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MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – Aug 2024: Olympic Effect Eyed

The Eurozone August flash inflation round is not likely to deter the ECB from delivering a 25bp rate cut in September

HomepageInflation InsightMarketsEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market News

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Eurozone August flash inflation round is not likely to deter the ECB from delivering a 25bp rate cut at its September 12 meeting, but will help inform the guidance around the likely path for policy into year-end.
  • Headline inflation is expected to ease to 2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior) in August, with downward energy base effects making a (brief) return.
  • Core inflation meanwhile is seen easing slightly to 2.8% Y/Y (vs 2.9% prior), driven by another slight moderation in core goods inflation, with services set to remain steady or even accelerate on an annual basis.
  • The Olympic Games in Paris did not appear to have a meaningful impact on French (and therefore Eurozone) services inflation in July, but several analysts are wary that such effects will show up in August’s data.
  • Our preview includes analysis of price categories to watch, assessments of underlying inflation trends, outlooks for the French, German, Spanish, and Italian national inflation prints, and sell-side analyst previews.

PDF analysis here:

August2024EZCPIPreview.pdf

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Eurozone August flash inflation round is not likely to deter the ECB from delivering a 25bp rate cut at its September 12 meeting, but will help inform the guidance around the likely path for policy into year-end.
  • Headline inflation is expected to ease to 2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior) in August, with downward energy base effects making a (brief) return.
  • Core inflation meanwhile is seen easing slightly to 2.8% Y/Y (vs 2.9% prior), driven by another slight moderation in core goods inflation, with services set to remain steady or even accelerate on an annual basis.
  • The Olympic Games in Paris did not appear to have a meaningful impact on French (and therefore Eurozone) services inflation in July, but several analysts are wary that such effects will show up in August’s data.
  • Our preview includes analysis of price categories to watch, assessments of underlying inflation trends, outlooks for the French, German, Spanish, and Italian national inflation prints, and sell-side analyst previews.

PDF analysis here:

August2024EZCPIPreview.pdf