECHS: Below 21-DMA To Ease Bullish Pressure
*RES 4: $0.7552 - Weekly Low June 4 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7500 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7483 - High July 9
*PRICE: $0.7473 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7444 - High July 6 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7420 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support
*SUP 4: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 & 18mth lows last week
with the pair trading at the week's high Friday. Bulls now need a close above
the 55-DMA to hint at a move back to $0.7611-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7611) & 200
($0.7692) are located with above $0.7552 confirming. Daily studies still have
room to move before O/B is an issue. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to
ease bullish pressure and return focus to 2018 lows.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Supporting For Now
*RES 4: 95.141 - High July 2
*RES 3: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance
*RES 2: 94.598 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: 94.206 - High July 9
*PRICE: 94.090 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 93.740 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 93.193 - Low June 14
*SUP 3: 92.837 - High May 11 now support
*SUP 4: 92.249 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through last week with
hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close
above the 100-WMA (95.523) to target 96.617. The break of 94.028 sees immediate
pressure on the 55-DMA and bears now focused on a break of 93.193 needed to
pressure 100 (92.035) & 200 DMAs. Bulls now need a close above 94.728 to gain
breathing room and return pressure to 95.140-531.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 2.950 - High June 21
*RES 3: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21
*RES 2: 2.900 - High June 26
*RES 1: 2.884 - High July 3
*PRICE: 2.866 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.847 - Hourly support July 9
*SUP 2: 2.838 - Hourly support July 9a
*SUP 3: 2.807 - Low July 6
*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a
*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are
noted. The Bollinger base (2.800) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern
for bears and limit follow through. Bulls continue to look for a close above
2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 &
100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.14 To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: $75.86 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3
*RES 2: $74.90 - High July 4
*RES 1: $74.28 - High July 9
*PRICE: $74.01 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $72.99 - Low July 9
*SUP 2: $72.14 - Low July 6
*SUP 3: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support
*SUP 4: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs last Tuesday remained capped ahead of daily
and weekly bull channel tops. Very O/B daily studies remain key concerns for
bulls and limit follow through. Below $72.14 is now needed to hint at a move
back to $69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add weight to their case.
While $72.14 supports bulls retain an advantage with focus remaining on bull
channel tops $75.86-76.32.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Rejected Ahead Of 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15
*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19
*RES 2: $1272.7 - 100-WMA
*RES 1: $1265.9 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1260.0 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1257.0 - Hourly breakout level July 9
*SUP 2: $1250.7 - Low July 4
*SUP 3: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3
*SUP 4: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through Tuesday with an
aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key
200-WMA ($1234.0). Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of
key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls now need a close above the
21-DMA to return initial focus to $1272.7 where the 100-WMA is noted and above
the 100-WMA to target $1284.0-1292.1.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.