MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Gains Deemed Corrective

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – S/T Equity Gains Considered Corrective

• Short-term gains in S&P E-Minis are - for now - considered corrective and the 50-day EMA marks a firm resistance, at 5453.59. Clearance of this average is required to alter the picture and signal scope for stronger gains. A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the latest climb appears to be a correction - for now. The sell-off between Aug 1 - 5, reinforces the bearish condition.
• GBPUSD is trading higher today and this has resulted in a print above resistance around the 20-day EMA, at 1.2798. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term retracement and open 1.2863 initially, the Aug 1 high. USDJPY remains bearish and the recent impulsive sell-off has strengthened the trend condition. The move down signals scope for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, Dec 28 ‘23 low. A bearish theme is AUDUSD remains intact. However, from a short-term perspective, a corrective cycle is in play and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price is through the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 0.6613.       
• Recent weakness in Gold appears to be corrective and the trend structure remains bullish. Note that the yellow metal has recently managed to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - currently at $2383.4. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. WTI futures rallied sharply higher Monday. The move undermines a recent bearish theme and price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $80.77, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Bund futures are unchanged and in consolidation mode. A bull cycle is in play and recent gains reinforce the trend condition. 133.21, Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Recent gains in Gilt futures confirmed a confirmation of the uptrend that started May 29. A fresh high on Aug 5 reinforces current conditions. Note that 99.23, the Jun 21 peak, has been cleared. Scope is seen for a climb towards 101.78, a Fibonacci projection point.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North 

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 29 ‘ 23 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1084  High Dec 29
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.1012 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Apr 16 downleg
• PRICE: 1.0937 @ 16:29 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 1.0881 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0844 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3 

EURUSD is trading above last Thursday’s low. A bull theme remains intact following recent gains and the breach of a key short-term resistance at 1.0948, Jul 17 high. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.1012 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a rising trend. A pullback would be considered corrective. Initial support to watch lies at 1.0881, the 20-day EMA.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends    

• RES 4: 1.3044 High Jul 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 1.2968 High Jul 19 
• RES 2: 1.2863/2938 High Aug 1 / High Jul 24
• RES 1: 1.2798/1.2810 20-day EMA / Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2805 @ 07:59 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1:1.2665 Low Aug 8 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2584 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2510 Low May 14 

GBPUSD is trading higher today and this has resulted in a print above resistance around the 20-day EMA, at 1.2798. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term retracement and open 1.2863 initially, the Aug 1 high. Current gains are considered corrective, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the recent Aug low of 1.2665. A break of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Jul 17.           

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28    
• RES 3: 0.8677 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 ‘23 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8625 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 0.8561 @ 06:16 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 0.8517 Low Aug 5  
• SUP 2: 0.8502 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8486 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 0.8418 Low Aug 1

EURGBP maintains a firmer tone despite the latest pullback - a correction. Recent impulsive gains resulted in the break of a number of key resistance points, cancelling a bearish theme and highlighting potential for 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8486, the 50-day EMA. First support is 0.8544, the Aug 12 low. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought condition to unwind.    

USDJPY TECHS: Oversold Condition Unwinds     

• RES 4: 153.93 50-day EMA   
• RES 3: 150.73 20-day EMA  
• RES 2: 149.77 High Aug 2    
• RES 1: 148.22 High Aug 12   
• PRICE: 147.74 @ 06:37 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 144.29 Low Aug 7    
• SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28   

USDJPY remains bearish and the recent impulsive sell-off has strengthened the trend condition. The move down signals scope for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, Dec 28 ‘23 low. Note that the bear cycle remains in an extreme oversold condition, and the latest recovery - a correction - is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 150.73, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 141.70, the Aug 5 low.  

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play        

• RES 4: 166.90 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 163.98 20-day EMA    
• RES 2: 162.89 High Aug 1       
• RES 1: 161.95 High Aug 12
• PRICE: 161.63 @ 06:51 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23 
• SUP 3: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 ‘23

EURJPY traded sharply lower recently marking an extension of the current impulsive bear cycle. The move down signals scope for an extension towards the next key support at 153.23, the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A break of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the cross is in an extreme oversold position. A continuation of the latest recovery - a correction - would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is 163.98, the 20-day EMA.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA  

• RES 4: 0.6744 High Jul 18     
• RES 3: 0.6693 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg                 
• RES 2: 0.6646 High Jul 23  
• RES 1: 0.6613 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance point   
• PRICE: 0.6591 @ 07:02 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 0.6472/6350 Low Aug 6 / 5 
• SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23   
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23   
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support  

A bearish theme is AUDUSD remains intact. However, from a short-term perspective, a corrective cycle is in play and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price is through the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 0.6613. A clear break of this average would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for stronger gains. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on the Aug 5 low and bear trigger, at 0.6350.     

USDCAD TECHS: Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 1.4048 High May 22 2020 
• RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022   
• RES 1: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.3734 @ 08:14 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 1.3731/18 50-day EMA / Low Aug 9 
• SUP 2: 1.3657 Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: 1.3589 Low Jun 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3547 Low Apr 9 

Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. Near-term, the pair has pulled back from the Aug 5 high. A move lower appears to be a correction and is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The 50-day EMA, at 1.3732, has been pierced. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.3657, the Jul 17 low. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 1.3946, the Aug 5 high.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Structure Remains Bullish  

• RES 4: 137.26 3.50 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing         
• RES 3: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 2: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 134.84/136.28 High Aug 7 / 5 and the bull trigger                      
• PRICE: 134.56 @ 05:34 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 133.77 Low Aug 1           
• SUP 2: 133.61 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 132.73/131.62 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 131.39 Low Jul 15  

Bund futures are unchanged and in consolidation mode. A bull cycle is in play and recent gains reinforce the trend condition. 133.21, Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. Sights are on 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. The contract remains below the Aug 5 high, a pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support is 133.61, 20-day EMA.    

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Corrective Pullback                                           

• RES 4: 120.000 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing  
• RES 2: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing      
• RES 1: 118.530/119.090 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger                
• PRICE: 117.990 @ 05:43 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 117.471 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 116.972/116.320 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22   
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11 
• SUP 4: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support

The uptrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the pullback from the Aug 5 high appears to be a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at the Jun 14 high of 117.160. This break, together with the subsequent impulsive rally, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 119.234, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 117.471, the 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Monitoring Support At The 20-Day EMA  

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 1: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 106.295 @ 05:52 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 106.094 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.878/893 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22  
• SUP 3: 105.495 Low Jul 11 
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support 

An uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The contract recently traded through 105.975, the Jun 14 high and the clear break of this hurdle confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 24. Sights are on 106.916, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at 106.075, the 20-day EMA, and 106.094, the Jul 22 low. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would be seen as an early bearish development.                       

GILT TECHS: (U4) Remains Above Support At The 20-Day EMA                                          

• RES 4: 102.15 2.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 102.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 101.78 2.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 100.43/101.46 High Aug 6 / 5  
• PRICE: 99.72 @ Close Aug 12 
• SUP 1: 99.16 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 98.54/97.46 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 96.96 Low Jul 3 
• SUP 4: 96.57 Low Jul 1

Recent gains in Gilt futures confirmed a confirmation of the uptrend that started May 29. A fresh high on Aug 5 reinforces current conditions. Note that 99.23, the Jun 21 peak, has been cleared. Scope is seen for a climb towards 101.78, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial key support lies at 99.16, the 20-day EMA. The latest pullback appears to be a correction, allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind.     

BTP TECHS: (U4) Moving Average Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 120.85 2.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.00 Psychological round number 
• RES 1: 119.57 High Aug 2  
• PRICE: 119.05 @ Close Aug 12
• SUP 1: 118.42/117.74 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

The medium-term trend in BTP futures remains bullish with the contract holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 120.00 handle next. The contract remains above initial firm support at 118.42 the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 117.74. A clear break of both EMAs would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal. For now, a pullback appears corrective.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Gains Considered Corrective       

• RES 4: 4951.00 High Jul 31  
• RES 3: 4879.91 50-day EMA        
• RES 2: 4784.42 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 4724.00 High Aug 9    
• PRICE: 4702.00 @ 06:16 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 4494.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont) 
• SUP 4: 4502.00 Low Jan 24 (cont)

A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the latest climb appears to be a correction - for now. The sell-off between Aug 1 - 5, reinforces the bearish condition. A key support at 4846.00, the Apr 19 low, has been cleared. This highlights a stronger reversal and opens 4478.81 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 4879.91, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is 4784.42, the 20-day EMA.            

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Corrective Cycle      

• RES 4: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance   
• RES 3: 5600.75 High Aug 1 
• RES 2: 5453.59 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 53896.75 High Aug 12   
• PRICE: 5381.50 @ 07:23 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 5182.0/5120.00 Low Aug 8 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 5185 50.76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bull leg
• SUP 3: 5092.00 Low May 2  
• SUP 4: 5020 Low Apr 19 and a key support

Short-term gains in S&P E-Minis are - for now - considered corrective and the 50-day EMA marks a firm resistance, at 5453.59. Clearance of this average is required to alter the picture and signal scope for stronger gains. The contracttraded lower on Aug 5 and this confirmed an extension of the bear cycle. The move down resulted in a print below 5185.50, 76.4% of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bear leg. A clear break of this level would open 5092.00 next, the May 2 low.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Strong Reversal  

• RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $84.22 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low 
• RES 1: $82.40 - High Aug 12    
• PRICE: $81.66 @ 07:05 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $78.77 - Low Aug 9  
• SUP 2: $75.05/74.96 - Low Aug 5 and a key support / Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing   

A strong rally in Brent futures Monday highlights a possible short-term reversal and undermines the recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would strengthen a bullish theme and open $84.22, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the key short-term support at $75.05, the Aug5 low.   

WTI TECHS: (U4) Clears Both The 20- And 50-Day EMAs  

• RES 4: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $83.58 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $82.27 - High Jul 18  
• RES 1: $80.77 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low    
• PRICE: $79.55 @ 07:17 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $74.60/71.67 - Low Aug 8 / 5 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $70.73 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $67.37 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing 

WTI futures rallied sharply higher Monday. The move undermines a recent bearish theme and price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $80.77, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open $83.58, the Jul 5 high. On the downside, a return to bearish price action would expose key support at $71.67, the Aug 5 low.   

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger 

• RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $2483.7 - High Jul 17 and the bull trigger                  
• PRICE: $2462.6 @ 07:18 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $2353.2 - Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support 
• SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1

Recent weakness in Gold appears to be corrective and the trend structure remains bullish. Note that the yellow metal has recently managed to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - currently at $2383.4. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4, May 3 low and a key support. For bulls, attention is on $2483.7, the Jul 17 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.      

SILVER TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg        
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $28.872/31.754 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 11                
• PRICE: $27.749 @ 08:17 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $26.451- Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27 
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28 

A bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and recent weakness reinforces current conditions. The metal last week traded to a fresh short-term cycle low and this has exposed the next key support at $26.018, the May 2 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $28.872, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible reversal.