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MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight - October 2023

EUROZONE

Our review of October's preliminary Eurozone inflation data has just been published and includes breakdowns and analysis of the national inflation prints, and some sell-side reactions.

  • Eurozone flash inflation for October printed at an unrounded +2.91% (vs +3.1% cons; +4.34% prior), the first time the headline has been below 3% since August 2021.
  • Disinflation was seen in all major sub-components, with energy base effects playing a large role in pulling down the headline as expected.
  • The core reading was in line with the 4.2% estimate coming into the week however was probably higher than expectations coming into the print given national-level category data, with services disinflation relatively moderate on a Y/Y basis.
  • MNI's calculations indicate core, services, non-energy industrial goods and food momentum moderated further in October.
  • At a country level, the October Y/Y prints were lower in 17/20 countries. Only Estonia, Greece and Spain saw accelerations vs September - and Spain's was still softer than expected.


PDF ANALYSIS HERE



Source: MNI, ECB, Eurostat

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