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MNI Fed Preview - December 2022: Forecasting The End

MNI Fed Preview - December 2022: Forecasting The End

MNI Fed Preview - December 2022: Forecasting The End

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The FOMC will step down the pace of rate hikes to 50bp at the December meeting.
  • But it will likely signal via the Dot Plot that it intends to tighten by a further 75bp to a terminal rate above 5% in 2023.
  • Chair Powell’s Nov 30 speech has recession-minded market participants eyeing substantial rate cuts in 2023-24.
  • This offers scope for Powell to push back against easier financial conditions at the post-meeting press conference.

Note to readers: MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Dec 12.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:

FedPrevDecember2022.pdf

MNI Expected Dec SEP "Dot Plot"

Source: MNI

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