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MNI expectations for FQ1 issuance ahead of DMO consultation: Shorts

GILTS
  • There are 8 remaining short auctions (2 already announced, 6 in FQ4) with GBP35.1bln still due to be raised (GBP86.6bln target).
  • New 3-year gilt: Rather than reopening the 3.50% Oct-25 gilt, we think it’s more likely that the DMO launches a new gilt with a maturity around the 3-year area in FQ1. The maturity would most likely be between June 2026 and June 2027. The shorter part of this range is probably a bit too short for the DMO’s liking but there are already gilts maturing in July 2026, October 2026 and January 2027. The DMO hasn’t launched a gilt with a maturity outside of these three months or June since 2018. MNI expects 2 auctions of this new 3-year gilt in the quarter.
  • 4.50% Jun-28 gilt: MNI expects 3 reopenings of the short 5-year gilt that was launched in June. (In addition to the auction on 12 December).
  • 3.50% Oct-25 gilt: The DMO will conduct the first gilt auction of a gilt with a residual maturity of under 2 years next week (29 November). With that auction also set to take the nominal amount outstanding above GBP35bln we would be surprised to see any further outright auctions in FQ4 (although with strong demand for ultra-short gilts remaining strong we wouldn’t rule this out completely).
  • Other issues: If the DMO chooses not to launch a new 3-year gilt in the quarter we would expect to see at least one auction of the 4.125% Jan-27 gilt.
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