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MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – August 2023

EUROZONE

Progress, But ECB’s Job May Not Be Done

  • The upcoming round of Eurozone inflation prints for August (Aug 30-31) will arguably play the key role in deciding whether the ECB decides to hike rates at the September meeting (currently just under 50% probability of a 25bp raise, per market pricing).
  • Eurozone headline HICP is seen softening to 5.1% Y/Y from 5.3% in August - with core at 5.3% vs 5.5% prior.
  • August flash data in line with consensus is seen providing support for a pause in the ECB deposit rate at 3.75%.
  • he more dovish ECB elements may point to a reduction in momentum in inflation in recent months, including in key underlying metrics (see report for MNI’s analysis).

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