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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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- The November FOMC meeting is considered largely a placeholder for action at the December FOMC or beyond, but the Nov. 3 presidential and congressional elections could significantly alter the FOMC's outlook on monetary stimulus requirements.
- So for this meeting preview, we have decided to add in sell-side election previews, including (where applicable) what it will mean for the Fed outlook – including implications for fiscal policy and rates/Tsys [see pages 5-6 in PDF for our summary table, and pages 11-19 for summarized notes].
- Additionally, if the situation warrants, we will circulate a brief update prior to Thursday's FOMC decision, with any changes to sell-side views spurred by the election outcome.
- A 'Blue Wave' is broadly seen as a bearish result for US rates, due to expectations that it would lead to a large fiscal stimulus package early in 2021. Some on the sell-side, though, see the status quo as also being bearish for rates, with Republicans/Trump willing to pass stimulus in the near future in conjunction with House Democrats if re-elected.
- Several sell-side analysts said that an inconclusive election result that dragged out could potentially be the worst-case scenario in terms of market sentiment, and could force the Fed to intervene. This is especially the case as it would be seen as likely to delay the fiscal stimulus that FOMC members have assumed is coming at some point.
Most Analysts Anticipate A 'Blue Wave', But Not Fully Priced In
PredictIt Odds, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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