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MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Fire In The Hole

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Fig. 1: Sep & Dec ‘22 FOMC Meeting Dated OIS (%)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

UK

FISCAL: Liz Truss has said she will use an emergency budget to "ensure support is on its way" amid soaring energy bills if she becomes prime minister - despite repeatedly saying she favours tax cuts over handouts. (Sky)

ENERGY: Millions of households will soon discover how high energy bills will go in October as regulator Ofgem announces a new price cap. A household in England, Wales and Scotland using a typical amount of gas and electricity currently pays about £2,000 a year. That annual bill is predicted to soar to more than £3,500, leaving many struggling or unable to pay. The announcement is expected from Ofgem at 07:00 BST on Friday. (BBC)

BREXIT: Liz Truss is considering plans to trigger “Article 16” proceedings against the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol within days of entering Downing Street if she succeeds Boris Johnson as prime minister next month, according to several government insiders. (FT)

EUROPE

ECB: The European Central Bank could soon start talks on ending reinvestments of cash maturing in its 3.3 trillion euro ($3.3 trillion) Asset Purchase Programme, but a decision is not urgent and is unlikely to be taken next month, sources close to the discussion said on Thursday. (RTRS)

RATINGS: Potential sovereign rating reviews of note scheduled for after hours on Friday include:

  • Moody’s on Belgium (current rating: Aa3; Outlook Stable)
  • S&P on Austria (current rating: AA+; Outlook Positive)
  • DBRS Morningstar on Portugal (current rating: BBB (high); Positive Trend) and Slovakia (current rating: A (high); Stable Trend)

U.S.

FED: St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard on Thursday said he expects high inflation to be more persistent than many have been expecting and interest rates now are not yet high enough to begin curtailing price pressures. (RTRS)

POLITICS: A redacted version of the affidavit used to obtain a search warrant for former President Donald Trump’s Florida home will be unsealed Friday, a federal magistrate judge ordered. (CNBC)

OTHER

U.S./CHINA: Talks between Beijing and Washington to avoid the delisting of about 200 companies from New York stock exchanges are gaining steam with a plan to let American inspectors travel to Hong Kong to review Chinese businesses’ audit documents. (BBG)

U.S./CHINA: The U.S. government said on Thursday it will suspend 26 China-bound flights from the United States by four Chinese carriers in response to the Chinese government's decision to suspend some U.S. carrier flights over COVID-19 cases. (RTRS)

U.S./CHINA/TAIWAN: A U.S. lawmaker on the Senate Commerce and Armed Services committees arrived in Taiwan on Thursday on the third visit by a U.S. dignitary this month, defying pressure from Beijing to halt the trips. (RTRS)

U.S./CHINA/TAIWAN: China's aggressive military drills around Taiwan in response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit put Washington on edge, but not enough to spur an immediate sharp increase in weapons sales to the island, sources told Reuters. (RTRS)

CHINA/TAIWAN: China wants to harass people and stop people from showing support for Taiwan, Foreign Minister Joseph Wu says at briefing in Taipei. (BBG)

JAPAN: Japanese wages are unlikely to grow as much as nationwide consumer prices over the coming year, almost 80% of economists said in a Reuters poll, which would be bad news for an economy that has hardly seen any real wage growth for more than two decades. In a sign of further gloom, the world's third-largest economy will likely expand at a much weaker pace than previously thought this quarter, the poll showed, as it braces for fallout from a slowdown in the United States, China and Europe. (RTRS)

JAPAN: Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party plans to conduct a nationwide investigation of its lawmakers’ ties to the Unification Church, Yomiuri reports, citing unidentified senior party officials. (BBG)

JGBS: Now, the Chinese government could induce a sharp weakening of the yen by merely hinting it will sell JGBs. Unlike a decade ago, there is no visible reason for Beijing to be accommodating to Japan. Japan's massive debt underscores its vulnerability. To prevent China from taking advantage of that Achilles' heel, Japan must take steps to prevent its fiscal situation from deteriorating further. (Nikkei)

RBNZ: New Zealand’s central bank may be nearing the end of its aggressive tightening cycle as Governor Adrian Orr highlighted emerging signs that consumption is beginning to cool. (BBG)

NEW ZEALAND: Fonterra has lowered its forecast milk payment to farmers for this season after global prices fell. (Stuff NZ)

SOUTH KOREA: South Korea's vice finance minister said on Friday the government will deploy necessary measures to stabilise foreign exchange markets if needed, as the dollar-won trading could show herd-like behaviour. (RTRS)

SOUTH KOREA: A South Korean court temporarily suspended Joo Ho-young as ruling party’s interim co-chair pending review of an injunction request by former party leader Lee Jun-seok, who was suspended for 6 months over an alleged scandal. (BBG)

BOC: The Bank of Canada on Thursday said it was revamping its management structure by making one of the six spots on its rate-setting governing council a part-time role. (Dow Jones)

BRAZIL: Presidential front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s campaign is growing concerned about winning over the middle class, a key constituency in Brazil’s election, as his lead in polls stalls just weeks ahead of the vote, according to three people close to the candidate. (BBG)

BRAZIL: Former leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who spent 19 months in prison on bribery convictions, promised on Thursday to crack down on corruption if elected in Brazil's October election. (RTRS)

BRAZIL: Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro said he already agreed with the Economy Minister Paulo Guedes that, if reelected, his Administration will propose in Congress the maintenance of Auxílio Brasil social aid at 600 reais per month in 2023. (BBG)

RUSSIA: The International Atomic Energy Agency and other world bodies need to act much faster to force Russian troops to leave the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday. "Every minute that Russian troops remain at the nuclear power station there is a risk of global radiation catastrophe," he said in a video address. (RTRS)

RUSSIA: The International Atomic Energy Agency could travel on a mission to Ukraine's Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine in the next coming days, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko said on Thursday. "A visit is planned. We are talking about the coming days - this is definitely no later than the beginning of September," Galushchenko told Reuters in an interview in Kyiv. (RTRS)

RUSSIA: Russia should agree to a demilitarized zone around Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which has been in Russian hands since March, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Thursday. (RTRS)

RUSSIA: Russian government included two local companies controlled by Siemens Energy - Siemens Gas Turbine Technologies and Siemens Energy LLC - in the list of companies that foreign investors can only sell with a special presidential permission, Kommersant reports, citing unidentified people familiar with details. (BBG)

MIDDLE EAST: U.S. air strikes this week against Iran-linked targets in Syria were carried out to protect and defend American personnel and disrupt a series of attacks against the United States and its partners, President Joe Biden said on Thursday. (RTRS)

ARGENTINA: Opposition lawmakers in Argentina’s congress are calling for impeachment proceedings against President Alberto Fernandez for comments he made Wednesday about a federal prosecutor, according to La Nacion newspaper. (BBG)

METALS: Maike Metals International Ltd., one of China’s biggest copper importers, said it’s seeking help from the government and financial institutions to alleviate “liquidity difficulties” that have caused it to delay some payments on cargoes. (BBG)

GAS: Siemens Energy, which carries out maintenance work for turbines used to pump gas through Nord Stream 1, said on Thursday there was no new status regarding maintenance or potential maintenance of equipment linked to the pipeline. (RTRS)

CHINA

CORONAVIRUS: The Chinese customs says that simplification of health declaration procedure for inbound visitors isn’t loosening of requirements on Covid tests and quarantine, according to a customs statement. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: A county neighboring Beijing has been locked down after finding one preliminary positive Covid case, the second time this week an area close to the capital has used the measure in a reflection of mounting efforts to curb transmission. (BBG)

PROPERTY: Second-tier and smaller Chinese cities will up the pace of a wider relaxation of home purchase and loan restrictions, in addition to lowering down payments following the State Council’s call to better meet housing demand by allowing cities to implement differentiated loan policies, Yicai.com reported, citing Tao Chuan, analyst at Soochow Securities. While policymakers remain cautious about relaxing housing market regulations in first-tier cities under the principle of “housing is for living not speculating”, Du Haomin, analyst at Sinolink Securities, believes this round of easing may need to be led by major cities as many smaller cities have already relaxed restrictions to a certain degree, Yicai noted. (MNI)

MARKETS: China aims to complete all preparations “as soon as possible” to open commodity futures, commodity option and index option products to QFII and RQFII, China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice Chairman Fang Xinghai said in Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum. (BBG)

PROPERTY/CREDIT: A plan by Chinese authorities to provide state guarantees for some developer bonds is picking up steam, after helping to fuel one of the strongest rallies in the nation’s junk bonds this year. (BBG)

CHINA MARKETS

PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA OMOS, LIQUIDITY UNCHANGED

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY2 billion via 7-day reverse repos with the rate unchanged at 2.0% on Friday. This keeps the liquidity unchanged after offsetting the maturity of CNY2 billion repos today, according to Wind Information.

  • The operation aims to keep liquidity reasonable and ample, the PBOC said on its website.
  • The 7-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) rose to 1.7540% at 9:56 am local time from the close of 1.4512% on Thursday.
  • The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index closed at 61 on Thursday vs 49 on Wednesday.

PBOC SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 6.8486 FRI VS 6.8536

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 6.8486 on Friday, compared with 6.8536 set on Thursday.

OVERNIGHT DATA

JAPAN AUG TOKYO CPI +2.9% Y/Y; MEDIAN +2.7%: JUL +2.5%
JAPAN AUG TOKYO CORE CPI +2.6% Y/Y; MEDIAN +2.5%; JUL +2.3%
JAPAN AUG TOKYO CORE-CORE CPI +1.4% Y/Y; MEDIAN +1.3%; JUL +1.2%

NEW ZEALAND AUG ANZ ROY MORGAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 85.4; JUL 81.9
NEW ZEALAND AUG ANZ ROY MORGAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE +4.3% M/M; JUL +1.7%

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index lifted a little in August but remains at very subdued levels. Households are not happy about higher living costs and with interest rates rising rapidly, are understandably concerned about the economic outlook. Homeowners are seeing the value of their largest asset going backwards. However, offsetting that to some extent,in a super-tight labour market incomes are looking secure –and are currently rising rapidly. (ANZ)

MARKETS

SNAPSHOT: Fire In The Hole

Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:

  • Nikkei 225 up 184.77 points at 28663.95
  • ASX 200 up 74.772 points at 7122.90
  • Shanghai Comp. up 2.791 points at 3249.039
  • JGB 10-Yr future up 14 ticks at 149.65, yield down 0.6bp at 0.225%
  • Aussie 10-Yr future up 10 ticks at 96.405, yield down 9.3bp at 3.581%
  • U.S. 10-Yr future -0-05+ at 117-19+, yield up 2.79bp at 3.054%
  • WTI crude up $0.82 at $93.34, Gold down $2.39 at $1756.35
  • USD/JPY up 32 pips at Y136.81
  • FED'S BULLARD: INFLATION LIKELY TO BE MORE PERSISTENT THAN EXPECTED (RTRS)
  • DECISION TO END ECB REINVESTMENTS TAKES BACK SEAT TO RATE HIKES (RTRS SOURCES)
  • LIZ TRUSS SAYS SHE WILL USE EMERGENCY BUDGET TO 'ENSURE SUPPORT' AMID SOARING BILLS (SKY)
  • RBNZ’S ORR SIGNALS AGGRESSIVE TIGHTENING CYCLE NEARING END (BBG)
  • U.S. SENATOR ARRIVES IN TAIWAN, DEFYING ANGRY BEIJING
  • SPIKE IN CHINA TENSIONS WON'T CHANGE U.S. TAIWAN WEAPONS POLICY, FOR NOW (RTRS SOURCES)

US TSYS: Cheaper In Asia As Region Sets Up For Jackson Hole

Fairly skittish Tsy trade was observed in the final Asia-Pac session of the week, with most participants seemingly happy to sit on the sidelines ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Friday address.

  • That has made for narrow ranges, with TYU2 last -0-06+ at 117-28+, 0-00+ off the recently registered session low, while ~50% of that contract’s 78K volume is attributable to quarterly roll activity. Cash Tsys run 1.0-3.5bp cheaper across the curve, with the space unwinding some of Thursday’s richening as 7s lead the weakness.
  • Market participants continue to assess the potential for a Powell pivot, although the recent rounds of Fed messaging seem to have played down the chances of an outright dovish swing (the Fed has already noted that it will slow the pace of tightening at some point, in addition to some expressing worry re: over-tightening via FOMC meeting minutes).
  • The full Jackson Hole symposium schedule is available here.
  • Also be on the lookout for various Fed speakers appearing across the usual TV networks throughout the day, in addition to July PCE data and the final UoM survey for August.

JGBS: Off Best Levels As We Work Through The Day

Bulls failed to test a recovery of the overnight peak in futures, leaving the contract +11 vs. yesterday’s settlement levels as we work towards the Tokyo close. Meanwhile, cash JGBs run little changed to 1bp firmer across the curve.

  • The initial richeneing impulse observed in the super-long end has faded a little, aided by a combination of the light cheapening seen in the U.S. Tsy space and the firmer than expected Tokyo CPI prints that we covered earlier.
  • Note that the Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food and energy metric is still comfortably below the BoJ’s 2.0% target (printing at +1.4% Y/Y in August), with the Bank continuing to reaffirm its on hold stance as the current inflationary pressures are dominated by cost-push, not demand-pull factors, leaving the Bank pointing to the need for a continued and elongated extension of more notable wage growth.
  • Issuance wise, a Y75bn multi-tranche round of samurai paper from Mexico (flagged earlier this week) provided the highlight.
  • Looking ahead, Monday’s domestic docket is pretty empty, with only lower tier economic data releases due.

JGBS AUCTION: Japanese MOF sells Y4.56696tn 3-Month Bills:

The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells Y4.56696tn 3-Month Bills:

  • Average Yield: -0.1134% (prev. -0.1295%)
  • Average Price: 100.0283 (prev. 100.0323)
  • High Yield: -0.1062% (prev. -0.1162%)
  • Low Price: 100.0265 (prev. 100.0290)
  • % Allotted At High Yield: 26.3366% (prev. 48.9934%)
  • Bid/Cover: 2.930x (prev. 2.608x)

AUSSIE BONDS: Building On Overnight Gains

ACGBs have built on the lead from the overnight richening in Aussie bond futures despite a downtick in U.S. cash Tsys, with the 10-Year AU/U.S. yield spread 6bp narrower on the day as a result, albeit operating well within the confines of the recent ranges

  • Cash ACGBs run 8.5-10.5bp richer across the curve, with the 10- to 12-Year zone leading the way higher.
  • YM and XM are +9.0 and +10.5 respectively, recording fresh session highs at writing. EFPs have narrowed, with the 3-/10-Year box steepening, while Bills run 1 to 9 ticks richer through the reds.
  • The latest round of ACGB Apr-29 supply went smoothly enough, with little reaction seen in ACGB trade.
  • Next week’s AOFM issuance slate will see A$1.5bn in ACGBs and A$2.0bn of Notes on offer. Aussie bonds edged higher after the release, possibly on the reduction to the DV01 on offer when compared to this week (A$916K across two ACGB auctions vs. A$1.539mn across three auctions this week).
  • Monday will see July retail sales headline the domestic data docket.

AUSSIE BONDS: The AOFM sells A$700mn of the 3.25% 21 Apr ‘29 Bond, issue #TB138:

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) sells A$700mn of the 3.25% 21 Apr ‘29 Bond, issue #TB138:

  • Average Yield: 3.4492% (prev. 0.9258%)
  • High Yield: 3.4550% (prev. 0.9275%)
  • Bid/Cover: 2.9286x (prev. 4.7750x)
  • Amount allotted at highest accepted yield as percentage of amount bid at that yield: 2.0% (prev. 47.8%)
  • Bidders 57 (prev. 32), successful 20 (prev. 12), allocated in full 17 (prev. 4)

AUSSIE BONDS: AOFM Weekly Issuance Slate

The AOFM has released its weekly issuance slate:

  • On Wednesday 31 Aug it plans to sell A$1.0bn of the 1.75% 21 November 2032 Bond.
  • On Thursday 1 Sep it plans to sell A$1.0bn of the 11 November 2022 Note, A$500mn of the 16 December 2022 Note & A$500mn of the 10 February 2023 Note.
  • On Friday 2 Sep it plans to sell A$500mn of the 0.25% 21 November 2025 Bond.

EQUITIES: Cautiously Higher Ahead Of Powell

Most Asia-Pac equity indices are in the green at writing, loosely tracking a positive lead from Wall St. Regional equities have regained some poise just ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s address at Jackson Hole, with a gauge of Asia-Pac stocks set to close higher for a second consecutive day after a five session streak of lower closes prior.

  • The Hang Seng deals 0.7% firmer after opening higher, just shy of fresh one-week highs. China-based tech followed their U.S. listings higher on news of progress in Sino-U.S. talks to resolve well-documented audit disputes, with the likes of Alibaba (+2.0%) and Baidu (+3.5%) catching a bid (noting that the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closed 6.3% higher on Thursday).
  • The CSI300 is virtually unchanged at writing, back from as much as +0.6% earlier. The consumer staples (+0.8%) sub-index contributed the most to gains, offsetting steep declines in energy (-2.3%), with the CSI300 Real Estate Index (-0.6%) showing weakness as well.
  • The ASX200 is 1.0% better off, on track to close higher for a third straight session. The major miners outperformed, sitting 1.3-3.0% firmer apiece at writing, adding to a strong showing from the healthcare sub-gauge (+1.3%). On the other hand, high-beta tech has lagged (S&P ASX All Tech Index: +0.1%), with participants likely sidelined ahead of impending event risk from Jackson Hole.
  • E-minis are 0.1% worse off apiece at writing, having failed to break above their respective best levels observed on Thursday so far.

OIL: Firmer In Asia; Potential OPEC Supply Cut Gains Momentum

WTI and Brent are ~$0.70 better off apiece, building on a move away from Thursday’s session lows at writing. Both benchmarks remain on track to record a higher weekly close, with attention turning to the upcoming speech from Fed Chair Powell.

  • To recap Thursday’s price action, both benchmarks reversed gains to close ~$2 lower apiece after hitting fresh, multi-week highs, with the move lower aided by hawkish Fedspeak ahead of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, exacerbating worry from some quarters re: a Fed-led economic slowdown.
  • Elsewhere, the case for cuts to OPEC+ production quotas continues to build, with current OPEC Pres. Itoua expressing support for the move on Thursday in comments to the WSJ. Looking ahead, OPEC+ will next meet on Sep 5.
  • The sole remaining mooring point at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) Black Sea terminal has passed inspection, with the reduced loading capacity nonetheless remaining sufficient for now as major Kazakh oil fields have lowered their output.

GOLD: Back From One-Week Highs; Powell’s Keynote Eyed

Gold operates ~$3/oz weaker to print ~$1,755/oz, extending a pullback from one-week highs ($1,765.5/oz) made on Thursday.

  • To recap, gold backed away from best levels amidst remarks from Kansas City Fed Pres George (voter) re: the Fed holding rates above 4%, with the move lower aided by a limited recovery in the USD (DXY), seeing gold ultimately end ~$7 firmer for a third consecutive higher daily close.
  • The precious metal is on track to close a little higher for the week, holding on to the bulk of last week’s ~$55 decline ahead of the freshly-commenced Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • The conference will provide the key risk event for gold, with focus centred on Fed Chair Powell’s keynote address later on Friday, coming as Sep FOMC dated OIS have priced in roughly even odds of a 50bp vs. 75bp rate hike at that meeting over the past week.
  • From a technical perspective, gold has broken initial resistance at ~$1,762.2/oz (20-Day EMA), exposing further resistance at ~$1,777.2/oz (50-Day EMA). On the other hand, initial support is situated at $1,727.8/oz (Aug 22 low).

FOREX: U.S. Dollar Outperforms Ahead Of Powell Speech, Kiwi Slips After Orr Remarks

The U.S. dollar outperformed at the margin, with all eyes on the upcoming keynote speech from Fed Chair Powell at the central bank's annual economic forum in Jackson Hole. The BBDXY index firmed but held a tight range, with regional players parsing hawkish Fed comments doing the rounds on the eve of Powell's speech.

  • USD/JPY added a handful of pips, as U.S. Tsy yields edged higher across the curve, and last trades at Y136.66. Note that $1.4bn worth of options with strikes at Y136.95-10 will roll off at today's NY cut.
  • The yen showed limited, if any, reaction to a set of stronger than expected Tokyo CPI figures, a bellwether of national price dynamics. Core prices rose 2.9% Y/Y this month, beating the median estimate of 2.7%. The strong outturn is unlikely to affect the BoJ's thinking as the Policy Board deems the recent intensification in price pressures to be of cost-push nature.
  • Growth proxies were generally weaker, with participants wary of taking up more risk ahead of the Powell speech. The kiwi dollar paced losses as Gov Orr suggested that the RBNZ's tightening campaign may soon start slowing amid signs of cooling consumption.
  • The PBOC repeated a pushback against yuan depreciation, albeit with diminished resolve. The mid-point of permitted USD/CNY trading band was fixed 56 pips below the expected level, following a 120-pip miss on Thursday. USD/CNH bounced after a reaction dip and last trades ~90 pips better off.
  • Today's economic calendar is heavily U.S.-centric, with Fed Chair Powell set to deliver his Jackson Hole speech. The final reading of Uni. of Mich. Sentiment, flash wholesale inventories as well as monthly personal income/spending figures will take focus on the data front.

FX OPTIONS: Expiries for Aug26 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

  • EUR/USD: $0.9850(E2.3bl) $1.0000(E1.5bln), $1.0049-55(E1.1bln)
  • USD/JPY: Y134.00($550mln), Y136.95-10($1.4bln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.2870-85($698mln)
  • USD/CNY: Cny6.8500($576mln)

UP TODAY (Times GMT/Local)

DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
26/08/20220600/0800*DE GFK Consumer Climate
26/08/20220600/0800**SE Unemployment
26/08/20220600/0800**SE PPI
26/08/20220645/0845**FR Consumer Sentiment
26/08/20220800/1000**IT ISTAT Business Confidence
26/08/20220800/1000**IT ISTAT Consumer Confidence
26/08/20220800/1000**EU M3
26/08/20221230/0830**US Personal Income and Consumption
26/08/20221230/0830**US Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
26/08/20221400/1000***US Final Michigan Sentiment Index
26/08/20221400/1000US Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole
26/08/20221500/1100CA Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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