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MNI EXCLUSIVE: Rate Cut Now Not In China's Interest: Advisors

MNI (London)
By Wanxia Lin
     BEIJING (MNI) - China should not follow the U.S. Federal Reserve and reduce
interest rates for the moment, although a gathering slowdown might make a cut
necessary in coming months, government advisors told MNI.
     The Fed's quarter-point move was a "hawkish rate cut" and has increased
uncertainty, said Xu Qiyuan, director of the Economic Development Division at
the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the China Academy of Social
Sciences.
     The dollar strengthened against the yuan following the Fed's action, he
noted.
     "The best timing for cutting the benchmark deposit and lending rates would
be when inflation is significantly lower," said Xu, adding that a cut could come
next year. "In terms of external conditions, we would want to see a weaker
dollar index and stabilisation of the yuan."
     --MLF EASING
     Any additional easing this year, possibly in November, is likely to come
via lowering the medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate, so as to guide the
loan prime rate (LPR) lower and ease corporate borrowing costs, Xu said. The
deposit rate would remain stable, he added. The LPR is the reference rate for
new bank loans.
     Niu Li, deputy director of the Economic Forecasting Department at the State
Information Center, an advisory group under the National Development and Reform
Commission, agreed that a rate cut is possible if Beijing's growth target comes
under threat.
     Weak industrial production and fixed-asset investment data in August have
led some analysts to reduce growth forecasts, but Niu is optimistic about
hitting the target, predicting expansion of 6.2% this year. While Q3 could see a
slowdown to 6.1% on sluggish factory output, activity should pick up in Q4,
thanks to base effects, recent policy easing and special-bond-financed
infrastructure investment.
     --INFLATION
     Both advisors believe that headline CPI, driven higher mainly by pork
prices, should be no constraint on any further easing unless it rises further.
Even though CPI hit 2.8% y/y in August, Niu pointed out that year-to-date CPI
sat at 2.4%, well within the annual 3% ceiling set by the government.
     Xu believes falling core CPI (1.5% y/y in Aug) and PPI (-0.8% y/y in Aug)
may argue for a rate cut, although the effects of African swine fever could push
headline CPI above 3% in December, and above 4% during Chinese New Year.
     "If the China-U.S. trade talks goes well, pork imports could be boosted by
two to three million tones," said Xu, "but that won't cover a shortfall of over
ten million tones."
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: wanxia.lin@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MMQPB$,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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