MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

20 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Downside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 3: $1.1744 High July 17

*RES 2: $1.1710 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1678 High July 19

*PRICE: $1.1650 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1572 Low July 19 

*SUP 2: $1.1562 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low 

*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of $1.1589 is less than

ideal for bears with the Bollinger base noted at $1.1569 and remaining the key

concern. Bears now need a close below $1.1562 to confirm a break of the weekly

bull channel base and initially pressure 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed

to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1450) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819.

Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and ease

bearish pressure. Above the 55-WMA ($1.1927) remains needed to shift initial

focus to $1.1964-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1964) & 200 ($1.1980) DMAs are found.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3125 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 3: $1.3198 Hourly resistance July 17a 

*RES 2: $1.3125 Hourly resistance July 17 

*RES 1: $1.3083 Hourly resistance July 18 & 19

*PRICE: $1.3021 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2955 2018 Low July 19 

*SUP 2: $1.2849 Low Aug 31 

*SUP 3: $1.2777 Monthly Low Aug 24 

*SUP 4: $1.2587 Monthly Low June 21 2017

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble the 55-DMA ($1.3307) and the key $1.3662

resistance resulted in a sharp sell-off Tuesday followed up by a break of the

key $1.2995 support and fresh 2018 & 11mth lows continuing. Bears now focus on

$1.2587 June 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are building and weighing. Bulls

need a close above $1.3125 to gain breathing room. A close above the key $1.3362

resistance remains needed to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial

focus to $1.3446.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bearish Key Day Reversal, Capped Ahead Of 200-WMA

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.69 Low July 18 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.33 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 

*SUP 4: Y111.23 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7mth highs have lacked follow through with a bearish key day

reversal combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and daily momentum

divergence adding weight to the case for a correction back to 110.75. A close

below Y110.75 is needed to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bull channel base

(Y110.96) pressure the Y108.92-110.40 region where key DMAs are noted. Bulls now

need a close above Y112.69 to return pressure to Y113.24-74 where the 200-WMA,

2018 & Dec highs are located. The Bollinger top is noted at Y113.28 and

currently limits follow through.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y130.58

*RES 4: Y132.35 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Y131.89 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.77 Hourly resistance July 18

*RES 1: Y131.49 Hourly resistance July 18

*PRICE: Y130.86 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.58 Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 2: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y130.27 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9

*COMMENTARY: The pair has failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y131.54).

Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the

55-WMA and target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. O/B

daily studies looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.40) are key

concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y130.58 to shift initial focus

back to Y129.83. Below Y129.83 hints at a move back to Y128.40 with below the

55-DMA (Y129.29) to confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 2018 Highs In The Sights 

*RES 4: Gbp0.9043 High Sept 14 

*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 High Nov 15 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7

*PRICE: Gbp0.8945 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8940 Hourly support July 19 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8896 Hourly support July 18 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8872 Low July 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support July 16

*COMMENTARY: The marginal dip below the 21 (Gbp0.8848) & 200 (Gbp0.8818) DMAs

lacked follow through Monday with bulls taking comfort in the bounce which

continues to result in fresh 4mth highs. Immediate focus is now on the Gbp0.8967

2018 high. Bulls look for a close above 2018 highs to initially target Gbp0.9043

Sept 14 highs. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.8872 to shift focus back to

Gbp0.8779-0.8818 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7308

*RES 4: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 3: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7442 - High July 16

*RES 1: $0.7391 - Hourly support July 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7353 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7323 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of the $0.7442-59 resistance region

ensures focus remains on 2018 lows. Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh

leg lower with a close below $0.7308 still needed to shift focus to tests of

$0.7142 2017 lows. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7459 to gain

breathing room. A close above $0.7484 remains needed to confirm a break of the

55-DMA ($0.7478) and hint at a move back to $0.7578-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7578) &

200 ($0.7675) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 97.045 - Low June 19 2017 now resistance 

*RES 3: 96.652 - 2018 High July 19 

*RES 2: 95.537 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: 95.422 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 95.115 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.774 - High July 16 now support

*SUP 2: 94.409 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 3: 94.161 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.713 - Low July 9

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 13mth highs lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger top Thursday which sees pressure back on 94.161-774 where the 55-DMA

and daily bull channel base off Apr lows is noted. Bears now look for a close

below 94.774 to gain breathing room and below 93.713 to confirm traction below

the 55-DMA and bull channel base, initial focus on 92.837-93.193, and hint at a

move back to 100 (92.420) & 200 (92.306) DMAs. Bulls continue to look for a

close above the 100-WMA (95.537) to target 96.617.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.807 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.922 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 2.894 - High July 19 

*RES 2: 2.871 - Hourly support July 19 now resistance (A) 

*RES 1: 2.855 - Hourly support July 19 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.849 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.823 - Low July 16 

*SUP 2: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Bullish pressure managed a pop above the 2.884 resistance and

100-DMA (2.894) before being aggressively rejected ahead of the 55-DMA. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and

pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region. Bears still need a close below

2.807 to reconfirm focus on 2.717-759. Daily studies are well place for a fresh

leg lower with narrowing Bollinger bands suggesting a breakout.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 2: $69.56 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $68.79 - High July 19

*PRICE: $68.13 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $67.21 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $66.12 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $65.89 - High June 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $64.70 - Daily Bull channel base off Feb 14 low

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the

$65.89 support. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to $70.60-71.13. Daily studies correcting from O/S add support to the

bullish case. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on the $65.89-66.12

supports with a close below $67.21 now needed to buy bears breathing room.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1233.9 - 200-WMA 

*RES 1: $1229.2 - High July 18

*PRICE: $1218.2 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1211.1 - 2018 Low July 19 

*SUP 2: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 

*SUP 3: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017 

*SUP 4: $1180.7 - Weekly Low Jan 27 2017

*COMMENTARY: Gold continues to gain traction below the 200-WMA with bears

initially focused on $1204.6 July 2017 lows. The Bollinger base ($1219.9) is the

key concern for bears with potential to limit follow through. The lack of follow

through on fresh 2018 lows is less than ideal with daily studies now at O/S

levels. In saying that, Bulls still need a close above $1236.6 to gain breathing

room and above $1260.2 to return initial focus to $1271.3-1272.6 where the

100-WMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]