MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Fails At 55-DMA Hurdle Once More

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 1: $1.1744 High July 17

*PRICE: $1.1647 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1610 Low July 13 

*SUP 2: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $1.1554 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1722) remains lacking and sees

immediate pressure back on the $1.1589 support. Bears need a close below this

level to confirm focus on retests of 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to

confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1450) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls

need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA, easing bearish

pressure, and above the 55-WMA ($1.1927) to shift initial focus to

$1.1977-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1977) & 200 ($1.1982) DMAs are found.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2995 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.3328 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 2: $1.3198 Hourly resistance July 17a 

*RES 1: $1.3125 Hourly resistance July 17

*PRICE: $1.3109 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3069 Low July 17 

*SUP 2: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2849 Low Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble the 55-DMA and the key $1.3662 resistance

resulted in a sharp sell-off Tuesday that sees immediate pressure back on

$1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows are noted. Bears continue to look for a close

below $1.2995 to target $1.2587 June 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are

building and weighing. Bulls now need a close above $1.3193 to gain breathing

room. A close above the key $1.3362 resistance remains needed to confirm a break

of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to $1.3446.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y112.17

*RES 4: Y114.72 Monthly High Nov 6 

*RES 3: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 1: Y113.26 200-WMA

*PRICE: Y112.95 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.55 High July 16 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7mth highs continue with bulls currently focused on the

Y113.24-74 region where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. O/B daily

studies and the Bollinger top (Y113.01) are the key concern for bulls with

potential to limit follow through. Bears now need a close below Y112.17 to ease

bullish pressure and below Y111.35 to shift focus back to Y109.95-111.01 where

key DMAs and the bull channel base (Y110.81) off 2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-DMA Capping

*RES 4: Y133.48 Monthly High Apr 24

*RES 3: Y132.59 Low Apr 24 now resistance

*RES 2: Y132.31 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y131.91 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.59 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.38 Hourly support July 16 

*SUP 2: Y131.06 Hourly support July 13 

*SUP 3: Y130.64 Low July 12 

*SUP 4: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-WMA (Y131.55). Bulls

continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-WMA

and target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. O/B daily

studies looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.31) limiting follow

through are key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y131.38 to gain

breathing room and below Y130.64 to shift initial focus back to Y129.83. Below

Y129.83 hints at a move back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.29) to

confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8915 High July 17 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8897 Hourly resistance July 18

*PRICE: Gbp0.8887 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8858 Hourly support July 17 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support July 16 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8814 Low July 16 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8794 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The marginal dip below the 21 (Gbp0.8825) & 200 (Gbp0.8818) DMAs

lacked follow through Monday with bulls taking comfort in the bounce which

resulted in fresh 4mth highs. Follow through has been lacking courtesy of the

Bollinger top (Gbp0.8893) although daily studies are well placed for gains.

Bears now need a close below Gbp0.8858 to gain breathing room and below

Gbp0.8838 to shift focus back to the key Gbp0.8779-0.8814 support region where

55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7308 To Target $0.7142

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10, 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7442 - High July 16

*PRICE: $0.7384 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7357 - Low July 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 21-DMA ($0.7396) sees bears gain breathing room

with below $0.7308 still needed to shift focus to tests of $0.7142 2017 lows.

Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance

have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence. Bulls still need a

close above $0.7459 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a

move back to $0.7586-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7586) & 200 ($0.7680) DMAs are located

with above $0.7552 confirming.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Supported Around Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: 95.535 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 95.241 - High July 13 

*RES 2: 95.067 - Hourly support July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 94.774 - High July 16

*PRICE: 95.033 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.774 - High July 16 now support

*SUP 2: 94.257 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 3: 94.062 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.713 - Low July 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

daily bull channel base with focus remaining on the 95.241-535 resistance region

where the key 100-WMA resistance is noted. Bulls continue to look for a close

above the 100-WMA (95.535) to target 96.617. Bears now look for a close below

the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below 93.713 to confirm traction below the

55-DMA and bull channel base, initial focus on 92.837-93.193, and hint at a move

back to 100 (92.318) & 200 (92.284) DMAs.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 2.847 Today

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.877 - High July 16

*PRICE: 2.873 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.847 - Low July 17 

*SUP 2: 2.823 - Low July 16 

*SUP 3: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading continues with bears now needing a close below

2.807 to reconfirm focus on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. Narrowing

Bollinger bands are hinting at a breakout. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 &

100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region. Bears now need a

close below 2.847 to gain breathing room.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Immediate Pressure On 100-DMA

*RES 4: $69.21 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $68.40 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $68.09 - Low July 12 now resistance 

*RES 1: $67.61 - High July 17

*PRICE: $66.94 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $65.98 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $64.55 - Daily Bull channel base off Feb 14 low 

*SUP 3: $64.08 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $63.88 - Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation took its toll with the correction from last

week's lows stalling ahead of the $71.13 resistance. The sell-off Monday sees

immediate focus back on the 100-DMA and overall focus return to the June monthly

low ($62.99). Daily studies approaching O/S is a concern for bears. Bulls need a

close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to shift

initial focus to $71.13.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Gaining Traction Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1251.3 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1234.0 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1227.4 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1224.1 - Daily bear channel base 

*SUP 2: $1214.0 - Low July 12 2017 

*SUP 3: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 

*SUP 4: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017

*COMMENTARY: Flirtation with the LT rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and

pressure on the 200-WMA have taken their toll with gold now gaining traction

below the 200-WMA and bears focused on $1204.6 July 2017 lows. The Bollinger

base ($1228.6) is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow

through. Bulls now need a close above $1236.6 to gain breathing room and above

$1260.2 to return initial focus to $1271.4-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]