MNI EXCLUSIVE: China-U.S. Trade Talks Unlikely To Produce Deal

By Iris Ouyang

     BEIJING (MNI) - Planned new trade talks between China and the U.S. amid a

trade spat which has lasted more than two months are expected to end with little

in the way of solid results, trade experts advising the Chinese government told

MNI.

     "Despite plans to negotiate, I personally think the chance of a big success

or breakthrough is low," Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of

International Trade and Economic Cooperation under China's Ministry of Commerce,

told MNI in an interview Thursday.

     --DC VISIT

     China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Thursday that Vice Commerce

Minister Wang Shouwen will lead a visit to the U.S. later this month to discuss

China-U.S. trade issues with David Malpass, the U.S. under secretary for

international affairs at the Department of the Treasury.

     While MOFCOM says that the visit has come about at the invitation of the

U.S., Mei says that he's dubious about the sincerity of Washington's stated

desire to resolve the trade conflict.

     "The U.S. has not felt any obvious pain yet," Mei said. " There will not be

much sincerity in Washington's efforts to reach a deal. That will come only

after it feels obvious pain."

     Advisors of various other Chinese government departments have expressed

similar sentiments in previous interviews with MNI, suggesting that Beijing

should be wary of U.S. flip-flops in trade negotiations.

     A trade deal appeared to have been reached in May after Chinese Vice

Premier Liu He led a trade delegation to Washington, but the Trump

administration retreated from the agreement shortly after, fuelling China's

concern that any future deals could simply be torn apart.

     The advisors who spoke with MNI emphasised that fundamental disagreements

and long-existing conflicts are likely to continue in trade relations between

the two countries going forward.

     "The trade conflicts between China and the U.S. have accumulated over

time," said Bai Ming, deputy director of the Institute for International Markets

at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a MOFCOM

research body, in an interview with MNI on Thursday. "It's unrealistic to expect

that a one-time discussion would tackle all the problems."

     --PRELIMINARY TALKS

     According to other experts advising the Chinese authorities, the planned

talks will be of a preliminary nature and officials will focus on some technical

details, although market analysts expect it to pave way for future meetings

between higher-level officials.

     "It would be communication on the technical level," said Wang Haifeng,

director of international trade and investment at the Institute for

International Economic Research, which is affiliated with the National

Development and Reform Commission. "We should be cautious not to be fooled by

the Trump administration again."

     Bai Ming expects the agenda to be dominated by discussions over mutual

tariff actions taken thus far, as well as possible solutions to resolve the

trade war, but says that China should prepare for "difficult situations" such as

possible flip-flops by the U.S.

     Mei Xinyu noted that the U.S. may have also instigated the talks in an

effort to ease other tensions -- stemming from non-trade related issues -- that

have recently flared between Beijing and Washington.

     "The U.S. has taken action to damage U.S.-China trade and has also

intervened in China's governance of the restive Xinjiang province and included

China in its National Defense Authorization Act," Mei said, referring to the

NDAA bill signed on Monday by President Trump, which Beijing believes contains

negative implications for China. "In such situations, China and the U.S. need to

restore communication, which especially needs to be instigated by the U.S., to

prevent the collapse of bilateral relations."

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: iris.ouyang@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 207-862-7489; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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