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About Us
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI ASIA OPEN: 25Bp Cut Still Expected From FOMC Wednesday
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Ylds Climb to 3W Highs Ahead FOMC
MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – April 2024
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Underlying Eurozone inflation is expected to dip again in
April, with core HICP
declining for a 9th consecutive month to 2.7% Y/Y (2.9% prior), though headline is set to stall at 2.4%
Y/Y (2.4% prior). In short, services price disinflation is expected to drag
core inflation lower, while headline is set to be underpinned by Y/Y upticks in
energy and food prices.
- A reading in line with consensus would provide further “confidence that inflation is converging to the [inflation] target in a sustained manner” (per the April monetary policy statement) for the ECB to start cutting rates as expected in June, and indeed, even a modest upside miss might not be enough to push back the initial cut.
- As our review of the April ECB meeting put it, even if price data does not materially improve by June, as long as there is no significant reversal, the ECB will initiate the first cut. However, we are reaching a point in the inflation cycle in which the underlying dynamics will be increasingly scrutinised to see whether the progress seen so far is on track to continue, and therefore how much further the ECB can cut beyond the first move.
- Our preview includes analysis of price categories to watch, assessments of underlying inflation trends, outlooks for the French, German, Spanish, and Italian national inflation prints, and sell-side analyst previews.
FOR FULL PDF ANALYSIS:
Eurostat, ECB, MNI
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.