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MNI Fed Preview - Feb 2023: Downshift, With “Ongoing” Concern

FED

Our latest Fed meeting preview has been published and emailed to subscribers. PDF analysis available here.

  • The Fed will downshift its rate hike pace in February for the second consecutive meeting, to 25bp from 50bp.
  • The dovish risks to this meeting appear at least partly priced in, including some expectations of Statement language acknowledging decelerating inflation, or a clear signal that the end of the hiking cycle is near.
  • However, there are many ways Powell could re-emphasize the FOMC’s view that the job is not nearly done yet.
  • Powell will again steer attention away from the pace of hikes and toward the terminal level (which the FOMC envisages as higher than the market does), while pushing back against rate cut pricing for H2 2023.
  • Note to readers: MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Jan 30
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