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MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview: June 2024

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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Summer Services Key To September Cut

  • With the ECB’s long-anticipated rate cut on June 6 finally out of the way, the Governing Council’s requirement for further disinflationary progress to make its next reduction puts immediate attention on June’s flash inflation reports due for release between Jun 27-Jul 2.
  • Since the June flash inflation round is split across two weeks, there is not yet a Bloomberg consensus for the Eurozone-wide print. Based on the previews we have seen, analysts expect a 0.1pp deceleration in both core and headline Euro-area inflation in June to 2.8% Y/Y and 2.5% respectively
  • Familiar dynamics in the ongoing broad deceleration in price pressures are expected to be at play: food and core goods inflation should continue to moderate, while services remains sticky (and above the 4.0% handle).
  • Our preview includes analysis of price categories to watch, assessments of underlying inflation trends, outlooks for the French, German, Spanish, and Italian national inflation prints, and sell-side analyst previews.

FOR FULL PDF ANALYSIS:

June2024EZCPIPreview.pdf

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Summer Services Key To September Cut

  • With the ECB’s long-anticipated rate cut on June 6 finally out of the way, the Governing Council’s requirement for further disinflationary progress to make its next reduction puts immediate attention on June’s flash inflation reports due for release between Jun 27-Jul 2.
  • Since the June flash inflation round is split across two weeks, there is not yet a Bloomberg consensus for the Eurozone-wide print. Based on the previews we have seen, analysts expect a 0.1pp deceleration in both core and headline Euro-area inflation in June to 2.8% Y/Y and 2.5% respectively
  • Familiar dynamics in the ongoing broad deceleration in price pressures are expected to be at play: food and core goods inflation should continue to moderate, while services remains sticky (and above the 4.0% handle).
  • Our preview includes analysis of price categories to watch, assessments of underlying inflation trends, outlooks for the French, German, Spanish, and Italian national inflation prints, and sell-side analyst previews.

FOR FULL PDF ANALYSIS:

June2024EZCPIPreview.pdf