MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Ian Stannard

     LONDON (MNI) - MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

     DOLLAR-CANADA: TECHS: Downtrend Intact Below 1.3039. USDCAD bounced off of

its descending channel support level on Friday, but remains within its

downtrend. Bulls will need a break above Friday's high of 1.3039 to suggest a

base is forming, and a move above 1.3096 to shift the outlook bullish. On the

downside, channel support comes in at 1.2955, just ahead of the long term up

trendline support from January at 1.2931. A break below here would trigger a

more significant bearish signal, bringing the 1.2819 area in to play.

     DOLLAR-CANADA: MNI KEY LEVELS

*C$1.3191    Jul24 high

*C$1.3168    Jul25 high

*C$1.3107/09 Hourly high Jul25/50-dma

*C$1.3090/96 55-dma/Jul31 high

*C$1.3050/70 Hourly resistance

*C$1.3039/40 Aug3 high/Aug2 high

*C$1.3019    Intraday high Asia

*C$1.3005 ***Current market price 0456GMT MONDAY***

*C$1.2988    Intraday low Asia

*C$1.2968    Aug3 low

*C$1.2962/57 100-dma/50% C$1.2528-1.3386

*C$1.2926/22 1.618% swing C$1.3065-1.3290/Jun8 low

*C$1.2892    May21 high

*C$1.2884    76.4% C$1.2729-1.3386

*C$1.2819    200-dma

     AUSSIE TECHS: Range Trading Continues AUDUSD has edged lower from Friday's

highs of 0.7412 and this will act as the first line of resistance, albeit with

the clearly defined larger range. A sustained move above here would restore the

bullish picture, shifting the focus to the upper end of the recent trading

range, where the next layers of resistance are formed at 0.7466/86. Holding

above 0.7370 is now required to maintained the renewed positive momentum, while

failure risks a slip back to the lower end of the range and major trendline

support at 0.7324.

     AUSSIE: MNI KEY LEVELS

*$0.7535/37 100-dma/61.8% $0.7677-0.7311

*$0.7494    50% $0.7677-0.7311

*$0.7465/84 2018 daily falling resistance/Jul9-10 highs

*$0.7463/64 Jul26 high/Jul25 high

*$0.7441    Jul31 high

*$0.7429    Aug1 high

*$0.7408/12 Intraday high Asia/Aug3 high

*$0.7391 ***CURRENT MARKET RATE 0450GMT MONDAY***

*$0.7389    Intraday low Asia

*$0.7348/43 Aug3 low/Jul18 low

*$0.7327    61.8% $0.6827-0.8136/1.618% swing $0.7370-0.7441

*$0.7323    Support line Jul2

*$0.7318    Jul20 low

*$0.7311    2018 low - Jul2

*$0.7289    Jan6 2017 low

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Targeting 127.15 The break below the key 55-DMA support

level on Friday, which now sits at 129.17, has led to further chart damage and

bulls will need to recovery this level to shift the short-term outlook back to

neutral. The EURJPY decline has already extended below the previous recent low

at 129.13, opening the way for the developing downtrend to be extended towards

127.15 initially. The May 29 lows all the way down at 124.62 would come into

play on a break below 127.15.

     EURO-YEN: MNI KEY LEVELS

*Y131.11/15 Aug1 high/Jul31 high

*Y130.30    Aug2 high

*Y129.54    Aug3 high

*Y129.25/32 Wkly Tenkan line/55-dma

*Y129.17/21 50-dma/Wkly Kijun line

*Y128.99    Hourly high Aug3

*Y128.76    Intraday high Asia

*Y128.70 ***CURRENT MARKET RATE 0445GMT MONDAY***

*Y128.52    Intraday low Asia

*Y128.50    Jul4 low

*Y128.30    50% Y124.62-131.99

*Y128.11    Jun8 low

*Y127.92    Jun28 high

*Y127.89    1.618% swing Y129.13-131.15

*Y127.44    61.8% Y124.62-131.99

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact For Now Friday's losses have

shifted the short-term picture neutral, albeit within the broader bullish trend.

Channel support on intraday charts comes in at 111.09, and bears need a break

below this level and the 55-DMA at110.67 to shift the medium-term outlook

bearish. On the upside, gains back above 111.86 are now needed to refresh the

bullish picture suggesting a retest of Wednesday's highs at 112.15.

     DOLLAR-YEN: MNI KEY LEVELS

*Y112.25/35 Hourly congestion Jul19-20

*Y112.15/18 Aug1 high/61.8% Y113.17-110.59

*Y112.00    Hourly highs Aug1

*Y111.87    Aug3 high

*Y111.57/68 61.8%-76.4% Y111.87-10

*Y111.48    50% Y111.87-10

*Y111.36/39 Intraday high Asia/38.2% Y111.87-10

*Y111.34 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 0432GMT MONDAY***

*Y111.15/10 Intraday low Asia/Aug3 low

*Y111.07    Hourly low Jul31/Rising channel support Mar26

*Y110.76/75 50-dma/Jul31 low(initial BOJ react)

*Y110.67    55-dma

*Y110.59    Jul26 low

*Y110.30/28 Jul9 low/Jul4 low

*Y110.04/03 61.8% Y108.11-113.17/200-dma

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above 0.8958 Needed To Confirm Bullish Continuation

EURGBP continues to trade in a tight contracting range, albeit slight downward

trajectory from the August 2 highs. Bulls need a break above these highs at

0.8958, which also marks downtrend resistance from the June 20 peak, to confirm

the continuation of the larger bullish trend. On the downside, bears need to

break back below the bottom of the ascending channel, which comes in at 0.8880,

to shift the short-term outlook back to neutral, and a close below 0.8855 to

turn the outlook bearish.

     EURO-STERLING: MNI KEY LEVELS

*Gbp0.8964/67 50% Gbp0.9307-0.8621/2018 High Mar7

*Gbp0.8958    Jul20 high

*Gbp0.8947    Jul23 high

*Gbp0.8936    Jul31 high

*Gbp0.8925    Aug2 high

*Gbp0.8919    Aug3 high

*Gbp0.8903    Intraday high Asia

*Gbp0.8895 ***CURRENT MARKET RATE 0424GMT MONDAY***

*Gbp0.8890    Intraday low Asia

*Gbp0.8890    50% Gbp0.8855-0.8925

*Gbp0.8882-72 61.8%-76.4% Gbp0.8855-0.8925

*Gbp0.8855/50 Aug2 low/Congestion area Jun28-Jul17

*Gbp0.8843    Jul17 low

*Gbp0.8820/19 200-dma/Jul15 low

*Gbp0.8791    100-dma

     CABLE TECHS: Rally Fails To Alter Bearish Picture GBPUSD continues to hover

around the 1.30 level after Friday's rally failed to overcome any meaningful

resistance levels, suggesting focus will remain to the downside in the coming

week. Indeed, failure to regain the 1.3064 level will leave the bearish picture

in place suggesting a retest of the 1.2974 and 1.2958 lows. Below here the lower

boundary of the major descending channel at 1.2915 is likely to be targeted.

     CABLE: MNI KEY LEVELS

*$1.3173    Jul31 high

*$1.3139/44 Hourly high Aug1/Aug1 high

*$1.3125    Init. BOE react high

*$1.3092/01 Hourly high/Broken support now resistance

*$1.3064    Hourly high Aug2

*$1.3038/43 Hourly high Aug3/Aug3 high

*$1.3021    Intraday high Asia

*$1.2993 ***CURRENT MARKET RATE 0418GMT MONDAY***

*$1.2993    Intraday low Asia

*$1.2976    Aug3 low

*$1.2965    1% volatility

*$1.2958    YTD low - Jul19

*$1.2909/06 Sep5-1 2017 lows

*$1.2860/57 Falling support May29/1.618% swing $1.3050-1.3363

*$1.2834    2% volatility

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Approaching Range Lows EURUSD remains below the former

triangle support, now trendline resistance at 1.1602, with Friday's rally

failing to break back into the previous range. The next downside target will be

1.1575, but the June 21 lows at 1.1509 are looking increasingly likely to be

revisited in the near term. A break below here would suggest further losses as

the long term downtrend resumes. The bulls will need to stage a recovery through

1.1656 to stabilise the near-term outlook.

     EURO-DOLLAR: MNI KEY LEVELS

*$1.1756/60 23.6% $1.2555-1.1509(2018 range)/Resistance

*$1.1746/50 Jul31/Jul23 high

*$1.1700    Aug1 high

*$1.1668/70 Aug2 high/50-dma

*$1.1632    NY high Aug2

*$1.1611    Aug3 high(Initial react NFP)

*$1.1574    Intraday high Asia

*$1.1563 ***Current market price 0407GMT MONDAY***

*$1.1557    Intraday low Asia ($1.1560 Aug3 low)

*$1.1544    1.618% swing $1.1621-1.1746

*$1.1533    1.618% swing $1.1560-1.1604

*$1.1520    Reported support on approach

*$1.1509    2018 low Jun21

*$1.1500    Option linked support

*$1.1467    1.618% swing $1.1575-1.1750

--MNI London Bureau; +44-203-865-3820; email: Ian.Stannard@marketnews.com