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MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight, Jul'23

EUROZONE DATA

Our review of July's preliminary Eurozone inflation data (see link below) includes breakdowns and analysis of the national inflation prints, and some sell-side reactions.

  • Eurozone July flash headline HICP printed 5.3% Y/Y and -0.1% M/M (vs 5.5% Y/Y and -0.1% M/M prior), roughly in line with expectations. But core HICP was 5.5%, unchanged from June, and a touch above expectations of 5.4%.
  • Monthly core HICP and services inflation remained steady at a high rate, but MNI calculations indicate that momentum across all key inflation components fell in July.
  • Overall the July report leaves a September ECB hike in the balance, with too little disinflationary progress for comfort, but leaving enough ambiguity about the persistence of price pressures to reconsider further tightening.

FULL PDF ANALYSIS HERE

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