MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

17 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 55-DMA Capping

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 1: $1.1728 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1717 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1673 Low July 16 

*SUP 2: $1.1649 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1.1610 Low July 13 

*SUP 4: $1.1589 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1728) was lacking last week and

resulted in a dip back towards the $1.1589 support. Bears now need a close below

this level to initially pressure 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to

confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1451) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls

now need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA, easing

bearish pressure, and above the 55-WMA ($1.1928) to shift initial focus to

$1.1983-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1983) & 200 ($1.1983) DMAs are found.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3195

*RES 4: $1.3446 High June 14 

*RES 3: $1.3362 High July 9 

*RES 2: $1.3339 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3300 High July 10

*PRICE: $1.3248 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3195 Hourly support July 13 

*SUP 2: $1.3144 Hourly resistance July 13 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3092 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.3079 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The close above $1.3190 bought bulls breathing room but the $1.3362

resistance remains key. A close above $1.3362 remains needed to confirm a break

of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to the 55-WMA ($1.3460). The recovery from

ahead of the $1.3092 support is a concern for bears who are focused on

$1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows are noted. Bears now need a close below $1.3195

to ease pressure on resistance layers and below $1.2995 to target $1.2587 June

2017 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y111.86

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.33 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 

*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs provided the base for continued

fresh 7mth highs last week with initial bullish focus on the Y113.24-74 region

where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. O/B daily studies and the

Bollinger top (Y112.60) are the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Bears now need a close below Y111.86 to ease bullish pressure

and below Y111.35 to shift focus back to Y109.95-110.85 where key DMAs and the

bull channel base (Y110.73) off 2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA

*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24

*RES 3: Y132.05 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y131.91 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.75 Hourly resistance July 17

*PRICE: Y131.66 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.38 Hourly support July 16 

*SUP 2: Y131.06 Hourly support July 13 

*SUP 3: Y130.64 Low July 12 

*SUP 4: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-WMA (Y131.55). Bulls

continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-WMA

and target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. O/B daily

studies looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.05) limiting follow

through are key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y131.38 to gain

breathing room and below Y130.64 to shift initial focus back to Y129.83. Below

Y129.83 hints at a move back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.28) to

confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8779 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8876 Hourly support July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8844 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8814 Low July 16 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: The marginal dip below the 21 (Gbp0.8825) & 200 (Gbp0.8818) DMAs

lacked follow through Monday with bulls taking comfort in the bounce. In saying

that, bulls still need a close above Gbp0.8904 to shift immediate focus to

Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger top is noted at Gbp0.8877 and recently

limited follow through. The Gbp0.8779 support remains key. Below Gbp0.8779 is

needed to confirm breaks of 55 (Gbp0.8792) & 100 (Gbp0.8786), shifting focus

back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7487 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 1: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7432 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7397 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7357 - Low July 12 

*SUP 3: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room and below $0.7308 to shift focus to tests of $0.7142 2017 lows.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance have

followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close

above $0.7459 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a move back

to $0.7590-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7590) & 200 ($0.7682) DMAs are located with

above $0.7552 confirming.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.713 Support Key

*RES 4: 95.530 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 95.241 - High July 13 

*RES 2: 95.067 - Hourly support July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 94.774 - High July 16

*PRICE: 94.511 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.181 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 2: 94.018 - Low July 10

*SUP 3: 94.010 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.713 - Low July 9

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through in past weeks with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from

the 55-DMA last week but continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.530)

to target 96.617. Bears now look for a close below 93.713 to confirm traction

below the 55-DMA and bull channel base, initial focus on 92.837-93.193 and hint

at a move back to 100 (92.270) & 200 (92.274) DMAs.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.877 - High July 16

*PRICE: 2.866 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.823 - Low July 16 

*SUP 2: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted with a close below 2.807 to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base

(2.808) remains key concern for bears and limits follow through. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to

confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance

region.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $69.78 - High July 16 

*RES 3: $69.13 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $68.42 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $68.09 - Low July 12 now resistance

*PRICE: $67.16 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $66.70 - Low July 16 

*SUP 2: $65.93 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $64.47 - Daily Bull channel base off Feb 14 low 

*SUP 4: $63.88 - Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation has again taken its toll with the correction

from last week's lows stalling ahead of the $71.13 resistance. The sell-off

Monday sees immediate focus back on the 100-DMA and overall focus return to the

June monthly low. Daily studies have a room to move before O/S is an issue.

Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $71.13

to shift initial focus back to $72.08-98.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1271.5 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1260.2 - High July 10 

*RES 2: $1254.2 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1240.7 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1236.6 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 2: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1234.0 - 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking

offered and bears have not been disappointed with gold flirting with the LT

rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below

the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5.

Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an issue. Bulls need a close above

$1260.2 to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to $1271.5-1272.6

where the 100-WMA is noted. Above $1272.6 remains needed to initially target

$1283.4-1292.1 where the bear channel top off Apr highs and the 55-DMA ($1283.4)

are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]