MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $1.1589

*RES 4: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 3: $1.1744 High July 17

*RES 2: $1.1716 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1675 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.1652 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 2: $1.1562 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low 

*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1716) remains lacking and sees

immediate pressure back on the $1.1589 support. Bears need a close below this

level to confirm a break of the bull channel base and focus on retests of 2018

lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1450) & 200

($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to confirm

traction above the 55-DMA, easing bearish pressure, and above the 55-WMA

($1.1927) to shift initial focus to $1.1971-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1971) & 200

($1.1981) DMAs are found.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2995 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 3: $1.3198 Hourly resistance July 17a 

*RES 2: $1.3125 Hourly resistance July 17 

*RES 1: $1.3083 Hourly resistance July 18 & 19

*PRICE: $1.3079 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2849 Low Aug 31 

*SUP 3: $1.2777 Monthly Low Aug 24 

*SUP 4: $1.2587 Monthly Low June 21 2017

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble the 55-DMA ($1.3318) and the key $1.3662

resistance resulted in a sharp sell-off Tuesday that sees immediate pressure

back on $1.2995 having made fresh 2018 & 11mth lows Wednesday. Bears continue to

look for a close below $1.2995 to target $1.2587 June 2017 lows. Layers of

resistance are building and weighing. Bulls need a close above $1.3125 to gain

breathing room. A close above the key $1.3362 resistance remains needed to

confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to $1.3446.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y112.17

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.90 Hourly resistance July 18

*PRICE: Y112.68 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.55 High July 16 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7mth highs continue with bulls currently focused on the

Y113.24-74 region where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located, although the

lack of follow through is less than ideal given O/B daily studies and the

Bollinger top (Y113.23) currently limiting follow through. Bears now need a

close below Y112.17 to ease bullish pressure and below Y111.35 to shift focus

back to Y109.95-111.12 where key DMAs and the bull channel base (Y110.88) off

2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-DMA Capping

*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24 now resistance

*RES 3: Y132.40 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y131.90 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.77 Hourly resistance July 18

*PRICE: Y131.31 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.14 Hourly resistance July 18 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.64 Low July 12 

*SUP 3: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y130.27 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-WMA (Y131.54). Bulls

continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-WMA

and target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. O/B daily

studies looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.40) limiting follow

through are key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y130.64 to

shift initial focus back to Y129.83. Below Y129.83 hints at a move back to

Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.29) to confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 2018 Highs In The Sights 

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8931 High July 18

*PRICE: Gbp0.8912 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8896 Hourly support July 18 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8872 Low July 18 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support July 16 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8814 Low July 16

*COMMENTARY: The marginal dip below the 21 (Gbp0.8838) & 200 (Gbp0.8818) DMAs

lacked follow through Monday with bulls taking comfort in the bounce which

resulted in continued fresh 4mth highs. Immediate focus is now on the Gbp0.8967

2018 high. Bulls look for a close above 2018 highs to initially target Gbp0.9043

Sept 14 highs. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.8872 to shift focus back to

Gbp0.8779-0.8838 where key DMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Support Emerging Ahead Of 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7442 - High July 16

*PRICE: $0.7424 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7391 - Hourly support July 18 

*SUP 2: $0.7331 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Wednesday's low and support emerging

ahead of 2018 lows is less than ideal for bears. In saying that, daily studies

remain well placed for a fresh leg lower with a close below $0.7308 still needed

to shift focus to tests of $0.7142 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close above

$0.7459 to gain breathing room and above $0.7484 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA ($0.7483) and hint at a move back to $0.7583-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7583) &

200 ($0.7678) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 100-WMA Resistance Key

*RES 4: 97.045 - Low June 19 2017 now resistance 

*RES 3: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 2: 95.536 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: 95.407 - High July 18

*PRICE: 95.006 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.774 - High July 16 now support

*SUP 2: 94.257 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 3: 94.112 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.713 - Low July 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

daily bull channel base with focus remaining on the 95.536 resistance region

where the key 100-WMA is noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above the

100-WMA (95.536) to target 96.617. Bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA

to gain breathing room and below 93.713 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and

bull channel base, initial focus on 92.837-93.193, and hint at a move back to

100 (92.367) & 200 (92.295) DMAs.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 2.847

*RES 4: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 2: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 1: 2.894 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: 2.889 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.884 - High July 3 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.847 - Low July 17 

*SUP 3: 2.823 - Low July 16 

*SUP 4: 2.807 - Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of 2.807 has provided the base for a move

that sees bulls looking for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above

2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050

resistance region. Immediate pressure is now on the 100-DMA. Bears now look for

a close below 2.847 to reconfirm pressure on 2.807 and maintain focus on

2.717-759.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) 55 & 21-DMAs Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 3: $69.40 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $68.44 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $68.09 - Low July 12 now resistance

*PRICE: $67.76 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $67.21 - Hourly support July 18 

*SUP 2: $66.05 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $65.89 - High June 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $64.63 - Daily Bull channel base off Feb 14 low

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation took its toll with the correction from last

week's lows stalling ahead of the $71.13 resistance. The sell-off Monday sees

immediate focus back on the 100-DMA and overall focus return to the June monthly

low ($62.99). Daily studies correcting from O/S are a concern for bears. Bulls

need a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to

shift initial focus to $71.13.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1233.9 - 200-WMA 

*RES 1: $1229.2 - High July 18

*PRICE: $1225.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1214.0 - Low July 12 2017 

*SUP 2: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 

*SUP 3: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017 

*SUP 4: $1180.7 - Weekly Low Jan 27 2017

*COMMENTARY: Flirtation with the LT rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and

pressure on the 200-WMA have taken their toll with gold gaining traction below

the 200-WMA and bears focused on $1204.6 July 2017 lows. The Bollinger base

($1224.6) is the key concern for bears and currently limits follow through.

Bulls now need a close above $1236.6 to gain breathing room and above $1260.2 to

return initial focus to $1271.4-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]